Posted on 07/10/2020 2:18:32 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
“As mentioned often, the number of Fatalities is what
it’s all about right now.”
Seems as if the % of fatalities to confirmebd cases would be more informative.
Almost 50% of the fatalities are being generated by 4 states (California, Texas, Florida and Arizona) 3 of which are border states.
Not sure what that is telling us but odd that no one seems to have an opinion of that interesting fact.
“””Almost 50% of the fatalities are being generated by 4 states (California, Texas, Florida and Arizona) 3 of which are border states.”””
All four of the states are major migrant labor states.
In Florida there has been major testing of migrant labor camps and the results have been high positivity rates. Not so much death rates among the migrant laborers as they are younger.
So as the migrant laborers move north, they may not spread covid as they have already been infected.
FLORIDA NURSING HOME COVID POSITIVE
Florida also reports the number of covid positive residents and staff in Long Term Care Facilities.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/ltcf_latest.pdf
DAY STAFF RESIDENTS
23-Jun 2529 1408
2-Jul 3279 2084
3-Jul 3453 2205
4-Jul 3554 2348
5-Jul 3759 2398
6-Jul 3988 2511
7-Jul 4160 2395
8-Jul 4342 2489
9-Jul 4594 2641
10-Jul 4922 2817
Florida has set aside something like 12 nursing homes which only have covid positive residents or staff.
Florida also regularly tests the residents and staff at all nursing homes for covid.
Not sure if there is a trend here or not. But I will continue to follow on a daily basis. What could be concerning is that the number of staff and residents who have tested positive has doubled since June 23.
What are other states reporting????
I have been tracking the numbers posted by CDC and comparing their numbers to the number posted by Worldometer on May 30th.
Yesterday, the CDC did a major data dump and added 3,504 deaths to their previously reported numbers for March, April, and May.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
The provisional counts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated.
“Seems as if the % of fatalities to confirmebd cases would be more informative.”
That really is the only number that matters.
You mean, like the number I have reported many times (and people like you insist that I don't know what I'm talking about)?
Today: US confirmed cases - 3118168.
Confirmed deaths - 133291.
133,291 / 3,118,168 x 100 = 4.275% death rate.
The death rate has been on a downward trend, but I think that might reverse as cases and the death count keep increasing. Deaths from Covid-19 occur from 2 to 6 weeks after infection, with a median of 16 days. There were 63,024 new cases today, the highest ever. Nearly 1% of the US population has now had or has Covid-19.
My numbers differ from Doughty One's numbers because we are collecting data at different timepoints, and our sources update their numbers throughout the day.
I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.
Jul 2 = 341
Jul 3 = 244
Jul 4 = 160
Jul 5 = 150
Jul 6 = 380
Jul 7 = 333
Jul 8 = 409
Jul 9 = 435
We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over two weeks.
We are seeing an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients. Not good.
I will continue tracking the COVID hospitalization numbers as it changes.
If other states are reporting covid hospitalizations, it would be good to post the data from those states.
Here is the link to the source document:
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf
“Today: US confirmed cases - 3118168.
Confirmed deaths - 133291.
133,291 / 3,118,168 x 100 = 4.275% death rate.”
Man, that is an absolutely imbecilic posting. You are using 2 completely unrelated numbers and drawing a mindless conclusion from them.
I was speaking of people who died FROM China Chop Suey Virus not people who died WITH the Virus. I should heve been more clear.
The media hype is intesifying but it is still hype and purely political.
You obviously are not at all familiar with how meaningful statistics are derived therefor your assertions and conclusions drawn from those are completely erroneous.
Sorry, that post was meant for “Mom”.
That’s the case fatality rate and it’s only meaningful if you have a widespread regular testing program underway. Which we still do not.
The infection fatality rate is what matters. It’s estimated between 0.26% (CDC lower bound) and 1% (upper bound Johns Hopkins likely IFR). The CFR will continue trending down until it more closely matches the actual IFR. Worth noting that 0.26% - 1% is still a LOT of fatalities.
“You obviously are not at all familiar with how meaningful statistics are derived therefor your assertions and conclusions drawn from those are completely erroneous.”
No shit?
I can understand the thought behind that, but seriously, if
say we were headed to 1 million deaths per year, do you
honestly think some ratio would offset the concern over
that?
DFI (daily fatality index) is rising. When the projection below was calculated on 16 June, the running 5 day average was 0.526 with an estimated ending DFI of 0.25. Current 5 day average is now 0.6.
•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.
DFI vs CFI
“if say we were headed to 1 million deaths per year, do you
honestly think some ratio would offset the concern over that”
No, but what I see as a problem is the failure (deliberate) to distinguish between deaths caused by the virus and deaths of people with the virus.
We know there is a financial benefit in reporting deaths as being virus caused and we know of the political angle as well.
This more about psyops then anything else.
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