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Coronavirus Deaths: The Most Predictive Factor
American Spectator ^ | May 5, 2020 | y David Catron

Posted on 05/05/2020 11:59:37 AM PDT by where's_the_Outrage?

Your chance of dying from COVID-19 is notably higher if you live in a blue state.

There is only one reliable metric that reveals how likely you are to die from COVID-19 in a given state, and it isn’t what you’re seeing in the legacy media. The number of new cases and deaths, for example, are staples of news stories about the pandemic. Neither of these factoids, however, tells us very much in the absence of sophisticated epidemiological data that just isn’t yet available. A far more predictive metric is “death rate per million.” Why? Testing is far more consistent for fatal cases. By this measurement, you are probably more likely to die from coronavirus if you live in a blue state rather than one of its scarlet counterparts.

If you live in New Jersey, you are 13 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than if you live in Florida. The Garden State’s death rate per million is 895.2, according to the RealClearPolitics coronavirus tracker, compared to only 65.1 deaths per million for Florida. This disparity can’t be written off to demography or testing. Florida has a huge elderly population, and it has conducted twice as many tests as New Jersey. Finally, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis resisted the draconian stay-at-home orders imposed by his Democratic counterpart in New Jersey and hasn’t been afraid to point out that he was right:

(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: New Jersey
KEYWORDS: bluestate; coronavirus; redstate
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Article Rush referenced.
1 posted on 05/05/2020 11:59:37 AM PDT by where's_the_Outrage?
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

States really mean nothing.

It is localities.

New York City
Boston
Detroit
Chicago
New Orleans
Philadelphia
Indianapolis


2 posted on 05/05/2020 12:02:50 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

Population density of NJ: 1213/sq mile
Population density of FL: 353/sq mile


3 posted on 05/05/2020 12:05:57 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: ifinnegan

I’ll bet it correlates with the % of non-Whites too.


4 posted on 05/05/2020 12:07:54 PM PDT by blam
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To: ifinnegan

Don’t forget blue as blue can be Boston, MA. Right next door to the heart of liberal darkness and even darker blue, Cambridge, MA.


5 posted on 05/05/2020 12:14:34 PM PDT by glorgau
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To: DannyTN

Irrelevant. Parts of NJ are extremely sparsel. Parts of FL are extremely dense. Localities are the best way to look at it.

It sucks to be in a Blue city. Anywhere else is fine, even in NJ.


6 posted on 05/05/2020 12:16:07 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: ifinnegan

Yup. It’s where they’re packed in like sardines. Especially if they’re also dependent on public transportation where they’re even packed tighter.


7 posted on 05/05/2020 12:19:03 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!)
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To: DannyTN

Riddle me this, why does Taiwan, with 1,680 people per square mile, higher vthan NJ, have one of the LOWEST infection and death rates in the world? They haven’t had a new case the past week.


8 posted on 05/05/2020 12:23:50 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

Blue states are more urban. Duh.


9 posted on 05/05/2020 12:25:16 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: SeekAndFind

The wear masks. They social distance. They are germaphobes.

The learned their lessons from SARs 1.


10 posted on 05/05/2020 12:26:43 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: blam

Not even necessarily “non-whites”; foreigners in general (including white ones trafficked here to NJ) just seem a bit slower on the learning curve with this.


11 posted on 05/05/2020 12:29:08 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: DannyTN

The population density of Florida may be skewed by square miles of the entire state, but that entire area is not habitable. If you look at what the habitable area of a given state or city is vs. the population, it would be a much more realistic comparison.

The most apples to apples comparison might be large urban center vs. large urban center (say Miami beach vs. Newark - both are about 10,600 people per square mile).


12 posted on 05/05/2020 12:29:31 PM PDT by jurroppi1 (The Left doesn't have ideas, it has cliches. H/T Flick Lives)
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

In NY, if Covid doesn’t kill you the Cuomo taxes will.


13 posted on 05/05/2020 12:30:40 PM PDT by 1Old Pro (#openupstateny)
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

The most predictive factors are age and metabolic condition.

Of course the immune suppressed due to disease or treatment.

But metabolic condition is the one everyone can change, right now, if not for this one for the next virus or just for your own health.


14 posted on 05/05/2020 12:31:32 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

How about, areas where people live three generations to a rent controlled hovel in a walk-up 100 year old brownstone tenement, because it’s all they can afford, not being hedge fund managers or high dollar fudge packing big media finocchios? They get locked down in their hovel, and to go in and out of their ghetto rent controlled ancient tenements, they have to handle how many door handles or other surfaces that everyone else in the building also has to. And none of them tend to be in the habit of good sanitation.

Then, once even one person gets infected, it quickly spreads to everyone in the hovel, including grandma and grandpa, to whom the rent-controlled dump was originally assigned to years ago.

Tell me that doesn’t make some sense, given where the big hotspots are showing up.


15 posted on 05/05/2020 12:33:03 PM PDT by Mr. Rabbit
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

Whether you live in a care facility.


16 posted on 05/05/2020 12:36:23 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (BLACK LIVES MAGA)
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To: DannyTN

Florida has a much larger elderly population, too.


17 posted on 05/05/2020 12:36:26 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Tyrants don't just give you your freedoms back. You have to take them.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Lemme guess . . .

the average Taiwanese is smarter and much more responsible than your “typical” blue city residents


18 posted on 05/05/2020 12:38:14 PM PDT by A_Former_Democrat (Open up America! Enough! COMMUNISM was and IS the problem Boycott China)
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To: SeekAndFind

Island without bridges to other country or mainland. This makes border control better and spread less likely. SK is essentially an island because border with NK is sealed. Japan as well. These countries have more recent experience with outbreaks and they use masks routinely.


19 posted on 05/05/2020 12:39:29 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Civil disobedience by jury nullification.)
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To: where's_the_Outrage?

The difference is in the use of effective drug therapy like Hydroxy-chloroquine, Azithromycin and Zinc Vitamin. The Red states generally allow the use of this treatment without admitting a patient to hospital, but under a physicians care.

The blue states did not use the treatment except where there was hospitalization and a test regime, which many hospitals found to be too complicated, they didn’t bother.Or they administered HCQ too late in the progression of the disease to help much.

That explains the difference to me. Dr, Zelenko administered this treatment to 1450 patients with a success rate of 99.7 %.Dr. Zelenko is so successful that the DOJ lefty lawyers decided to investigate him for fraudulent claimns, just to shut him up.


20 posted on 05/05/2020 12:39:31 PM PDT by Candor7
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