Posted on 05/16/2020 4:57:32 AM PDT by Kaslin
Editor's Note: Timothy Craig Allen, MD, JD, contributed to this column.
Over 86,500 people have reportedly died in the United States from the Coronavirus, and the fear generated by those deaths is driving the public policy debate. But that number is a dramatic overcount. Our metrics include deaths that have nothing to do with the virus. The problem is even worse as the Centers for Disease Control over counts even some of these cases and the government has created financial incentives for this misreporting. Relying on these flawed numbers is destroying businesses and jobs and costing lives.
“The case definition is very simplistic,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. “It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death.”
Medical examiners in Michigan use the same definition. In Macomb and Oakland Counties, where most of the deaths occurred, medical examiners classify any deaths as Coronavirus deaths when the postmortem test is positive. Even people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that definition.
Still, these broad definitions are not due to a few rogue public health officials. The rules direct them to do this. Unlike other countries, “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” as Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, recently noted.
Classifications go beyond even these broad categories. New York is classifying cases as Coronavirus deaths even when postmortem tests have been negative. Despite negative tests, classifications are based on symptoms, even though the symptoms are often very similar to those of the seasonal flu. The Centers for Disease Control guidance explicitly acknowledges the uncertainty that doctors can face. When Coronavirus cases are “suspected,” they advise doctors that “it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate.”
That isn’t just a theoretical issue. On April 21st, when New York City’s death toll rose above 10,000, the New York Times reported that the city included “3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive” – a more than 50 percent increase in the number of cases.
But the problem is worse than this broad definition implies. Birx and others believe that the CDC is over counting cases. The Washington Post reports they are concerned that the CDC’s “antiquated” accounting system is double counting cases and inflating mortality and case counts “by as much as 25 percent.”
There are additional reasons for concern. Some doctors feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to the Coronavirus, even when they don’t believe that is the case, “to make it look a little bit worse than it is.” There are financial incentives that might make a difference for hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a 20 percent premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients.
Incentives matter. When the government increased the disability compensation for air traffic controllers, a lot more controllers suddenly started claiming to be disabled. When unemployment insurance payments increase, more people become unemployed and stay unemployed for longer periods. When the government offers flood insurance that charges everyone the same insurance premium regardless of the risk level in their area, more people build homes in frequently flooded areas.
The Washington Post and others claim that we are undercounting the true number of deaths. They reach that conclusion by showing the total number of deaths from all causes is greater than we would normally expect from March through early May, and that this excess is actually due to deaths not being accurately labeled as due to the Coronavirus. But these are simply not normal times. Lots of people with heart and other problems aren’t going to the hospital for fear of the virus. Surgeries for many serious conditions are being put off. The stress of the situation is increasing suicides and other illnesses.
Deaths that have absolutely nothing to do with the Coronavirus count as virus deaths. Add to that claims that the CDC is double counting some of these improperly identified cases and the perverse financial incentives created by the government, and you have a real mess when crucial decisions are being made based in large part on this data.
Erroneous data unduly scare people about the risks of the disease. It keeps the country locked down longer than necessary, which destroys peoples’ lives and livelihoods in many other ways. Exaggerated fears of the virus endanger lives by keeping people from obtaining treatment for other medical problems. It also makes it impossible to accurately compare policies across countries.
It is hard to believe that we are basing such crucial decisions on such flawed data.
This entire “pandemic” narrative is a scam of epic proportions! Completely driven by the Fake News!
fake doctors Brix and FauXi DECLARED that this
disease would be identified by symptoms and signs.
no more messy lab tests.
just fever and pain means all plane crashes and
car accidents are ...... COVID-19 to force
the immunization with the CDC/FauXi/Xi/Gates “vaccines”.
At least 50% died in convalescent homes,and probably more. Protect the vulnerable. People that are scared can stay in their homes and suck their thumbs but open the rest of this country like yesterday man!
yeah. Doctors all over the world are engaged in a gigantic conspiracy.
Ignore all those excess deaths.
I guess they can’t suck their thumbs cause they’ll be wearing masks.
I didn’t say people aren’t dying from COVID-19, but the numbers in the US and other places are being exagerated! This is being driven by the Left and the Fake News. If you can’t see that, that’s your problem.
An article filled with misrepresentations and falsehood. Who would have thought?
Pennsylvania had to revise it’s count downward after several county coroners cried foul.
Why should we not believe that the same is happening elsewhere?
Particularly when the Federal Government has created a financial incentive to pad the counts. When my great-uncle passed at age 94 New York State listed tobacco use as his cause of death to increase their share of the settlement money.
One this is over we will find Donald J Trump miraculously cured so many diseases outside of covid-19.
Obviously corona is deadly to some people, but not most.
As someone in the health profession, you would know how important accurate numbers are in an analysis, especially in the early stages when you’re planning a course of action.
Everyone can see and hear stories about the statistical misbehavior going on with this current situation. And you have to admit, a lot of those early projections were off, not just by a little, WAY off. And now we’re all suffering the economic consequences of those wrong predictions.
So, a lot of people have trouble trusting the numbers right now, justifiably. Just sayin’
Even when confronted with data that clearly point toward significant incentive and definitive inflation of numbers, you take the position that you are right. I won’t question that you are a doctor. I will question that you should still have a license. You have forgotten your first oath doc. Primum non nocere
.
We have several Fearbros on FR who claim to be doctors. Color me skeptical.
If they are it just reinforces my view that many doctors are incapable of thinking outside their narrow medical bubble (see: Fauci, Anthony)
BTW, Fauci gagged, what a beautiful image!
Exhibit A: If the Fearbros are right bodies ought to be stacking-up in the streets of Georgia like cordwood right now.
It’s unbelievable. This is a well written article. Sure is should be vetted but more and more this is being confirmed. The cdc reports under 50,000 deaths. There is a clear advantage to over counting not the least of which is to promote fear and allowing tyranny
The newer oath of Hippocrates has a clause in it about a physicians duty and role to society. Clearly he violates this. Everyday. He does not keep an open mind. I have admitted many times where I am wrong as the science and data unfold. He cannot.
And he posts his grotesque head up the ass meme everyday when he is just engaging in transference.
“Ignore all those excess deaths.”
Excess deaths you say? How is our overall death rate in 2020 down from 2019, 2018 and 2017 for the same period?
There are no “excess deaths” only deaths, and we’re down year over year, regardless of cause.
The big joke is that even with the over counting the number is paltry.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.