Posted on 04/15/2020 3:23:02 AM PDT by Kaslin
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.
“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.”
But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.
On the reasonableness of Israel’s unprecedented quarantine and closure, he commented to the news agency, “I think it's mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No. I don't see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic.”
While the American policies remain less restrictive than those of Israel, it is important to understand the origins of our own “mass hysteria” response. President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the U.K. But that model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who had a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models. Professor Ferguson was not known for his reliability, and his 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150,000 people could die in the U.K. from mad cow disease (177 deaths to date). Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original prediction.
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel has mathematically shown us that coronavirus closures were a mistake. It's a tough reality. Americans lost their jobs and businesses went under because the United States, along with most first world nations, acted on the chilling predictions of a severely flawed model, a reading of Professor Ferguson’s tarot cards. Hindsight is 20/20, so we have to be realistic with our criticism. President Trump did not want 2.2 million Americans to die and did what he thought was necessary to save our lives, relying on a model his advisors told him was trustworthy. It's done. It happened. But it doesn't mean that he should continue the course.
It’s been one month since our country declared a national coronavirus emergency and life as we knew it had ceased. Americans have become growing agitated, unwilling to continue in this way, knowing something is wrong. Trump has sensed that his constituency is displeased with the authoritarian power grab by our Governors and has repeatedly stated that he wishes to reopen the country, but that he needs more information to make the right decision. Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s data analysis provides Trump with the assurance that he needs to reopen America.
Mr. President, please review Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s research and take bold steps to mitigate the damage to our economy. Now that we see the actual data, continuing the closure course is a greater error, a knowing error, one that can no longer be justified by good intentions.
Fraud Fauci is just another part of the DEEP STATE COUP!
He’s not a Fraud
WHAT has he actually accomplished at the NIH???
Here’s the question: Why was this virus treated differently than Swine Flu in 2009?
That’s crappola! A virus has to have a host to live. If you have a population of 10,000 and do nothing, then eventually 10,000 will get the virus. If you quarantine half of them, then only 5,000 can possibly catch the virus.
Rather interesting findings but I would think that what would be more important is the infection rate. It would help to estimate how many of the population will contract the virus once exposed and to what degree will be their sickness level? That would tell the story of how overwhelmed the medical system would be, help estimate true death projections, and provide forecasts on economic issues. Telling us the life cycle of the virus only provides an end date.
As I remember Fauci has been wrong on almost every epidemic during his tenure in the US government, AIDS, MERS, SARS, H1N1 and Swine Flu. Holding a government post for decades guarantees neither competency or virtue. He is a fraud - either deliberately or because of incompetency which is convenient for his masters. To quote an old professor, it seems that Fauci suffers from delusions of adequacy.
Waiting for Hockey Stick McGee to comment on this.
We need to fight the disease and not the virus. Do you see the difference?
Perhaps this virus rides a host microscopic organism. There’s your complete weapon. When the host dies, the virus dies. That’s my theory.
To be very clear: he did NOT show that quarantine measures were unnecessary. What he showed is that the quarantine measures could take different forms and still be effective. It would take more study to determine what is most effective, but most likely the effectiveness is highly dependent on the culture. Because it is not only the social distancing (stay 6 feet/2 meters away from other people) that puts germ barriers between people, but the strict adherence to the social distancing policies. In a country where the government can say things like, “Stay 6 feet away from each other, wash your hands frequently, cough into your sleeve” and achieve a high level of compliance among the citizenry probably does not have to go to stricter measures. But in a country where a large fraction of the population questions and scoffs at such measures, where compliance is lower, more strictly enforced measures are probably necessary. Also, another factor in compliance would be the populace’s experience with dangerous infectious disease. Many Asian countries have had these experiences, so take warnings very seriously. Versus many Western countries where infectious diseases are taken so lightly that anti-vax movements thrive. There are a lot of factors in the mix here.
The testing was all very random and different in each country, charting progress is meaninglessness between countries. I know this guy thinks he sees something but he’s mistaken.
Stop it. We are bending and damaging society to conform with a model and not really fighting the disease. The worst of all possibilities.
I don’t even recall that there was a Swine Flu in 2009. I do remember reading or hearing on the News that there was one in 1976.
The linked story has a link to the original story.
Go there and the second half is Doc’s pushing back with “he has no data to support his views”. From people who shut down the world with “NO” data - just projections.
BINGO!! He’s the JOE BIDEN of NIH.....he’s never gotten anything right!!
No data to support his views. That’s an awful big club these days.
What changed and why.
I think the answers will be very instructive.
What do you mean by "get the virus"? Thousands will be exposed to it, but the first-line immunity of most will fight it off before it develops into illness.
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