Posted on 04/19/2020 8:23:59 AM PDT by motoman
We need some big-data answers as to why New York/New York City mortality rates are so unnacceptably high.
Listen - this is not in any way an attack on the fearless people fighting this on the front lines. They have been in a living hell for going on 2 months.
Part of this may certainly be related to the stress on their hospital systems, although there is yet to be a shortage of hospital beds/ICU beds or ventilators reported.
But NYC is reporting a 7.5% death rate amongst positive cases. This is approaching Spain and Italy!!!
Spain and Italy came to these death rates with health care systems that were in many cases “collapsed” where anyone under 60 was often not even allowed to be admitted due to bed and ventilator shortages.
Another “possible” factor in those aged 45+ concerns medications which increase ACE2, such as to lower blood pressure, and cause a greater risk of a more severe reaction to COVID19. Probably will not know conclusively until after the pandemic is over and statistical study can be conducted. A number of British papers carried this story:
(also reported in Daily Mail)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11168074/medicine-millions-increase-coronavirus/
It all depends on what data you are looking at for mortality rate. You are looking at the CFR (Case fatality rate). With what is on worldometer for ny, as of today, is 17700 deaths 241000 cases for a CFR of 7% or so.. pretty high!! BUT what of another stat to look at called IFR Infection Fatality Rate. This is the total amt Of people infected. I am sure that there are many more people who have been infected in nyc. So if the death toll is still 17700 people BUT there have actually been 2410000 people infected it drops the IFR by a factor of 10. So in reality the mortality rate is actually 0.7%
Big difference
High density, illegal immigrants.
High population density, High mobility
Extensive international travel,
High dependency on mass transit
Increased High risk behavior
Oh yes, in your face types
Vaping
Dense population MIGHT account for increased infections, but the death rate per infection is higher in NY. I don’t think population density causes that.
An interesting comparison is two neighboring states: NC vs SC. SC has many more infections with a much lower population. But the urban areas are not where the high infection rates are in SC. The rural areas are the hardest hit. In NC it’s the cities that are hardest hit.
This thing behaves differently in different areas.
Definitely that is true. The commingling of true China virus deaths with influenza, and deaths from non infectious causes where China flu was present makes it much more difficult to understand what is really going on.
It is clear that there is a higher infection rate but is there really even a higher death rate?
IMHO - single biggest reason...the subway. It’s filth heaven. The virus probably built up in large quantities for weeks prior to the lock down, which was then too late. Even when they started to lock down, essential workers still used the subway but were still packed in because they ran fewer trains...which is probably protocol based on passengers (cost of business). What they should do is decrease the density of passengers - the opposite!
So millions that use the subway were being exposed to large doses, getting infected, and passing it on every time the used the subway. Nobody was wearing masks, unlike many Asian countries that rely on trains.
I think the amount of the dose you receive may be important. I’d be curious just how much of the virus was on everything...but now we’ll probably never know.
NYC is different in that the use of Hydroclorquine is banned. Ain’t central planning grand?
Maybe they’re conflating deaths as COVID deaths because they get more from insurance companies that way?
If we believe Dr. Birx chart yesterday, the countries registering a high number of deaths per 100,000 in Europe are in the range of 45 per 100,000.
New York STATE is at 60 per 100,000. The US as a whole is at 11 per 100,000.
New York City is probably around 100 per 100,000, double the highest rate in all of Europe.
I'm not going to make a value judgment whether or not that is in or out of line with the rest of Europe. The numbers are what they are, and ALL of them will rise. The statistic Birx chose to illustrate is a simple ratio of cumulative deaths (which is rising) to population, which is approximately a fixed number.
Correct
Europe as a whole is indicating a much worse mentality rate that the US
That’s been true for awhile now.
BINGO
They are fake figures,
Routine deaths from heart disease, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, and old age are being booked as coronavirus deaths on the orders of the Cuomo and DeBlasio. There is no mystery there.
Which is something the Left aching to impose on the rest of America.
Criminal charges need to be filed in whatever politician, etc. is responsible for that.
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