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To: Calif Conservative

Someone effed up somewhere

42 million people went on unemployment and that does not include those who still have not been able to register for unemployment.

That’s 20%

And yeah, I’m looking at Bay Area. Downtown San Francisco looks like the rapture came and went.

Driving down streets that should be packed all day and there isn’t a single car or cable car? That’s not right.

traffic on the roads are so clear kids are driving in caravans of 3-5 cars racing each other at over 100mph.

No way they should be able to do that during rush hour or in the middle of day under normal traffic. It wouldn’t be possible.


22 posted on 06/05/2020 11:36:09 AM PDT by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
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To: Vendome

there are so many flaws in your argument, not sure where to start, but let’s begin with the 42 million

1. the 42 million: that’s the aggregate number of people who filed first-time unemployment claims starting with the business shutdowns in mid-March. It is a flaw to state that all 42 million remain unemployed. Why? It is a near certainty that some of them have resumed working. You presume incorrectly that all 42 million continue to be out of work.

2. therefore, your presumption that the unemployment rate must be 20 percent is flawed. Yes 42 million filed jobless claims. Not all of them remain out of work.

3. the 2.5 million gain in jobs is based on the payroll survey. the survey of payroll stubs turned in by employers. This survey is an economic apple.

4. the unemployment rate is based on the household survey, which measures who is employed or unemployed, or on part-time work, in a household. This survey is an economic orange.

5. Anecdotes are just that. Anecdotes. They tell us nothing except what was witnessed at a specific moment in time. They have little value in measuring what’s actually transpiring in a broad economy. Or even a micro-economy.

6. In the Bay Area, the tech sector is working at home. So their driving is non-existent or minimal.

7. San Jose, Fremont, the “West Bay” and San Francisco are all tech hubs.

8. The Bay Area has roughly 400,000 tech workers. They’re at home and their driving is minimal or non-existent.


23 posted on 06/05/2020 12:16:01 PM PDT by Calif Conservative (Ronald Reagan fan forever)
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