A Senate Takeover Is Very Much A Possibility For Democrats. Just Follow The Money

NPR ^ | 7/13/2020 | Domenico Montanaro

[Drango]

To take control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats need to net three seats in November if former Vice President Joe Biden wins, and four if President Trump is reelected.

That once looked like a near impossibility, but it's becoming a real possibility.

Republicans hold a 53-to-47 majority in the Senate, with the Democrats' side including two independents who caucus with them.

Five Republican incumbents are looking increasingly vulnerable, with their races labeled as "toss ups" by the Cook Political Report. Meanwhile one Democrat, Doug Jones of Alabama, is seen as being in real jeopardy.

Those five Republicans are Arizona's Martha McSally, Colorado's Cory Gardner, Maine's Susan Collins, Montana's Steve Daines and North Carolina's Thom Tillis.

Fundraising reports from the Federal Election Commission provide glimpses of Democratic strength. In Arizona, for instance, challenger Mark Kelly has so far outraised the Republican incumbent McSally by some $12 million.

ANALYSIS 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Biden Has An Edge Over Trump, With 5 Months To Go In all, there are 11 states that Cook labels as toss ups or that "lean" toward one party or another. Republicans hold fundraising advantages in six of those states, but in several of those races, the Democrat's latest FEC report is a bit outdated, likely underselling the candidate's money raised. For example, challenger Cal Cunningham, in North Carolina, announced last week that he raised about $7 million in the second quarter.

So keep that in mind as you look at the how the money race stands in each of those 11 contests:

Democratic Targets: Arizona (McSally incumbent, toss up)

- Kelly, D: $31.3 million raised, $19.7 million cash on hand

- McSally, R : $19 million raised, $10.3 million cash on hand

Colorado (Gardner incumbent, toss up)

- Gardner, R: $15.7 million raised, $9.3 million cash on hand

- John Hickenlooper, D: $12.6 million raised, $5.9 million cash on hand

Maine (Collins incumbent, toss up)

- Sara Gideon, D: $23 million raised, $5.5 million cash on hand

- Collins, R: $16.3 million raised, $5 million cash on hand

Note: Gideon is the favorite to win Maine's Democratic primary on Tuesday.

Montana (Daines incumbent, toss up)

- Daines, R: $9.4 million raised, $5.8 million cash on hand

- Steve Bullock, D: $5.9 million raised, $4.1 million cash on hand

Note: Bullock's fundraising report only goes through May 13, while Daines' goes through June 17.

North Carolina (Tillis incumbent, toss up)

- Tillis, R: $11.7 million raised, $6.5 million cash on hand

- Cunningham, D: $7.7 million raised, $3 million cash on hand

Note: Cunningham's fundraising report only goes through March 31, while Tillis' goes through June 9.

Georgia (Perdue incumbent, lean R)

- David Perdue, R: $13.2 million raised, $9.4 million cash on hand

- Jon Ossoff, D: $4.1 million raised, $1 million cash on hand

Note: Ossoff's fundraising report only goes through May 20, while Perdue's goes through June 20.

Georgia (Loeffler incumbent, lean R)

- Kelly Loeffler, R: $11.7 million raised, $6.1 million cash on hand

- Doug Collins, R: $2.5 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand

- Raphael Warnock, D: $1.5 million raised, $1.2 million cash on hand

Note: The election in November is a special election and would go to a runoff if no one gets more than 50%. These three candidates led a recent poll of the race.

Iowa (Ernst incumbent, lean R)

- Joni Ernst, R: $12.3 million raised, $7 million cash on hand

- Theresa Greenfield, D: $7.1 million raised, $4.7 million cash on hand

Note: Greenfield's fundraising report only goes through May 13, while Ernst's goes through June 30.

Kansas (Open seat with Sen. Pat Roberts retiring, lean R)

- Barbara Bollier, D: $3.5 million raised, $2.4 million cash on hand

- Bob Hamilton, R: $2.2 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand

- Roger Marshall, R: $2.1 million raised, $1.9 million cash on hand

- Kris Kobach, R: $595,000 raised, $317,000 cash on hand

Note: The state primaries are Aug. 4.

Republican Targets: Alabama (Jones incumbent, lean R)

- Doug Jones, D: $11.8 million raised, $8.3 million cash on hand

- Tommy Tuberville, R: $4 million raised, $448,000 cash on hand

- Jeff Sessions, R: $2.2 million raised, $500,000 cash on hand

Note: The Republican runoff election is Tuesday. Jones' fundraising report only goes through March 31.

