Posted on 04/19/2020 8:23:59 AM PDT by motoman
We need some big-data answers as to why New York/New York City mortality rates are so unnacceptably high.
“No matter how you cut the data, the mortality rate whether measured as deaths per 1 million residents or deaths per # of positive cases are far worse than the rest of the country, even other hot spots like Louisiana.”
There are a lot of uncounted cases, that’s why. The denominator being used is wrong.
If it’s population density New York is # 29, Tokyo is #20.
Also Tokyo has a higher percentage of elderly, the most vulnerable.
Death tolls are currently
All of Japan which has Tokyo (Bigger Population in 2/3rds area) and Osaka both denser than NYC .
Confirmed: 10,296
Deaths: 222
NYC Alone
New York City, New York, US
Confirmed: 135,527
Deaths: 13,157
29. New York, United States of America
> People per square mile: 28,363
> Population: 8.6 million
> Land area: 301.47 square miles
> Population change, 2005-2015: 2.8%
The densest city in America and a world financial center, New York’s population has continued to grow even though it is now completely unaffordable for the typical American household. The city’s most crowded neighborhood is the Upper East Side, with nearly 210,000 people. The Big Apple is home to over 700 skyscrapers and the sixth-tallest building in the world, One World Trade Center, which stands at 1,776 feet.
20. Tokyo, Japan
> People per square mile: 37,260
> Population: 8.9 million
> Land area: 240.09 square miles
> Population change, 2005-2015: 6.7%
One of the largest cities in the world, Tokyo’s population continues to grow despite the average family size shrinking. According to Japan’s most recent national census, the continuing population growth may be due to the number of elderly people increasing by 3.7% over five years, accounting for 22.9% of Tokyo’s population. The metropolitan area is the largest industrial, commercial, and financial center in Japan, with many international corporations headquartered in the city center.
A big reason their death rate, per 1000 positive cases is high is.........
The number of cases is in NY (and NJ and CT) is wildly underreported, compared to other states.
NY actually has tested more people, per thousand than any other state except RI. But in NY, and NJ the number of positive test results per thousand is off the charts.
In states like FL, TX, OH, CA, MD, they test about 10 people for every positive result. In that ballpark.
In NY its 2.5 people per positive. In NJ, its 2.
So you have many many people in New York who have the bugg, but aren’t being tested. Those people, mostly, dont have severe cases, so they live.
You keep using this word “rate”. I don’t think you know what it means. (apologies to Prince Bride).
Let’s say there are 10 People that live in Philly area, and 100 in the NYC metro area (total - that’s not the numbers but it is good for an example).
If 1 person in Philly dies, and 10 people in NYC metro area died, the RATE is IDENTICAL.
This is why you have to look at per 100,000 - to get a RATE.
Here is an interesting article. “Viral loading” does likely have influence on those who become symptomatic, but this virus is highly contagious and it may not take much if you are susceptible to it. This article also talks about “peak shedding”, which is how much of the virus you are putting out that can infect others.
There is a whole lot we do not know about this virus and that has created a lot of the hysteria because doctors have really struggled with treating patients and obviously our health experts have been all over the map in their assessments.
There are few things in the world more complex than the human body in terms of working parts, systems, and physiology!
Oops the link would help -
In Texas, HCQ+AZ is the standard f(or even outpatients) by Doctors who freely choose to recommend this to their patients. My family practitioner is prescribing it as well for outpatient treatment.
I personally think this may be one of the single largest factors behind New York’s high death rate.
Vast subway system.
The subways are the filthiest part of the city. The platforms are filthier even than the trains. The entire subway system needs to be completely and thoroughly rebuilt so it can be kept clean. Then NYC needs to spend the money to keep it clean.
The new Second Avenue extension of the subway is clean and well lit and somehow manages to stay that way. Everywhere else the filth hits you when you take that first step down from the street. Must be the world's most prolific incubator for germs and viruses (virii?).
One of these days neglect of the subway is going to kill an entire city and region. You can bet your bottom dollar the Wuhan virus is only the first of many more to come.
Phony numbers.
This.
“ That’s your answer - and in several months our ‘experts’ will figure it out.”
Oh, man did you say a load that could launch me off on a rant about “scientists” and “data driven” and “testing, testing, testing”. First off, I think you are right. And yes, in about five years of drawing high salaries, “the experts” will agree. “Experts” and “data” remove all human ingenuity and creativity out of their equation...and add a heavy dose of idiotic arrogance.
If you want a problem solved by trained experts using data, wait about 20 to 15 years and a few hundred million dollars and they’ll get to where your good common sense arrived at in 15 minutes and for free.
RE: If the virus was in the city in January when it was business-as-usual, then everyone in NYC has it.
If as you say everybody has it, then we should be seeing HIGHER mortality rates in an 8 million population plus 3 million in Long Island ( let’s say you exagerrate by 50%, 4 million people have it ). If so, the mortality rate isn’t that bad!
A big reason their death rate, per 1000 positive cases is high is.........
The number of cases is in NY (and NJ and CT) is wildly underreported, compared to other states.
NY actually has tested more people, about 30 per thousand, than any other state except RI (32 per thousand). But in NY, and NJ the number of positive test results per thousand is off the charts.
In states like FL, TX, OH, CA, MD, they test about 10 people for every positive result. In that ballpark. So the undercounting by failure to test infected people isn’t too bad.
But in NY its 2.5 people per positive. In NJ, its 2.
So you have many many people in New York (and NJ) who have the bug, but who cant get tested, because their symptoms aren’t bad. Those people who mostly dont have severe cases, so they live.
Of the New Yorkers In my family I know of four people who think they had it in February
The incidences of it in Queens in NYC are attributed to workers in and around the airports JFK (International) & LaGuardia.
Reichsfuhrer Wilhelm and his subways.
it absolutely is the reason why NY is higher- nearly 20,000 have died in NY alone- all of them practically were unnecessary deaths- almost all of them could have been saved by HCQ+ antibiotic + Zinc had they been treated before they had to go on ventilators
The executive order given by cumo in NY is directly responsible for almost all these deaths, and NY is guilty of negligent homicide
Unclean, filthy illegal aliens that have not been vaccinated against anything their entire life. Unhygienic animals.
IMHO of course
BTW
It is probably true that the subway system has been a big reason why NY’s has so many confirmed cases.
BUT, that wasn’t the important question that was asked here. The question was
Hy are the number of deaths in NY, per thousand of confirmed cases?
Again, the reason is that in NY you probably don’t get tested unless you have severe symptoms. That is the confirmed cases, for the most part, are in significant danger of death. That is far less true in states that do more testing per thousand of confirmed testing. Many of the confirmed in those states are more or less asymptomatic.
“1) Extensive travel from the Wusan epicenter by thousands of travelers to NYC/North Jersey major airports. The virus spreads to the local population.”
Wrong! It spread for NYC from Europe. About 80% of those infected in NYC have the Italian strain of the virus, not the original Wuhan strain. Italians were coming to NY through mid March with no screening!
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