I thought most people would be able to follow that logic. But I'll spell it out for you.
4% infected in LA county. 80% needed for herd immunity. That's 20 times. The posted excerpt didn't say how many hospitalizations. So I raised the question. Can LA handle 20 times the hospitalizations they already had.
Or if it doesn't spread too fast. Can they handle 5 times the hospitalizations they already had.
I think 11,000 more deaths in LA county is unacceptable. I'm not a fan of the "Let's get to herd immunity as fast as possible" approach. Especially with a disease that we still know too little about.
Who says only 4% have already had it? The testing is still in the early stages.
There’s a lot of anecdotal evidence out there that many people had an unusually bad “flu” in Dec-Feb, but survived ... what if that was the coronavirus? Plus, there’s also firm evidence that many people can get the virus and yet show no symptoms at all.
Put it all together, and a valid argument could be made that the actual amount of people who have already had it is probably more like 40-60%, maybe even higher
Danny, you mistakenly assume that the spread of the infection over that 80% is fixed. It is not.
Every percent you gain impacts the spread of the virus. That is why children are so essential in natures way of dealing with viruses. They are custom built to deal with an amazing amount of viruses over their lifetime and are your prime movers towards immunity. It is why we should have never shutdown schools.
Flattening the curve prolongs the duration. The only argument is surge capacity and we have plenty of capacity, today, right this minute, in the US.
I’ve understand your ‘logic’ and I totally dismiss it as the whinging of a frightened woman.
The fatality rate among those that have been infected is that of a bad flu season even without a vaccine. Historians are going to look back on this. and realize how stupid everyone was.
“There are few high-traffic businesses more densely populated than grocery stores. In fact, within the U.S. economy retail supermarkets have the highest foot traffic of any business sector in the entire economy; thatÂ’s just an empirical fact…. and the coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent. Now, stop and think about this logically & apply a large dose of common sense. Think about human-to-human interface.
First, with approximately 90 percent of the total U.S. population penetrating through grocery outlets; and with 100% of that massive number of consumers going through checkout lanes; if the COVID-19 viral strain was as significant as claimed by the worst-case data, then supermarket cashiers would have been the highest exposed profession of U.S. workers in the entire nation. There wouldn’t even be a close second place.
Considering that metric; and considering the overall population penetration & density within the business operation; there has not been an employee-based business disruption due to the coronavirus. Put another way: the coronavirus has not stopped the function of the highest human interface occupation in the entire U.S. economy.
Secondly, think about the businesses that are closed; perhaps think about your job that may have been shut down…. now frame your risk based on the supermarket example as highest human interface and highest population penetration in any business field.
If the #1 at risk industry has operated, essentially without disruption and with almost zero substantive mitigation, while carrying the largest population exposure rate, then all other less-exposed business operations would have significantly less operational risk.
Why would anyone be concerned about opening their business? If you take the factual outcome of the retail food industry as a measure, it would follow that other than a few proximity businesses which may need prudent modifications or remain temporarily closed (ex. modified airplane seating, concerts, stadiums or capacity seating venues etc), then all other businesses should immediately resume operations.
No other business segment within the economy is as exposed to the population as the retail food business; and yet supermarkets operated without issue.
So why shouldn’t all businesses immediately get back to work? Perhaps a few initial modifications might be needed; but not much, and not for long. Think about it....”
source https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/20/common-sense-and-human-interface-georgia-governor-brian-kemp-announces-phased-reopening-of-business-starting-this-week/#more-189620