COVID-19 Update - 07/10/2020

The “total number of cases” CANNOT be determined by the number of positive test results that have been reported to date as that number is in reality a fraction of the number that have been infected. You are comparing apples to oranges and producing a “case/fatality rate” that has no validity and signifies absolutely nothing.

The case fatality rate (CFR) is a tool that has been used by epidemiologists for decades, and it remains not only valid but is the best tool we have for analyzing the effects of a disease.

You are confusing a CFR with an infection fatality rate (IFR), in which a reasoned estimate of asymptomatic cases are added to the confirmed cases and the fatality rate is calculated from that number. The problem is that without a lot of study, you cannot estimate an asymptomatic case rate. In any case, the IFR is not a number that epidemiologists routinely use. It is highly speculative, and using it in epidemiology is like using statistical sampling to estimate the population of the US instead of counting everyone. (In case you are not aware, there are many agenda advocacy groups who want to ditch the census in favor of statistical sampling for political purpose; no doubt, their next goal is statistical sampling instead of elections to select politicians.)

I know that there is a widely believed narrative out there that there are tons of people who have had Covid-19 without having any symptoms. There is, however, no evidence to back up this narrative. A recent study on the duration of antibodies after Covid-19 infection makes this narrative even more doubtful (ref below). Antibodies from most Covid-19 infections disappear within 90 days, within 60 days for mild infections. In other words, there are not gadzillions of people who have already had Covid-19 asymptomatically and there is no resulting herd immunity.

Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection
Seow J, Graham C, Merrick B, et al.
medRxiv 2020.07.09.20148429; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429

Sorry, but the science does show that you have to take Covid-19 seriously.

Don’t trust the numbers, any of them. We just learned of massive irregularities in reporting in Florida where in certain counties reports showed 100% of those tested had China Virus.

I read that news item. The headline was misleading, but the article body gave the actual details. The situation was that some labs were only reporting positive results, but not the number of tests conducted. This does not change the number of confirmed cases at all. It only changes the assessment of how effectively testing is catching all of the cases. As far as I can tell, it is not necessary to report negative test data to the national disease surveillance systems, so those labs reporting only the positive results were probably following their routine protocols.

It’s 100% political and it’s all about “getting Trump.”

Yes, that is absolutely correct. The best way to hurt Trump is to show that he is ineffectively managing the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. And people like you who are spreading false narratives are doing an awesome job of showing just how badly Trump is handling this. You should really ask for a raise from your Democrat and/or Chinese handlers, because the more cases there are, the more support Trump loses. Not only are you hurting Trump, you are also helping to cement the narrative that Trump supporters are just plain stupid. Way to go!

No bigger troll than you. Go back to the DU site where you belong.

Does the Biden campaign pay you, or are you just a volunteer? Or are you working on behalf of Chinese masters who really do not want to see Trump reelected?

The best way to ensure Trump's defeat: make sure Covid-19 is spreading uncontrollably by election time. The best way to make sure Covid-19 spreads uncontrollably: convince enough people to believe in false narratives that they refuse to take any measures to protect themselves and stop virus spread. You're doing an outstanding job of spreading misinformation--Trump's poll numbers are slipping!

[Sometimes I forget to notate that “x 100” is to make the answer a percent. This is basic elementary school math. I did include the percent sign when I posted the calculation.]

The comment to which you responded is precisely why I own shares in H&R Block. The level of innumeracy in a population that is largely literate is staggering. This is why so many need professional tax prep to fill out a 1040EZ.

The level of innumeracy in a population that is largely literate is staggering.

It truly is.

I do not understand why, either. Our brains make complex calculations all of the time, and people intuitively understand numerical relationships--for example, if someone throws a ball at you, you have a decent chance of catching it despite the rather complex mathematics involved both in the flight of the ball and your actions to catch it. But, somehow, when it comes to descriptive symbols to represent what we intuitively understand, many people suddenly become completely incapable of understanding.

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