Posted on 04/13/2020 1:52:32 PM PDT by a little elbow grease
Perhaps the best thing that could come out of this entire debacle and turning America into a police state — where people are arrested for going somewhere in their cars and never leaving their cars — should be a total disdain for and disbelief in computer models.
The Imperial College of London model that terrified our largely scientifically illiterate politicos and therefore killed the world economy, like every other model that tries to model human behavior, assumed a spherical cow of uniform density in a frictionless vacuum.
Computer modeling can be incredibly useful, particularly when you’re modeling physics: an object dropped from such and such a place, which has such and such velocity, will impact on such and such a place with such and such force. However, as the mother and wife of STEM people for whom physics is a game and who create such models for fun, I know that the accuracy of the model depends on how much you put into it and how much of the real factors on that day, in that place, you can put in.
That spherical cow of uniform density in a frictionless vacuum has long been a joke among physicists, because of course cows aren’t spherical, nor do they have a uniform density, and a vacuum, such as we know it, is never frictionless. (Unless it’s in a small, contained enclosure, usually in a laboratory, a vacuum contains small particles.) And all of those variables mean that your model will be wrong if they’re not included in it. So, at its basis, if you’re designing a computer model for fun, or to settle a bet with your brother (yes, my family is weird), you can ignore all the variables. When you’re actually modeling a real-life situation, you cannot and should not.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
"Unfortunately, we have willfully and on purpose, over the course of the last 50 years, blinded ourselves to one of the most important factors when modeling disease in human populations: culture. We have taught our kids in school that culture is food and clothing, and sometimes -- but not always -- language, but that culture is inherently the same underneath those trappings.
That is what's assumed by those models, and it is enough of a lie to be a d*mned lie."
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God bless good writers ......
MOST countries of the world do NOT have multiculturalism, as in all of Asia, Africa, south of our border and most of Europe.
Example: How can the nation of Japan be MULTICULTURAL when everyone is JAPANESE?
The argument over models is becoming like the argument over ventilators. Something that people who do not understand or use them to place a unrealistic emphasis and have something to talk about.
This is all guesswork.
The Brazilian study has not shown at all that CQ is not effective.
But they have killed a couple of patients with excessively high dose, and thus unintentionally done the world a favor to demonstrate that even extreme overdoses are safe!
They also have wasted time by not including early non-severe cases in the study. Because it might just be too late to run after very severe cases with HCQ.
So much time is being wasted by not doing more informal studies quicker. There are so many patients that are lost that all could add to the evidence.
The Brazilian study has established that the malaria protocol for HCQ should be used, and that no study should waste any more patients and time on low-balling dosage.
800 mg once, followed by 400 mg after 6 hours, followed by 400 mg on day 2 and 3 and if you want a couple of more days.
This is safe, and can be done in outpatient settings and OTC.
Didier Raoult with 600 mg fractionated as 200 mg 3/d for 10 days is dosing too low, and I believe that azythromycin is effective in his case by a simple pharmacokinetic interaction, pushing his low dose over the limit. He should kick in with a higher loading dose. He also doesn’t need 10 days because that only titrates the patients to late-phase minor ECG-cosmetic AEs, if any. There is no point in reaching the highest plasma concentration at the last day of the 10 day treatment. Threre is no study at all that has shown convincingly that HCQ does not work. Only wastes of time with low-balling doses.
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