Posted on 07/13/2020 3:25:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
When there is something that I really want to be true and things are leading me to believe that it is true, the lawyer and soldier in me both compel me to look for why I might be wrong. After all, confirmation bias exists – you want to believe that what you want is what actually is. Just look at Twitter. It’s a veritable orgy of liberal confirmation bias, though a gross, icky orgy like you might have seen at an after-party on a Bulwark cruise.
I really want President Donald Trump to be reelected. There are a lot of reasons, including my liking the Constitution, enjoying economic prosperity, and not wanting to be ruled by the sinister leftist Geppettos who are holding the strings that make their gropey, weird old Pinocchio dance. And I think Trump will win.
This is what makes me redouble my efforts to see if I am deluding myself, to see if I am skipping over unhelpful realities and emphasizing non-indicating indicators in order to wring out the result I want – another flood of tears issuing from the eyes of hordes of Democrat saps seeing their dream of a Nuevo Venezuela here in America pushed back a minimum of four more years.
I can’t convince myself I am wrong. I’ve tried. And I keep coming back to the same place. If I were a betting man, I’d put my money down on The Donald again.
Let’s review the evidence for a Grandpa Badfinger victory, because it does exist and we damn well best take it seriously if we don’t want to become serfs toiling away for the intersectional nimrods who make up the pierced and tatted-up thorax of the socialist insect that yearns to feed on the life of the People.
First, a basic fact: Either candidate of either party can always possibly win in any American election. Trump’s upset reaffirmed that truism good n’ hard. We have a two-party system – sorry members of the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Brony Validation Party, but none of you matter and also, you’re all strange-os. A two-party system means each party is generally incentivized to maximize its appeal to obtain 50 percent + 1 vote. Almost all our elections are rather close, at least in the popular vote. The Electoral College – the only kind of college Democrats do not want to give your money to – skews the numbers, but generally, America is a nearly 50/50 split by design. Either nominee can win, so the question is who is always more likely to win.
Biden’s got a lot of money and the entire mainstream media flacking for him. Trump seems to have some organization problems in key states getting his ground game squared away, and those damn texts are ticking off the base (My sources in the know tell me the president is aware of this and is personally kicking tail to fix it – he better be if he wants to win). Of course, in Democrat areas, they are ramping up their ability to commit election fraud. But the factor that gets the attention is the polls.
According to the polls, Hoover Biden’s Daddy is walking away with this election. He’s beating Trump by five points, ten points, fifteen points, all of the points! That’s dispiriting, and I kind of think it’s meant to be. Am I saying that I think the mainstream media is intentionally skewing poll numbers so it can report that Trump is getting crushed and thereby demoralize us? Yeah.
This once would have been crazy talk, but if you look at all the lies both Trump and we have been subjected to since he dared defy the garbage establishment. This is the subject of my new book, The 21 Biggest Lies About Donald Trump (and You!), which you need to order immediately. You have to wonder where the speed bump is that will slow down the media’s drag race toward becoming total proggy propaganda. After a coordinated bogus Mt. Rushmore narrative – Dark! Divisive! Confederaaaaaaates! – that we could easily fact check simply by clicking a mouse and listening to what the president actually said for ourselves, why should we trust their reporting of something as opaque and easy to manipulate as a poll?
I don’t answer polls. I have a job – heck, jobs. So do you. And with everyone from PG&E linemen making the “OK” sign to Latin vegetable tycoons being canceled, is it so crazy to think some people might not reply to a total stranger, “Why yes, I do intend to vote for the guy a bunch of very prominent people insist is literally Hitler”? That’s Lie #5 in my new book, by the way.
And maybe I’m denying science again (That’s Lie #13), but if polls were so reliable the UK would be run by Jeremy Corbyn and we’d be playing “Hail to the Chief” to Felonia Milhous von Pantsuit, at least until some aggrieved sophomore with a degree in Collectivist Pottery from Goucher College declared the ditty “racist” and the Democrat administration scrambled to replace it with a mash-up of songs by The Chicks and Lady A. Not the black soul singer Lady A, but the singers of pallor currently squatting on the name because the word “Antebellum” sets stupid people to literally shaking.
Now, why am I optimistic?
Well, several reasons. Some are based on generalities, and some are kind of anecdotal.
Incumbents usually win. They just do. The economy, despite the Dems’ best efforts to turn the pangolin pandemic panic into The Great Depression 2: Back on the Bread Line, seems to be getting better. Biden is promising to raise taxes and cancel hundreds of thousands of fracking jobs in key states like Pennsylvania in order to please his urban climate cultist base. There’s also the fact that he has not gotten us into any new wars, much to the chagrin of the establishment. And he is getting us out of the pre-existing wars the establishment has spent decades losing. Finally, the whole chaos thing works better for him in terms of the kind of people who remember to vote. Defunding the police plays a lot better in a faculty lounge than a suburban cul-de-sac.
