Garbage In, Garbage Out

Townhall.com ^ | May 17, 2020 | Derek Hunter

[Kaslin]

The only way to learn anything from an experience is to have accurate information about it when you’re through it. It’s called “learning from your mistakes.” People do it all the time. It’s how we get better as human beings. Thomas Edison reportedly said, “I didn’t fail. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work,” about creating the lightbulb. Politicians, on the other hand, are incapable, or at least unwilling, of learning from the mistakes they’re making because they believe they’re benefiting from the disinformation. And we’re all going to suffer because of it.

How many people have died from COVID-19? You can cite the official numbers, which vary depending on your source. They’re horrific, of course, but are they anywhere close to accurate?

Dr. Anthony Fauci testified this week that the number is probably higher, Dr. Deborah Birx, it was reported last week, thinks the number may be inflated by as much as 25 percent. Who is right? We don’t know.

Fauci didn’t cite much beyond his belief, which doesn’t hold that much water considering he’s held opposite positions on everything from the wearing of masks to whether or not coronavirus was a serious threat to Americans during the early stages of the pandemic. Birx didn’t cite much either, sharing an equally bad track record of prognostication.

The truth is we have no idea.

Back in March, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidelines that nearly ensured anything we could learn from this pandemic, either to help us now or help people in the future, would be absolutely worthless.

A directive entitled, “New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths,” concluded with how to count deaths. It reads, “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.” The part in bold was done by them.

What does that mean? It means that if tests weren’t conducted on people who died with any of the countless, ever-evolving symptoms assigned to coronavirus, count them anyway. It doesn’t matter if they have stage-4 cancer, kidney failure, pretty much anything short of a wrought iron spike sticking out of their heads -- count it.

Couple that with financial incentives in government payment rates, called reimbursements, for treating COVID-19 patients and you begin to see how inflating the number of deaths was both encouraged and incentivized.

That’s the garbage in – junk numbers that don’t reflect reality. You get only garbage out when you put garbage in.

Science is the favorite buzzword of the left – Democrats are, they’ll happily tell you, the “party of science.” Thursday, for some random reason that perfectly encapsulates both how corrupted the media has become and how the left simply uses the word “science” in the absence of knowledge or facts, Anderson Cooper interviewed high school drop-out Greta Thunberg about coronavirus. In one 1:25 clip, together they used some variation of the word “science” 11 times without saying anything.

But science is needed, now more than ever. Unfortunately, true science needs more than buzz. It requires data; real, accurate data, from which to draw conclusions and prove anything. Corrupt data in means garbage out.

As we navigate this pandemic, public officials are making decisions based on that flawed data. Moreover, when future generations experience a pandemic (and they will), they will look back to now for guidance and they won’t find it. Worse, they’ll find inaccurate data and assume it’s good.

That we don’t have accurate, extensive data from the 1918 Spanish Flu isn’t surprising, the technology to collect it across the country didn’t exist then. It exists now, and we’re blowing it. Either for reasons of panic, incompetence, or corruption, we are not working off of or gathering truthful information that will help anyone, now or in the future, make informed decisions.

This reality hasn’t stopped anyone from making declarative statements as if they have truth on their side, nor has it stopped the media from spreading, unquestioningly, those half-truths and lies. Worse, it’s driving everything federal, state, and local governments are imposing on people.

Some Governors are bucking this trend, asking the right questions, and going in a different direction. So far, it’s working out in their favor. But the “garbage in, garbage out” model is still in full operation almost elsewhere else, and it’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

The fear is, even if those governors succeed, others are so wed to the garbage model that if they ever do come around it will be too late. The damage will be done. Without insisting on correct and accurate data, unlike Edison who learned from his failures, our political leaders won’t be able to apply anything from this pandemic to the future, we’ll only learn to fail further.

President Trump, I hope you’re listening, because you’re the only person who can insist on, and order, any changes to this.

[Ann Archy]

Over 8,000 people in the US, on average, die every day in past years. How many are dying today everyday?

How many USUALLY die from Flu, Heart Disease, Diabetes, Cancer, etc.???

I will BET theose numbers are QUITE LOWER from years past because they are counting practically EVERYTHING as COVID deaths!

[Ann Archy]

BTW....Fauci is a FRAUD and he has to gin up the numbers since he told Trump that up to 2 1/2 MILLION of us would be dead if he didn’t close down the country!

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Quotes from chairman (Norman) Augustine:

“Garbage in, gospel out.”

“Any simulation that cannot be explained on the back of an envelope is worse than useless; it’s dangerous.”

[NTHockey]

Politicians don’t learn from their mistakes because a) they will NEVER admit a mistake; b) they are not the brightest bulbs in the box and c) Power, power, power.

[kickstart]

It is based on apolitical agenda. Orange Man bad!