Michigan (Peters incumbent, lean D)

- Gary Peters, D: $15.8 million raised, $8.8 million cash on hand

- John James, R: $13.1 million raised, $8.6 million cash on hand

[Alas Babylon!]

Ole Doug can spend all the Leftist’s money he can get in Alabama.

Ain’t gonna get him reelected in a TRUMP Election in Alabama.

No way, no how.

But, let him waste it all and more.

[qaz123]

I get what you’re saying, but if someone needs a 30sec tv ad to convince them to vote one way or another, then that person needs to take some on-line civics classes or a weekend tutorial on how to look stuff up on the internet, IMHO.

I’m not saying that everything a Republican candidate, any R candidate, is the gospel truth, but one can pretty much be assured that if it’s a Democrat ad, it’s a lie. The Dem’s know no other way.

[1Old Pro]

If we see a mass of Republican incumbents losing it would be the first time in history for the Senate.

[Alas Babylon!]

WTF?

That’s true every election.

That’s why talking about it on FR is not enough.

Yall gotta do something to help.

Each one of us.

Every.

Damn.

Election.

[apillar]

Well Hillary outraised Trump by nearly 3-1 in 2016 and we know how that one turned out...

[qaz123]

If we lose any of the three, it’s over, short of armed intervention or secession. If the Dem’s get control over two of the 3, then look for a minimum of 10-15 million Dem voters through citizenship being granted. Of course, they’ll be enthusiastically assisted by the likes of the ones you mentioned. And then the entire 3rd world shows up and it is over.

What I find interesting is, even the amnesty whores, like the ones you mentioned, and others, live in this fantasy land where they think they’ll be able to maintain their lifestyle and positions once the 3rd world shows up. Does anyone think, for a moment, that if they could, The Squad would take everything from anyone they wanted? They would make what happens in Central/South America and Africa, with their weekly coups, look like child’s play.

[Ben Dover]

“To take control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats need to net three seats in November if former Vice President Joe Biden wins, and four if President Trump is reelected.”

I can see Romney switching parties, so it’s three seats if President Trump is reelected.

[deport]

I would not assume the AL Senate seat is a sure R win.

************

That’s true. But this time they don’t have Roy Moore as the GOP candidate.

[Redmen4ever]

Democrats may have the problem of a crowded field. With so many opportunities, plus the Presidential, their money will be spread thin.

Plus, are they really going to contest Texas and other reliably Republican states?

Plus, Daines and other Republicans in Red States can count on Donald Trump “nationalizing” their state election.

Having said these things, I think it’s all or nothing. We win President, Senate and House, and save the country. Or else not.

[Fury]

Gardner deserves to lose. He’s a filthy traitor.

So you want him to lose and have the seat replaced by a Democrat?

[Alas Babylon!]

The other YUGE thing is this is not some off/by election. It is the real, no kidding election that President Trump, much beloved in Alabama, is up for.

There’s no way, millions of Alabamians will sit this one out like they did in 2017.

They will not vote Trump and then Jones!

[Lurkinanloomin]

NPR is a loony left organization. All taxpayer dollars to it must be stopped.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

When McConnell and Ryan had both houses they could have but didn’t.

[Lurkinanloomin]

The third world is already here.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

HELLARY had all the money in the world SHE LOST!!

[Colo9250]

Completely agree, hopefully we can keep the WH and with luck win back the House then we still have a chance to survive.

[bkopto]

McConnell wants to lose the Senate, just like how Ryan wanted to lose the House in 2018.

He prefers being out of the spotlight so he can enjoy his Chamber of Commerce graft and the Cheap Labor Express without the controversy of the Majority leader.

[bkopto]

So you want him to lose and have the seat replaced by a Democrat?

Well, in my WA state House district, I'm now refusing to vote for my backbencher RINO representative in November.

I'd rather be stabbed by a frontal assault that being stabbed in the back multiple times by the RINO liar.

[Drango]

NPR survives with GOP enablers. Richard Shelby (R-AL) & Roy Blunt (R-MO) for example.

https://apts.org/news/press-releases/apts-applauds-senate-approval-of-increased-funding-corporation-public-broadcasting

[Kazan]

If those Republican Senators had embraced the agenda of the President and Republican voters, they wouldn’t be in trouble.

If Democrats gain full control of the country, elections aren't going to matter in the future.

And, if Trump wins and can't judges approved, how much difference will it make?

[Lurkinanloomin]

Maybe some of those Bush League Republicans should have considered that before they supported open borders/amnesty.

(they did and are on board with it)