Posted on 04/15/2020 3:37:51 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/14/2020 22:35 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information6: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Two Million and Counting... COVID-19
A little before midnight this morning, WorldoMeters numbers revealed we had passed the
two million mark of COVID-19 cases.
Article Reports: New York Adds “Presumed” Coronavirus Cases to Its Death Toll
Full Title:
New York Adds “Presumed” Coronavirus Cases to Its Death Toll
– 3,700 New Deaths Added Today in Revised Count
Evidently New York was sitting on a number of cases it needed to classify, and the
decision came down that they would classify them as COVID-19 related deaths.
Remember back to March 13th, when China did the same thing and dumped over 10,000
new cases on the books in one day. The three days before came in at 6733, 2,085,
7,126, and then 17,028. The three days after came in at 11,031, 13,847, and 12,158.
Here is a link to the article for New York's sitution. LINK
Changes Have Been Made to the States and Counties Report
It was mentioned that it might be helpful to have more information on the States
information sheets. I have added in the Deaths. I was going to add more, but the
data group I was going to use, didn't provide the Recoveries or Resolved Cases.
Because mortality will there there, I will discontinue the report deadicated
to deaths alone.
Studying the Way the Reports are Disbursed on Certain Days of the Week
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies by the day of the week for a while.
This report now resides down below the Saturation Rate and Infection Perecentage
figures at the bottom of the Global Section. A chart has been added.
Some notices I like to leave here for few cycles.
Johns Hopkins University Data Again...
Yesterday afternoon the Johns Hopkins Global Case Count dropped for some unknown
reason. It generally only goes up, so there was something going on. It had lost
over 10,000 global cases. I dropped the numbers from the nations in and found the
problem in under 60 seconds. France had been listed at 144,411 cases at 12:20
PDST. Around 15:30 I noticed it's number was 131,361. That was a drop of 13,050
cases.
At 23:36 that number has not been repaired. In addition JHU had an "under
construction" icon on the screen at their world map page, and it said "can't
access data".
So this morning I want you to realize the numbers are not rock solid. The Recoveries
number looks to be about 9,000 high compared to WoM. They are never even, even at
the best of times though.
I did come up with a decent global number of cases by taking the number JHU provided,
and adding back in the 13,050 missing cases from France. The report looked pretty
sound there. As for the global deaths, the figure looked sound. As for the
global recoveries, it came in about 9,000 high compared to WoM. So I kept the
same number from the 18:43 report. That was right in the neighborhood with WoM
numbers. As for these types of figures for the Global Outside China and the U. S.
areas, those looked pretty sound. All in all, I'm pretty comfortable with the
numbers I wound up with. We're talking very close to two million cases here, so
even an error of 5 to 10 thousand cases, won't affect the percentages by much.
We're talking about a quarter to a half a percent, and I'm confident we aren't
seeing anything off by more than a couple of thousands.
Just know these things going in. If something looks better or worse than normal, take
these things into consideration. Hopefully we'll be back to normal this time
tomorrow. I will try to remind you if I notice an area this may have impacted.
the Mortality Report
The Mortality Figures Have Become of Interest Due to Perceptions of them Dropping
Here are the figures for the growing totals for four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/07 17 480 497 3,594
03/08 21 685 706 3,825
03/09 26 864 890 4,026
03/10 28 1,094 1,122 4,284
03/11 38 1,428 1,466 4,638
03/12 40 1,508 1,548 4,720
03/13 47 2,189 2,236 5,429
03/14 57 2,573 2,630 5,833
03/15 69 3,227 3,296 6,513
03/16 85 3,839 3,924 7,154
03/17 113 4,599 4,712 7,954
03/18 140 5,407 5,547 8,810
03/19 196 6,557 6,753 10,030
03/20 252 7,858 8,110 11,399
03/21 329 9,411 9,740 13,049
03/22 396 10,909 11,305 14,706
03/23 428 12,632 13,060 16,563
03/24 581 14,766 15,347 18,919
03/25 753 16,890 17,643 21,308
03/26 1,301 19,484 20,785 24,077
03/27 1,704 22,762 24,466 27,761
03/28 2,229 25,293 27,522 30,852
03/29 2,488 28,226 30,714 34,018
03/30 3,170 31,345 34,515 37,820
03/31 4,055 34,987 39,042 42,354
04/01 5,112 38,837 43,949 47,261
04/02 6,095 43,743 49,838 53,160
04/03 7,403 48,208 55,611 58,937
04/04 8,454 53,012 61,466 64,795
04/05 9,620 56,563 66,183 69,514
04/06 10,943 60,542 71,485 74,816
04/07 12,875 65,937 78,812 82,145
04/08 14,797 70,417 85,214 88,549
04/09 16,691 75,718 92,409 95,745
04/10 18,747 80,667 99,414 102,753
04/11 20,580 84,948 105,528 108,867
04/12 22,115 88,813 110,923 114,269
04/13 23,644 92,745 116,389 119,730
04/14 26,064 102,347 128,411 126,753
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Okay, looks like some growing figures there. I know that New York was goofing
around with their figures. That alone can change the U. S., the Global Outside
China, and the Global figures. I'm not sure if those numbers from New York even
affected the reported totals today. It would seem they would, but who knows.