[nathanbedford]

Early research on candidate Obama revealed without question that he was a communist. Once that identity is established it is as meaningful to understanding the individual as defining someone as a Muslim or a Scientologist.

In the case of a communist it means that his epistemology is utterly different from mainstream America. Indeed, it is a worldview that is impervious to new philosophy because it is a closed cycle. By its nature it succeeds at what was intended: to prohibit entry of contrary worldview -a virus that repels antibodies.

Part of this impenetrable worldview is a whole new moral index. Right and wrong, good and bad, moral and immoral are inverted from our understanding and deployed in the service of an impenetrable philosophy. Witness, for example, the teachings of The Frankfurt School.

A clever man-and Barack Obama is certainly of above average intelligence that appears much more impressive than it actually is because he has a facility of speech and manner- adapts to his audience. That is, he lies. Witness the teachings of Obama's mentor Saul Alinsky who, like Karl Marx, openly recommends lying and concealing means and ends. Not incidentally, Alinsky recommends identifying and demonizing one's opponent, advice the author here insists Obama took effectively against him clandestinely if not overtly.

[Fishtalk]

I agree with your assertion that Fauci is a fraud.

My question is WHY DOESN’T PRESIDENT TRUMP FIRE THE GUY??

If not fire, why not sideline him?

Fauci has done more harm to this lockdown than most anybody associated with it as some sort of leader.

I can’t stand the guy.

[billyboy15]

At this point most everyone realizes the numbers coming out on China Virus are fiction and because of this any reports comparing one Nation to another, one State to another, the numbers comparing one country to another are useless and may as well be put together by throwing a dart at a bunch of numbers and using them.

[ronnie raygun]

Thomas Edison reportedly said, “I didn’t fail. I just stole ideas from nicola tesla
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcrwTN5OEZY

[Elsie]

assumed...

[yldstrk]

Pols refuse to learn because they are delusional.

[AFB-XYZ]

“I will BET theose numbers are QUITE LOWER from years past because they are counting practically EVERYTHING as COVID deaths!”

I think you’re absolutely right.

[AFB-XYZ]

“My question is WHY DOESN’T PRESIDENT TRUMP FIRE THE GUY??”

Excellent question. Something just doesn’t seem quite right about the whole thing. In all other areas, Pres. Trump is the roaring lion who fears absolutely nothing. For the last 3-1/2 years he’s stood firm against the Establishment politics-as-usual crown, and accomplished things that most of us would have never dreamed possible. But he cannot or will not get rid of Fauci?

[palmer]

Over 8,000 people in the US, on average, die every day in past years. How many are dying today everyday?

Your question is how many excess deaths are there. In bad flu years about 1000 excess deaths a day. With the "COVID" deaths there are claiming a peak somewhat above 2000 deaths a day, now dropping. The statistics for all deaths lag, because of slow reporting. Note that the "COVID" deaths are being reported separately, with no lag.

Here are the real reports: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm Note that there is lag. So for the last few weeks of data, all deaths including "COVID" deaths are underreported. But for earlier in April, the statistics are fairly complete. What is shown is up to 131% of expected deaths. That's excess deaths in the range of three times a bad flu year. But remember that's when deaths peaked and there were certainly a lot of somewhat premature deaths in places like NYC.

The true effect of the virus this year will be known early next year when we see the deaths for all of 2020. That will show how many deaths were just shifted a little earlier and how many were truly excess deaths.

[Elsie]

...how many were truly excess deaths.

Excess?

I think we still get just one per person.

We ALL gonna die from something!

Look how many are claimed to croak from second hand smoke - why aren't we in lockdown over THOSE numbers?

---

Secondhand smoke causes approximately 7,330 deaths from lung cancer and 33,950 deaths from heart disease each year. Between 1964 and 2014, 2.5 million people died from exposure to secondhand smoke, according to the 2014 report from the U.S. Surgeon General.

---

https://www.google.com/search?q=second+hand+smoke+kills&ie=&oe=

[Pollster1]

Democrats don’t want people to learn from their mistakes. The spread of socialism depends on people not learning how consistently and terribly it turns out.

[palmer]

The only question is how "premature" our death will be. We don't have to die before age 50 from a car crash even if the "statistics" say we have a 1% chance, same as coronavirus. The virus is a little less controllable by us as individuals, but still controllable. We can avoid coughing or yelling people.

But any death before age 100 or so is premature. As you say "ALL gonna die from something!" There is no magic government solution to prevent premature death. There are steps we can take as individuals to help our fellow humans. Don't shout at people, breathe through your nose, and most of all, don't go out when you are sick.

[myerson]

Do you know anyone who now has a common cold, bronchitis or influenza?

[TStro]

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Praise him and do everything he says not to do. I think DJT is smart enough to do this. Firing him would “look bad”. Now to move him to the background out of site. His 15 minutes are over.