Oh, and there’s the fact that the basement-dwelling crustacean the Democrats are all set to nominate is manifestly senile. Notice how Trump is kind of holding fire on that little revelation until Biden accepts the nom and they can’t switch him out?
All those factors are in Trump’s favor.
Now, here’s the squishy thing I see that makes me optimistic in spite of myself. I know a significant number of folks who did not support Trump in 2016 but who are doing so now, especially since there is no Democrat alternative that doesn’t involve turning the White House into a commie freak show. But I know zero people who have told me, “Yeah, I voted for Trump in 2016, but his mean tweeting makes me want to flush America down the Ted Lieu.” In fact, I ran a Twitter poll and got over 3,100 responses in an hour with 92 percent sharing my experience.
And, as my pal Owen Brennan of ace political shop Madison-McQueen (Full Disclosure: I’ve done legal work for them) told me when I guest hosted for Hugh Hewitt recently, while the polls about personal preference support Biden, the polls of who people think will win supports Trump in a big way. That’s a screening test for the “Shy Trumpers.” And there is the wisdom of crowds factor – Republicans are largely convinced Trump will win in a walk.
Is it scientific? Nope. Is it objective? Nope. But is it correct? Will Trump win? I think so, and I can’t help it. Regardless, we need to play like we’re behind, redouble our efforts, and bring in this win. This is serious stuff. This is our country, and should Biden win, the people controlling that moldy muppet will hate our guts and want us disenfranchised, silenced, and enslaved, if not imprisoned or worse.
Let’s win this thing. It’s ours to lose.
I don’t believe Biden can win it, but they will do everything possible to steal it...
The media is actively trying to suppress turnout for Trump.
The marxists have already made it crime to support Trump...you could lose your job if you do not support the marxist party platform.
Trump is also holding the strongest GOP support of any POTUS. So, the media runs story after story of Republicans who will support Biden
Of course they will, because they can not win without fraud and that are not news.
The only thing that has changed since he won the last time is we now know he is effective and conservative. That and he is very good at getting the left to reveal their hidden agendas. The hate he releases from the left also makes them more inclined to cheat even more so that is the real Factor to his reelection.
Yup. But then Trump has been getting record turn outs for an incumbent in the primaries. Trump has gotten up to four times as many votes as Obama did in the 2012 primaries, even in blue states.
The Dems are in for a nasty surprise come November. Trump himself doesn't look the least bit bothered about Biden when I have seen him on TV
Our only salvation is that the Trump people are both aware and active in fighting voter fraud in all of it's forms.
By far, the worst kind of voter fraud, is the mail, BUT, in states like PA, the ballot box gets stuffed on a regular basis.
There are recorded voter precincts that vote over 100% of registered voters.
Explain that one.
I've seen it first hand and I will say that poll watchers have cut the number of fraudulent voters way back.
If you have good health, and live in a carry state, I'd recommend that FReepers sign up for poll watching.
In PA, you will get certified by a pubbie lawyer {you need the document to get into the polls and sit behind the poll judge}.
I stay until after the polls are closed AND THE ABSENTEE BALLOTS are opened, counted and recorded, and all ballots are signed for and picked up by the sheriff's officers.
Then I leave {with all three of my guns}.
I never go to a school to poll watch, because you break the law if you carry in a school, and I won't go into the badlands unarmed.
There is going to be plenty of Federal election monitors come November.
I have served as poll watchers and can verify that it is very productive. I prevented a pro dog track vote in Jackson County Alabama just by being there and acting like I knew everything. Just act like you observe everything and it drives the crooks crazy!!
In a straight up election, Trump wins.
But they stole so many seats in California with magically harvested votes and nary a protesting peep that they are salivating to try it nationwide.
It does not bode well to me.
This guy is selling a book. I hope he is right but he IS selling a book.
DO NOT GET COMPLACENT
The negative response is the stronger response- and democrats REALLY REALLY REALLY hate Trump
I’m not so much worried about Trump losing as I am of having to endure at least 2 more years of dim-0s controlling the house and God help us if they were to take over the senate too!
I have not found any such claims to be true.
I did not observe any fraud or cheating.
But, somehow, when we had poll watchers at the polls, our percentage of the vote at those polling places magically increased!
Just remember to exercise the more leeway we'll have after the election.
Explain that one.
I have not found any such claims to be true.
It might be "sort of, kinda" true in areas with low voter registration, and same day registration and voting.
But not actually true, because the voters registered on the same day they voted, thus increasing the registration numbers on election day.
It’s legal in California to ballot harvest which is why nobody protests. The republicans hopefully are going to do it in November. The other 49 states it’s illegal.
Here’s why I feel positive about Trump winning re-election: I haven’t heard from one person yet who voted for Trump in 2016 who isn’t voting for him again. I’m sure there will be some, but every person I know who voted for him is happy with the results. The Dims aren’t voting for Scratch and Sniff Joe because they like him; they’re only voting to try and stop the President. That’s not a winning hand. McCain and Romney anyone?
Good advice.
Poll watching is an essential weapon against voter fraud except that it can’t fight mail in voting fraud.
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