Posted on 05/01/2020 6:35:11 PM PDT by BeauBo
Brigades loyal to Najaf cleric split from Popular Mobilisation Forces after efforts to wrest control from Iran-backed commanders fail.
An attempt by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani to wrest control of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces from Iranian-backed factions has ended with the national Shia leader giving a green light instead for the dismantling of the militia alliance, military commanders and officials have told Middle East Eye.
That process began last week when four armed factions associated with Sistani, the most senior cleric in the holy city of Najaf, were disengaged from the Popular Mobilisation Authority, which oversees the PMFs, and placed under tthhe direct command of the head of the Iraqi armed forces.
The four factions which were withdrawn were the Imam Ali Brigade, the Ali al-Akbar Brigade, the Abbas Combat Brigade, and the Ansar al-Marjiyya Brigade.
Their withdrawal is significant because the PMA was established by then-Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in June 2014 to coordinate the response to a fatwa issued by Sistani calling on Iraqis to join the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group.
(Excerpt) Read more at middleeasteye.net ...
Also, a lot of individuals might leave from the Iranian-sponsored groups to those loyal to Grand Ayatollah Sistani (an Iraqi nationalist). I'd expect the politicians to watch for this "voting with their feet", and assess the situation when a better count of gunmen is available.
Grand Ayatollah Sistani is the most influential, by far.
We did their dirty work against Saddam.
Ali Sistani is also, I suspect, the most rational Iraqi clerical leader in terms of power politics and in opposing Iranian interference/control of pro-Iran Iraqi militias.
Anything he does to neuter those pro-Iran militias is a gain for decent Iraqis and America (re a future relationship).
Sistani has always been a rival to the Iranian mullahs and the Quds force.
...............
Of the roughly 40 militias under the umbrella of the PMF/PMU, about 30 are loyal to Sistani.
..............
The Iranians directly pay the 10 militias loyal to Badr and Iran. Those Iranian led militias have fought well against ISIS but now have little work to do and are resorting to crime, mainly in Baghdad and shakedowns on the Iranian border.
............
So the new Iraqi government is incorporating most of the militias into the Iraqi Army. The complication is that those that don’t will have to disarm. Many of the Iranian led militias have better weapons than the Iraqi Army.
............
If the Iranian militias don’t disarm, there will be fighting because the Iranians want their loyalists to create an Iraqi version of the Iranian Guards.
..............
We are closely linked to 36 Commando out of Najaf and they are ready to force the point.
“If the Iranian militias don’t disarm, there will be fighting”
If Grand Ayatollah Sistani tells folks to quit those Iranian Militias, and the Government makes jobs available for them to slip right into, then a significant exodus from the ranks of the Iranian Militias will better set conditions for future operations.
Not only will the Iranian surrogates have less combat power and skills gaps, but they could end up fighting against former insiders, who know a lot about their organizations and operations. They will have the org chart and playbook.
“If the Iranian militias don’t disarm, there will be fighting”
If Grand Ayatollah Sistani tells folks to quit those Iranian Militias, and the Government makes jobs available for them to slip right into, then a significant exodus from the ranks of the Iranian Militias will better set conditions for future operations.
Not only will the Iranian surrogates have less combat power and skills gaps, but they could end up fighting against former insiders, who know a lot about their organizations and operations. They will have the org chart and playbook.
Iraqi unemployment runs around 8%, very high among young men. So jobs are hard to come by and Iran is paying them to be in a militia. Not much, about $500 a month average.
..............
However, those that go to Syria can earn up to $1,500 a month.
...........
The other phenomena is that many disconnected youth like the image and power of being in a militia. That was a big problem after the Afghans ran off the Russians, we had to deal with those dead-end muj for years.
The oil price crash is knocking both the Iranian and Iraqi economies (and Government budgets) for a loop.
They are looking at rough water ahead.
But therein also lies opportunity.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.