At this point, I think it's best to see what happens tomorrow. I honestly think
we're doing good as far as cases and deaths starting to slow. I'm not that
bothered by one day.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/08 4 205 209 231
03/09 5 179 184 201
03/10 2 230 232 258
03/11 10 334 344 54
03/12 2 80 82 82
03/13 7 681 688 709
03/14 10 384 394 404
03/15 12 654 666 680
03/16 16 612 628 641
03/17 28 760 788 800
03/18 27 808 835 856
03/19 56 1,150 1,206 1,220
03/20 56 1,301 1,357 1,369
03/21 77 1,553 1,630 1,650
03/22 67 1,498 1,565 1,657
03/23 32 1,723 1,755 1,857
03/24 153 2,134 2,287 2,356
03/25 172 2,124 2,296 2,389
03/26 548 2,594 3,142 2,769
03/27 403 3,278 3,681 3,684
03/28 525 2,531 3,056 3,091
03/29 259 2,933 3,192 166
03/30 682 3,119 3,801 3,802
03/31 885 3,642 4,527 4,534
04/01 1,057 3,850 4,907 4,907
04/02 983 4,906 5,889 5,899
04/03 1,308 4,465 5,773 5,777
04/04 1,051 4,804 5,855 5,858
04/05 1,166 3,551 4,717 4,719
04/06 1,323 3,979 5,302 5,302
04/07 1,932 5,395 7,327 7,329
04/08 1,922 4,480 6,402 6,404
04/09 1,894 5,301 7,195 7,196
04/10 2,056 4,949 7,005 7,008
04/11 1,833 4,252 6,085 6,085
04/12 1,535 3,865 5,400 5,402
04/13 1,529 3,932 5,461 5,461
04/14 2,420 9,602 7,022 7,023
Here's the chart to go with it
The comments from above pretty much cover it here also. I'll be interested to see
what tomorrow brings.
Here's one more set of numbers, that address only the United States
Concept for this, courtesy of AppyPappy
They address the accumulating Mortality figures and the percentage growth daily
since 03/15/2020.
EOD ACCUM INCR
DAILY OVER DAILY
DEATH PREV PERCENT
DATE TOTALS DAY GROWTH
-
03/14 57
03/15 69 12 21.05%
03/16 85 16 23.19%
03/17 113 28 32.94%
03/18 140 27 23.89%
03/19 196 56 40.00%
03/20 252 56 28.57%
03/21 329 77 30.56%
03/22 396 67 20.36%
03/23 428 32 8.08%
03/24 581 153 35.75%
03/25 753 172 29.60%
03/26 1,301 548 72.78%
03/27 1,704 403 30.98%
03/28 2,229 525 30.81%
03/29 2,488 259 11.62%
03/30 3,170 682 27.41%
03/31 4,055 885 27.92%
04/01 5,112 1,057 26.07%
04/02 6,095 983 19.23%
04/03 7,403 1,308 21.46%
04/04 8,454 1,051 14.20%
04/05 9,620 1,166 13.79%
04/06 10,943 1,323 13.75%
04/07 12,875 1,932 17.66%
04/08 14,797 1,922 14.93%
04/09 16,691 1,894 12.80%
04/10 18,747 2,056 12.32%
04/11 20,580 1,833 9.78%
04/12 22,115 1,535 7.46%
04/13 23,644 1,529 7.46%
04/14 26,064 2,420 10.24%
This chart tracks the daily inrease over the previous day, the middle column there.
