Syria is effectively partitioned now. What is left to resolve is Assad’s hold on the northern enclaves under attack by Turkey. They may get partitioned away to Turkey and its militias.
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That would be a critical loss to Assad’s push to hold onto NE Syrian territories along the Turkish border. Those are currently patrolled by Russia and are quiet for now.
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Turkey has made a very risky move into the Libyan fight and it is bogging them down. Turkey also is staying away from the Russian-manned air defenses in N Syria.
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If the Turkish fight remains a stalemate and Assad continues to hold onto Alawite and Christian and Russian support, he can hang on, whether Iran support remains.
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Russia is desperate for their Syrian base at Tartus and is gradually moving more assets into the Med. I think that settling the ISIS fight in W Iraq will be the next tipping point.
“I think that settling the ISIS fight in W Iraq will be the next tipping point.”
Those tribes in the Anbar are so deeply indoctrinated with Wahhabism, it might take a generation to pass away, like the violent racism of the KKK in the South. They might be militarily subdued though for some time, if they don’t get foreign support (Turks, Gulf States).
Are military operations progressing well enough to achieve a significant pacification there, at some point soon?