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To: Jane Long

Remember a few weeks ago when the Ohio doc said 100,000 infections in Ohio? This is the same idea. Maybe most people (99%) slough off the infection.


10 posted on 04/17/2020 5:54:22 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Cboldt

Yep, as I recall she was ridiculed...using the percentages from this antibody study upwards of 476,000 people in Ohio have had COVID & recovered or currently have COVID-19. (11,689,000 * .04).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1


16 posted on 04/17/2020 6:01:46 PM PDT by Drago
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To: Cboldt

Hannity with Breaking ... confirms that a full scale investigation taking place on the China flu....focusing on a biolab in china.


18 posted on 04/17/2020 6:02:53 PM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: Cboldt
Rolling On The Floor Laughing! Bhattachaya and company making ludicrous claims again to save their withering reputations.
They find a raw infection rate of 1.5% and TRIPLE it because of "zip code, race and sex" adjustments.
You could make the same adjustments with regard to cancer and find that the mortality rate from cancer or regular flu is 10 times lower.
They have cancer but they just don't know it! Where is your data Chinese propaganda expert? How can you lie like this ? Show some data!
Here's the data, with links to official sources. Date NYC Covid Deaths Pct of Average All-Cause deaths
4-4 387 2254 244.94%
4-5 218 2472 137.97%
4-6 266 2738 168.35%
4-7 806 3544 510.13%
4-8 716 4260 453.16%
4-9 518 4778 327.85%
4-10 651 5429 412.03%
4-11 313 5742 198.10%
4-12 440 6182 278.48%
4-13 1167 7349 738.61%
4-14 556 7905 351.90%
4-15 2462 10367 1558.23%
4-16 1110 11477 702.53%
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
Average number of deaths in NYC prior to 2020 158 per day
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day
NYC had 2,220 deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia in 2014
NYC had 11,377 deaths from Covid19 in the 36 days since March 11.
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam
Deaths per day from Covid in the last 7 days are from 2 to 10 times the average number of deaths from all causes.
Since March 11th NYC also had 9,348 deaths NOT attributed to Covid 19.
Since March 11th there have been 20,825 deaths in NYC, in 36 days.
Normally there would be 5,688 deaths.
The total number of deaths in NYC in the last 36 days is 366% of the normal number of deaths.
The number of Covid19 deaths is already 5 times the number of flu deaths in an entire average year (11,477/2,220)
Minimum Infection Mortality Rate based on NYC data
11,477 deaths in population of 9,000,000, approx .13% of total population has already died
NYC Cases 4-15 111424 Pct Positive 55.9152519
Total NYC tests 4-15 199273

IF 56% * 9,000,000 = 5,040,000 people are infected in NYC, Infection Mortality Rate is .23%
It is ridiculous to assume the percentage of infected among those with NO symptoms is the same as in those with symptoms, who are the only ones eligible to be tested.
Infection Mortality Rate calculation from Bergamo, Italy.
Province of Bergamo,population 1,112,000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province_of_Bergamo
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-deaths-insig/death-at-home-the-unseen-toll-of-italys-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN21N08X
Deaths in Bergamo as of 4/5/2020 official 2060 estimate 4500 (based on total deaths in excess of normal deaths)
Death rate assuming everyone is infected - official deaths - .19%
Death rate assuming everyone is infected - estimated deaths - .4%

Again it is unrealistic to believe that EVERYONE is Bergamo was infected, so .4% is the MINIMUM Infection Mortality Rate. This is a study of over 1mm people, not a cruise ship or small sample.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
Regular flu Infection Fatality Rate 2016-17
38,000 deaths from 29,000,000 SYMPTOMATIC ILLNESSES ONLY .13% Case Fatality Rate
Regular Flu Death Rate assuming everyone is infected 38,000/330,000,000 .011%
20 posted on 04/17/2020 6:05:08 PM PDT by brookwood (Obama said you could keep your plan - Sanders says higher taxes will improve the weather)
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