It is always "too early to know" - until it is too late.
We are constantly faced with incomplete and inaccurate information, with which we must make critical and time-limited decisions.
Play the odds, place your bet, and put your money down. Waiting too long is a sure-fire loss.
Here is my call: "Aubery was a burglar who was casing a neighborhood for opportunities. He was confronted by angry neighbors and he ran. When blocked, he attacked one of the neighbors. who was armed with a shotgun. He died from weapons fire during the grappling. The death was a justified homicide.
Make of it what you will.
I’ve been very wary of wading into this but your assessment sounds about right to me.
That’s probably as good a summary as any at this point.