Indian military amasses more men, material at border with China

[Xi today in China governs a huge population that copes with the threat of famine, environmental ruin, desperately needs a political reality that enhances its export markets and favors a steady supply of grains, protein sources and energy. ]

Chinese incomes have gone up 40x in 40 years. China’s not in need of a shot in the arm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Despite less than 10% market share, GM alone sells about as many cars in China as all car manufacturers combined sell in India.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-china/gms-third-quarter-china-vehicle-sales-down-17-5-as-u-s-automakers-cede-ground-idUSKBN1WP0L0
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/car-sales-dip-most-in-2-decades-in-2019/articleshow/73063244.cms

This is from a base in the late 70’s when China and India had the same rough per capita incomes.

Re imports, Xi Jinping can acquire China’s needs on the open market like everybody else. I don’t think it’s escaped anyone’s attention that China runs a net trade surplus against the rest of the world, so there’s no shortage of foreign exchange to purchase imports. You really think the US is going to invade and occupy China’s suppliers to prevent them from selling to China or seize China-bound ships to inspect for products other countries are selling to China?

People come up absurd rationales based on what leaders say. IMO, the one constant element in the world is that when what leaders want requires considerable sacrifices from all below them, they will dissimulate endlessly.

Re Alexander, the richest of his conquests was Persia. He spent his entire life in the field, living a spartan existence like the rest of his men. Someone who was after luxury would have spent it resting on his laurels instead of engaging in campaign after campaign. He only gave up when his soldiers were on the brink of mutiny. In fact, he probably pushed them past that point - there’s a long series of rumors that he was poisoned. What is not in dispute is that after his death, his family line was exterminated.

Xi Jinping doesn’t have a problem with popular disaffection. The shibboleth of our time is that the Chinese people are naturally docile, so *any* public expression of dissatisfaction is an indication of impending regime collapse. However, the historical record, dating back to China’s Spartacus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Gaozu_of_Han, indicate that the average Chinese is fairly contentious and not shy about asserting his rights to the extent tolerated by the authorities. And the rampant lawbreaking and corruption is not an indication of drone-like behavior but of not directly challenging the emperor until they perceive an opportunity to eliminate him (and his kin) and personally occupy his seat.

You are very much mistaken if you believe that China is economically stable. It is true there was the expected economic growth and wealth creation when in the late 1980s China abandoned doctrinaire socialism and allowed some economic freedoms to its underproductive, inefficient masses with the communists still controlling central banking and capital allocation ( to their detriment).However the nation’s economic well being depends on the export of consumer products ( mostly designed by foreigners) that cater to foreign markets and tastes. The trade surpluses are absolutely necessary to support the military, the non productive huge bureaucracy and guarantee the import of essential grains, materials and energy. Its, at this point, a very precarious balance. Economic and overt military imperialism is necessary for China to prosper and even survive.

[Economic and overt military imperialism is necessary for China to prosper and even survive.]

That actually runs against the grain of Chinese history, as well as the history of many empires. The First Emperor’s dynasty collapsed immediately after his death.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Gao#Coup_following_Qin_Shi_Huang’s_death

The Sui dynasty collapsed when its ruler went after the proto-Korean empire of its time. That ruler was killed by a courtier:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Yang_of_Sui

Something similar happened with the China’s last de jure dynasty:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten_Great_Campaigns#Campaigns_in_perspective

Huge amounts of money were spent, leading to eventual dynastic collapse.

The basic point being - whatever China’s problems or lack thereof, military campaigns abroad add to those problems rather than solve them. China’s rulers are not so much far-sighted as they look back upon the past to divine the correct approaches to the problems of the day. If Xi Jinping is having serious problems at home, he’s not going to venture abroad. These rulers have tended to indulge in foreign adventures only in times of domestic peace - much like every other ruler out there. Because all rulers need to watch their backs - while you’re focused on managing a foreign war, your rivals are circling and waiting to stab you in the back.

No disagreement that imperialistic military campaigns in the short term and almost always in the long term turn out to be disasters for the leaders and nations that launch them. Yet would like to make a few points.

All these imperialists from Alexander to Hitler lived in a myopic bubble. Their local conditions, analysis among their advisers and even the sentiment of their people all contributed to their decision to wage imperialistic war. IMHO China is in that myopic bubble. It has made a huge investment in a modern, extremely well equipped military. That military is a powerful entity. Yet if it is not used, it deteriorates. Generals get restless. Also within the Chinese Communist party, nothing unites them and motivates them as the expulsion of foreign interference and the reunification of their country. That means a goal of the Chinese communists is to aassert China’s dominance in the mode of the Middle Kingdom. Taiwan must be reunited with the mainland(by force if necessary). The United States must no longer assert itself in Asian political affairs. The US must cooperate with China by allowing its markets to be open and its technology available. The rest of Asia must show deference to China and cooperate economically. China’s interests in Africa must not be opposed.

Certainly hope that China will not make the critical error of trying to take Taiwan by force. Hopefully Xi is as smart and wise as you say. However IMHO he is surrounded by a military itching for a fight and a Party that sees the present as the opportune time to reunite China.

Therefore as originally postulated it appears China wishes to provoke India into a shooting war. It hopes to bloody and humiliate India. As Russia intimidated Japan in 1939, China wishes to intimidate India and impress on India that when China is engaged invading Taiwan and even possibly clashing with the American Navy and Air Force, India had better remain docile. If Biden wins, suspect an invasion of Taiwan will happen after a furious political and psychological campaign to induce the government and people on Taiwan not to resist and accept reunification.

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