More likely it is shifting to a new phase, where Iran relies more on domestic Syrian recruits and agents, and guides local surrogate organizations to survive off of the income of local rackets.
Still, they are being set back significantly, from the great momentum they experienced under Solemani's tenure - and every bit is a good thing.
Ping
defintely complicated
More likely it is shifting to a new phase>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Iranian mulahs have been weakened but they continue to poison the whole of Persia and as they get weaker, they become more dangerous.
Lets hope that patriotic Persians rise up against the Red Guard and the dirty old men who create this theocracy.
But right now the mullahs are convinced that their trial and tribulations are a sign that the 12th Imam is about to return.They listen at the well into which he disappeared and hear noises of rejuvenation and return ( camel farts and such). This will turn them into suicide soldiers, and so we properly let them rot on the vine, wound up tighter than church clocks.
President Trump is brilliant in his strataegy.
Unknown to most, President Trump also has China on the ropes.
The Hezbollah troops will soon run out of money, given most of that and their armaments come from Iran, leaving only some Syrians
Iran probably cannot afford to maintain a conventional full scale military presence in Syria. Yet it would be a mistake to believe that their activities in Syria will come to a complete halt. There is little doubt that Iran positioned Chinese made medium range mobile missiles targeting Israel in the remote Syrian wilderness. Now its up to Mossad to find them and destroy them.
The fact that they pumped up the production of oil was not to hurt the oil drillers in the US. They stated they wanted to punish Russia for not keeping to their agreed oil production. The real target was IRAN. Please remember that Iran shot missiles into the Kingdom less than a year ago. The Saudis never responded militarily at least as we know. They responded economically by trying to crush them when they were also hit hard by the Wuhan Flu.
“Looks like Iranian expansion in Syria is faltering”
I don’t think it is faltering. I think it is a sign of success, success at embedding Iran’s Syrian and Hezbolla allies into the Syrian official military organs and Syrian government institutions. The embeds are in tons positions both high and low. Someday they may have the ability to displace Assad, and Assad will not be able to go to Syrian Sunni groups for support as they dominate the Syrian opposition to Assad. He will have to take asylum in Russia. Iran and Russia will have converted Syria into their joint protectorate on the Mediterranean. And Assad, who invited them in, will be the loser.
As usual, Syria remains complicated. The fighting continues to shift.
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Assad/Syria/Russians are fully committed to the war in N Syria with Turkey. Iranian fighters and shia militants from Iraq are concentrated to that fight.
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That leaves S Syria/Hezbollah relatively wide open to Israeli air raids. And they are very effective. Iranian war materiel is being degraded as fast as it shows along with the trained operators.
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Iran’s failed economy is making it politically difficult to keep spending money in Syria. Iranians are largely turning away from that war.
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However, the Quds force has many independent sources of funding so that supply goes on.
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Iraqi, Iranian led militias are still heavily committed to fighting ISIS in W Iraq. Should ISIS be fully degraded, those fighters will likely shift to Syria. More importantly that will open up the rat lines into Syria so that Iranian war material can more stealthily get in country.
Whether this is a long- or a short-term move, the move itself is undeniable. And yes, it’s complicated. Unmentioned in the article is that those troops may be needed elsewhere - during the Green Revolution of 2009 Iran imported a lot of foreign muscle as well as recalling much of its own to provide internal security through the Bassij. Internal conditions in Iran continue to destabilize as a result of disease, crop failure, and especially the loss of oil income, itself due to the joint challenge of a diminution of Chinese demand and drastically lower prices. If the mullahs do have to fight it out, it will be in Tehran, not Aleppo.