Posted on 05/22/2020 11:36:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The current “best estimate” put the mortality rate for COVID-19 at 0.4 percent for patients who show symptoms, a federal health agency said.
The estimated rate is based on the number of people showing symptoms who die “of the disease,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.
COVID-19 is a disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus that primarily causes severe illness in the elderly and people with underlying health conditions.
“This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported cases, because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die,” the CDC added.
Anyone who dies in the United States with COVID-19 is counted as a COVID-caused death, health officials said last month. The CDC later directed states to include “probable” deaths, sparking concern among some doctors.
Doesn’t Include Those Without Symptoms
While the estimated mortality rate is 0.4 percent, that number doesn’t include the estimated 35 percent of people who become infected and don’t show symptoms.
The figures were published in new guidance for modelers and public health officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC, using data received prior to April 29.
Actual mortality rates are hard to pin down because so many people become infected with the CCP virus and experience no, mild, or moderate symptoms.
A lack of testing in the early days of the pandemic left many wondering whether they had the virus at one time or another. Developed more recently, antibody tests can show whether one developed a defense against the virus, signaling that they were infected in the past.
Health officials in March estimated a true mortality rate of 1 percent or less.
(Excerpt) Read more at theepochtimes.com ...
Gee, as predicted by several of us Flubros on our daily thread many weeks ago.
Hmmm. And the rate for silly old every day flu? Bueller?
Notice that statement is qualified “For Covid-19 patients with symptoms” Since 80-90% don’t have symptoms, the death rate is REALLY more like 0.05%, or 1/2 of 1/10 of a percent
So are they saying 65% show symptoms if 36% don’t.
The number not showing symptoms is probably double 35%.
And what percent of infected people show symptoms?
That would be the current death rate, it’s come down because of better treatment protocols.
RE: Hmmm. And the rate for silly old every day flu? Bueller?
The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to news reports.
SEE HERE: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
So, based on current CDC estimates ( which might be revised later ), Covid-19 is 4 times deadlier than the flu.
The current “best estimate” put the mortality rate for COVID-19 at 0.4 percent for patients who show symptoms, a federal health agency said. “
What does that “who show symptoms” parameter do to the final number. Of course it means that the overall rate is going to be lower when/if everyone who gets it symptoms or not is counted. DLD
So, based on current CDC estimates ( which might be revised later ), Covid-19 is 4 times deadlier than the flu.
This part really throws a monkey wrench into your comment (notice the use of the word “suggests”) :
It’s important to note that there is no one death rate for COVID-19; the rate can vary by location, age of person infected and the presence of underlying health conditions, Live Science previously reported.
Among reported COVID-19 cases in the U.S., nearly 6% have died. This is what’s known as the case fatality rate, which is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But the case fatality rate is limited for a few reasons. First, not everyone with COVID-19 is being diagnosed with the disease — this is in part due to testing limitations in the U.S. and the fact that people who experience mild or moderate symptoms may not be eligible for or seek out testing. As the number of confirmed cases goes up, the fatality rate may decrease.
Their own figures of 95,276 deaths out of 1,985,656 confirmed cases shows a mortality rate of 6%.
Are you comparing apples to apples ?
The size of the asymptomatic-recovered population is the most critical variable in this whole problem - and we still have no idea, and it’s almost JUNE.
Disgraceful.
Given the SARS-CoV-2 R0, we can expect herd immunity somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-85%. We have around 330 million people in the US. The 35% number may be low as it tends to vary between different populations, so let’s make that a range of 30-40% showing no symptoms and thus, not dying. Assuming no working vaccine is developed, that leaves 264 - 281 million eventually infected. Of those, 158 - 197 million will show symptoms. At 0.4% death rate, that leaves 632,000 - 788,000 dead. This assumes a best case scenario where we develop lasting immunity once infected and the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate in such a way that it becomes worse or negates previous immunity.
So yeah, we’re going to want a vaccine for this thing ASAP. Every person who becomes infected becomes a factory for creating more SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Every virus produced is an opportunity for mutation that makes things vastly worse.
If that's accurate, only about 1% of the country has been infected.
Random tests in NYC, Los Angeles, and on cruise ships show 20% of the people got it.
20% of the US is 65 million.
100,000 deaths is .15% Still 50% worse death rate than the flu.
This needs to be adjusted for every age group for a clearer picture.
It’s 0.03%.
The divisor is MUCH higher than they want to let on.
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