I'm really not sure what happened yesterday. Things were looking pretty good and then
this hickup. Obviously, if things continue in this direction, I won't be too happy
about it. There are some good signs taking place I'll touch on later on in this update.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rate Bumped Up a Bit
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 399,929 31,553 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
04/10 501,609 35,310 4,171
04/11 529,951 28,342 -6,968
04/12 557,590 27,639 -703
04/13 582,594 25,004 -2,635
04/14 609,516 26,922 1,918
We did see a bump upward here. Don't like seeing it, but I think it's going to be
seen as an outlier. I'd hate to be wrong, so fingers crossed.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
04/07 12,875 22,711 34,586 365,343 9,169
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011
04/10 18,747 27,314 46,061 455,548 10,917
04/11 20,580 30,502 51,082 478,869 11,471
04/12 22,115 32,634 54,749 502,841 11,766
04/13 23,644 36,948 60,592 522,002 12,772
04/14 26,046 38,820 64,884 544,632 13,473
We bumped up over the 2,000 fatalities line again. Not sure exactly why. New York
was reclassifying some deaths yesterday, and that may have cost us. I honestly
don't know. Again, lets see how it shakes out tomorrow.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
There are a number of factors than can have impact on why we have so many of the global
cases. Perhaps we're ramping up the testing more than others.
Here is what those numbers looked like at the end of the day yesterday. Maybe the virus
was here a lot earlier than we thought. It's hard to tell.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
04/10 29.523% 0.432% 37.363% 0.573%
04/11 29.812% 0.289% 37.872% 0.509%
04/12 30.124% 0.312% 38.500% 0.628%
04/13 30.332% 0.208% 38.714% 0.214%
04/14 30.537% 0.205% 39.364% 0.650%
The percentages of growth in our slice of the pie, are growing more slowly.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases have pretty much leveled off, Outside M/L China
I left a line here for several days that talked about continuing growth as
if we haven't seen any improvement. We have seen the size of the daily growth
kind of settle down. The fact is we are seeing some large numbers of new
cases, but it could be worse. Most days recently have seemed to offer some
hope.
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
04/10 1,616,016 96,055 12,763
04/11 1,694,570 78,554 -17,501
04/12 1,767,831 73,261 -5,293
04/13 1,838,067 70,236 -3,025
04/14 1,912,638 74,571 4,335
I am really liking the direction of those growth numbers. Today wasn't as good asFatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
04/10 99,443 299,451 398,894 1,217,122 49,692
04/11 105,528 326,847 432,375 1,262,195 50,485
04/12 110,928 352,960 463,888 1,303,943 50,735
04/13 116,389 375,551 491,940 1,346,127 51,035
04/14 128,411 407,858 531,269 1,381,369 51,490
Still expecting to see elevated numbers of recoveries any day now.
Beginning to think they aren't reporting recoveries very well. Looking back two
weeks, we were seeing many more new cases than we are seeing resolved now.
Grrrrrrrr...
Flattening...
There is flattening going on in the Global scene outside China and the U. S. Right now.
Lets review the situation again.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
04/07 83,630 52,077 31,553
04/08 87,552 52,321 35,231
04/09 83,292 52,153 31,139
04/10 96,055 60,745 35,310
04/11 78,554 50,212 28,342
04/12 73,261 45,622 27,639
04/13 70,236 45,323 25,004
04/14 74,571 47,649 26,922
While there was a little bump up today, I'm not bothered by a day here and there
that is disappointing. Tomorrow we'll be back on track... won't we?
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN The U K - 02/20 12 16 3 2 9 02/25 14 18 322 9 13 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 36 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 -- 164 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 459 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 1,553 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 5,067 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 -- 11,812 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 25,481 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 44,440 04/10 125,931 122,171 147,577 158,273 74,605 04/14 144,412 132,210 162,488 174,060 94,845 < 4 days not five - Deaths 15,729 3,495 21,067 18,255 12,107 - Populace 93.00m 83.02m 60.36m 46.94m 66.65m - C P M 1m 2,156 1,593 2,692 3,485 1,423 - D P M 1m 234 42 349 366 182
Just keeping an eye on these nations, and for the second day yesterday , we had
the U. K. added in.
