[Catholic and Conservative]

Out of curiosity, I looked for old poll data and found some for Gallup. For Gallup polls, Republicans over the last 60 years have had an average net gain of 4.8% relative to Democrats when you compare overall poll results at the end of June to election day.

Year	D June	D Election	% Change		R June	R Election	% Change
1960	50	49.7	-0.3		46	49.6	+3.6
1964	76	61.1	-14.9		20	38.5	+18.5
1968	42	42.7	+0.7		37	43.4	+6.4
1972	37	37.5	+0.5		53	60.7	+7.7
1976	53	50.1	-2.9		36	48	+12.0
1980	34	41	+7.0		37	50.7	+13.7
1984	41	40.6	-0.4		53	58.8	+5.8
1988	46	45.6	-0.4		41	53.4	+12.4
1992	27	43	+16.0		33	37.4	+4.4
1996	49	49.2	+0.2		33	40.7	+7.7
2000	38	48.4	+10.4		50	47.9	-2.1
2004	47	48.3	+1.3		48	50.7	+2.7
2008	45	52.9	+7.9		45	45.7	+0.7
2012	48	51.1	+3.1		43	47.2	+4.2
2016	42	48	+6.0		37	46.2	+9.2
Average	45	47.3	+2.3		40.8	47.9	+7.1

Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#1988_United_States_presidential_election

[nwrep]

Great chart, insightful analysis. Thank you.

[Steve Van Doorn]

Very nice. Bookmarking this