Cases Per Million and Deaths Per Million figures help to compare nations.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. It doesn't seem like they
are doing too bad.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/11 10,151 6,191 2,905 6,409 04/14 11,445 6,706 3,161 6,623 < 3 days not five - Deaths 1,033 299 64 139 - Populace 10.33m 5.82m 5.53m 5.37m - C P M 1m 1,107 1,152 572 1,233 - D P M 1m 100 51 12 26
These cases grew over a respectable amount of time. Sweden doesn't look so bad
at all when you look at the Cases Per Million. It's the deaths that look worse.
That DPM number isn't what I'd call a super bad number. And their economy isn't
ready to retreat back to the late 1920s.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.16% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
1 nation(s) with 600,000 plus (take a bow...) 4 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 6 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 8 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 13 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 37 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999There are currently 73 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
That's a whole lot of nations there.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 - 96,134 - 479,758 - 28,499 - 28.237% - 1,219,261
04/11 1,777,666 78,647 513,239 33,481 28.872% 1,264,427
04/12 1,850,966 73,300 544,892 31,653 29.438% 1,306,074
04/13 1,921,369 70,403 573,019 28,127 29.823% 1,348,350
04/14 1,995,989 74,620 612,427 39,408 30.683% 1,383,562
Over the last ten days, the Global percentage of resolved cases has
There's another nubmer we should take note of this evening. It's the
number of active cases. Four days ago those cases grew by 67,635 case
per day. Yesterday they grew by 35,212 cases. The reason? It's the
percentages of resolved case that is growing. I want to see the count
of active cases start to fall again. That may happen in a week to ten
days, but don't be surprised if it happens sooner.
I keep touting the idea resolved cases will continue to grow. Yesterday
we saw the single largest growth in resolved cases to date. We had
39,408 resolved cases yesterday.
It's the observation of these types of things that tells me the bump up
in sangle day numbers isn't likely to be the new norm. There are some
signs that the tide is turning. In a week or two, I think we'll be
looking back on these days as just before the break-out. We'll see.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
04/10 102,782 376,976 479,758 1,219,261 49,833 ch 141
04/11 108,867 404,372 513,239 1,264,427 50,624 ch 139
04/12 114,269 430,623 544,892 1,306,074 50,856 ch 121
04/13 119,730 453,289 573,019 1,348,350 51,151 ch 116
04/14 126,753 485,674 612,427 1,383,562 51,603 ch 113
Big numbers, but shortly the big Recovery numbers will start coming in. Hey
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER CHANGE CHANGE
OF PEOPLE ON ON
ENTITY 04/14 04/13 04/12 04/14 04/13
-
Globally : 5,616 5,763 5,949 -147 -186
Outside China : 5,625 5,772 5,959 -147 -187
The U. S. A. : 607 633 657 -26 -24
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE CHANGE CHANGE
POPULACE ON ON
ENTITY 04/14 04/13 04/12 04/14 04/13
-
Globally : 00.0170% 00.0166% 00.0161% 00.0004% 00.0005%
Outside China : 00.0216% 00.0211% 00.0204% 00.0005% 00.0007%
The U. S. A. : 00.1648% 00.1580% 00.1522% 00.0068% 00.0058%
Hopefully within a week or so, we'll beging to see a better direction here.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Wk/of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon - 03/06 2,223 2,265 2,962 3,801 3,977 3,876 4,411 03/13 4,411 4,680 2,085 17,028 11,031 13,847 12,158 03/20 15,748 20,668 25,700 30,911 31,846 31,979 42,362 03/27 41,500 48,988 60,679 65,282 67,094 58,576 62,551 04/03 73,890 77,602 78,618 102,520 85,002 71,933 72,328 04/10 72,328 87,578 83,407 96,134 78,647 73,300 70,403 04/17 74,620
Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.
I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Alphabetical & by Case Number
Idea of adding more informaton here, courtesy of Presbyterian Reporter
This little report now provides the number of cases and the deaths. I was going
to add more, but the data set I needed to pull this from, didn't provide that
information.. It's an alphabetical and cases by declining number file.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. Both the states and the counties
come on one Excell spreadsheet.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report just list the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. The States and Counties are
included on the same Excel spreadsheet.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
Nice work, DoughtyOne. Your daily post is where I get my real news on the virus.
Texas has only 1 confirmed case for every 1,900 people and the growth rate in number of cases appears to be linear rather than exponential. It’s time to start opening things up IMO.
“....Evidently New York was sitting on a number of cases it needed to classify, and the
decision came down that they would classify them as COVID-19 related deaths....”
They pulled this out of their butts! They could classify virtually anything as a Covid-19 death.
“””Beginning to think they aren’t reporting recoveries very well. Looking back two weeks, we were seeing many more new cases than we are seeing resolved now.”””
I can understand why doctors are being cautious in declaring a person fully recovered. There is still some uncertainty about a person having a relapse. So a doctor likely wants a seemingly healthy corona patient, who has recovered, to lay low for an extended period.
I believe the two most important numbers to watch are deaths and serious/critical. When those two numbers start slowing, we can surmise the infected people are being diagnosed early in the stage of the disease and that treatments are working.
So far in the USA we are not seeing a slowdown in either the deaths and serious/critical numbers.
WOW!
You are clearly overqualified to work for the Federal Gov.
Lots of great info!
Thanks for the new numbers!
That looks like New York accounts for 33% of our cases, and 42% of our deaths. Our numbers look a lot better without those: 404,242 cases and 15,125 deaths. And I bet we would see more flattening without it as well.
I didn’t separate out New York City from NY state, although I’m sure I could have used D1’s County data to find the five counties of New York City. Guess I’m just too lazy. After all the work D1 does for us every day, this is the best I can do! I do have an orchard to fertilize, laundry to do, some bread to make, bills to pay. Is that enough of an excuse? On I need to brush the cats’ and dog’s teeth.
Good point.
And if you combine NY and NJ those two states are 44% of the cases and 52% of the deaths in the USA.
And if you further narrow the NY/NJ geographic area to a 25 mile circle centered at Times Square, the above numbers would be about the same.
For some reason New York City is a target for disastrous situations. It is the financial center of the world.
Anybody remember 911?
Thanks for doing the New York and New Jersey combo, that makes this even more compelling. What we can do with the information I don’t know, but it is interesting. I would like to just exclude all the Democrat States. For everything. Not just Coronavirus.
A few days ago I did a study of the top 20 states and DC in terms of deaths per one million population.
There were 16 Democrat led states and DC in the top 20 and only 4 Republican led states in the top 20.
I believe there is an obvious reason for such a result.
The Democrat led states like to spend their tax revenue on programs to benefit their Democrat base and ignore infrastructure and other issues that benefit the entire state without regard to political affiliation.
That is why the Democrats love ‘stimulus packages’ because they get ‘free money’ from the rest of us to improve their infrastructure and other issues benefitting the entire state. Of course, the ‘free money’ for infrastructure only happens after the Democrat leaders have syphoned off a large portion of the ‘free money’ for their Democrat base.
you’re making the numbers spin. nicely done.
re: the populations for France and UK
according to Worldometrs - mid-year 2020 - France = 65.2 and Uk = 67.8. The rest are close enough.
I’m still working the U.S. percentages of end of today’s new case increase over EOD yesterday total cases and that number keeps shrinking. today now @ .046 or 4.6%. 5 days ago it was .071 or 7.1%. 10 days ago it was .12 or 12%.
so as a percent of the total population, this virus is minuscule...
thanx again.
Sorry, I still don’t get how this affects the Coronavirus spread? Because these states spent there money on something other than infrastructure?
p
Besides not spending their tax revenue on infrastructure, in the case of New York they ignored their own health experts and spent no money on having a stockpile of medical supplies in case of a pandemic.
Now other states were equally guilty.
It would be interesting to know which of the 50 states had some sort of pandemic medical stockpile and which states did not.
I read an post from a freeper some days ago (i’ll never find it now) whose family member tested positive (or some relative IIRC) but was never sick enough to be hospitalized. There was no follow up on this person, docs checking, further testing etc.
So it’s a possibility that some who test positive but are not sick enough to be hospitalized may not be counted as recovered.
@doughtyone
Hey, I like that...
Thanks.
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