Posted on 07/14/2020 7:07:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Despite the spate of recent polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, a new shock poll reveals Americans aren’t quite as eager to hand over their freedom as some have said.
According to RealClearPolitics’ latest aggregate of polls, Biden leads Trump by 8 points, 49.6 percent to 40.8. But a poll conducted for the Sunday Express by the Democracy Institute, a Washington-based think tank, reveals Americans aren’t buying the narrative the U.S. media are trying to advance.
Contrary to what the media would have us believe, 77 percent of the 1,500 likely voters surveyed do not view Mount Rushmore as a racist monument. When asked which of two phrases better fit their own thinking about race in America, 29 percent of participants indicated “Black Lives Matter,” and 71 percent marked “All Lives Matter.”
Most notably, rather than showing Biden with a sharp advantage, the survey forecasts a much tighter race, with each candidate receiving 47 percent of the national popular vote. Moreover, the Democracy Institute predicts that if the election were held today, Trump would win 309 electoral votes and Biden 229.
State-by-state data isn’t conclusive, considering the limited sample size, but the data indicates Trump is ahead in the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a margin of 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The poll puts Wisconsin in the Biden column, while giving Trump Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Trump is considered less likable than Biden. When asked which candidate respondents would be more inclined to invite for a barbecue, 33 percent chose Trump, while 51 percent chose Biden. Sixteen percent said neither. When asked if they believe Biden is in the early stages of dementia, however, 55 percent answered yes, and 40 percent no.
As virtually all recent polls have found, the Democracy Institute identified the massive enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. Seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are very enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to only 43 percent of Biden supporters. That explains why 81 percent of Trump voters say their choice was “a positive vote for [their] candidate” rather than a “negative vote against his opponent.” For Biden, only 29 percent said it was a positive vote, while a whopping 71 percent said it was negative.
Notably, participants were asked if they were “comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote.” Only 29 percent of Trump voters said yes, versus 82 percent of Biden voters. This “shy” vote phenomenon was one of the reasons polls were so wrong in 2016. Many pro-Trumpers, wanting to avoid stigma, simply won’t tell a colleague or even a pollster whom they plan to vote for.
Fifty-two percent of those surveyed believe Trump will be reelected. While 4 percent of Trump supporters indicated their vote could change by Election Day, 12 percent of Biden backers said they could change their minds.
Other signs bode well for Trump. Although he had no serious competition for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination, his supporters have still turned out in large numbers throughout Republican primaries.
Just the News pointed out that in Pennsylvania, for example, 934,524 voted for Trump while only 914,904 voted for Biden. In Ohio, the candidates received 682,843 and 623,186 votes, respectively. In Florida, 86,000 more voted for Trump than for Biden. This pattern began early in the primary season, with Trump significantly outperforming past incumbent presidents in their equivalent primaries.
Moreover, not all of Bernie Sanders’s supporters will vote for Biden. As they did in 2016, some will stay home, and some will vote for Trump. NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece reported that “in 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall, according to an analysis of exit polling — well over twice the president’s total margin of victory in those states, which were critical to his electoral vote win in the face of a decisive popular vote loss.”
After the Russian collusion hoax, the impeachment hoax, and everything in between, corporate media has lost a lot of credibility. Americans have recently watched MSNBC’s Ali Velshi tell viewers the Minneapolis riots were “not generally speaking unruly” as an out-of-control fire raged in the background. They saw the Washington governor and Seattle mayor condone an “autonomous zone” set up by anarchists in the heart of the state’s largest city, and they’ve witnessed the toppling of statues of great Americans throughout the country.
It should come as no surprise that most voters do not believe Mount Rushmore is a racist monument, that America is an irredeemably racist nation that must be burned down and rebuilt, nor that Biden’s victory is a foregone conclusion. Not everybody is ready to hop on board the socialism train. Thank God for that.
Note: This poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted July 1-3 by the Democracy Institute. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed were Democrats, 38 percent were Republicans, and 24 percent were independents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent and a confidence interval of 95 percent.
FTA; ‘Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed were Democrats, 38 percent were Republicans, and 24 percent were independents,’
Key info, usually missing which adds credence. Biden’s slide starts now.
I wouldn’t invite Biden to a barbeque and watch him drool.
Shocker poll! Most Americans would rather have a beer with Kayleigh McEneny than Lori Lightfoot
...77 percent of the 1,500 likely voters surveyed do not view Mount Rushmore as a racist monument... 29 percent of participants indicated “Black Lives Matter,” and 71 percent marked “All Lives Matter.” ...When asked if they believe Biden is in the early stages of dementia, however, 55 percent answered yes, and 40 percent no... Seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are very enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to only 43 percent of Biden supporters... 81 percent of Trump voters say their choice was “a positive vote for [their] candidate” rather than a “negative vote against his opponent.” For Biden, only 29 percent said it was a positive vote, while a whopping 71 percent said it was negative... 4 percent of Trump supporters indicated their vote could change by Election Day, 12 percent of Biden backers said they could change their minds... not all of Bernie Sanders’s supporters will vote for Biden... some will stay home, and some will vote for Trump... Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed were Democrats, 38 percent were Republicans, and 24 percent were independents...
Change the poll to ask which would you invite to COOK a barbecue, I bet Trump’s numbers go up bigly.
Probably 1 point too high for Rs, but depends on the state.
Nevertheless, they are a little low on the EVs. Trump will get 320-340, adding MN and NH. Maybe depending on how bad Biteme gets, NM and NV and ME.
Trump should win the popular vote. I see a LOT of third party (Kanye) that will hurt Demented Perv Biteme.
Also, there is no way he wins the pop vote with only a 30% college turnout as I predict based on the schools closing; and 78% of the black vote (Cankles lost with 88%). Kanye may take that down close to 60%.
The polls are all over the place right now. I don’t care if they show President Trump 20 points ahead, or 20 points behind. The bottom line is that the Democrats will pull out all of the stops this time, including massive voter fraud. This election is for the Democrats what the Battle of the Bulge was to the Germans - one last desperate attempt to turn the tide and defeat President Trump. We cannot be complacent. We cannot assume that the President will easily win reelection. We must do everything in or power to get people to the polls and turn back the Democrats in November.
Sure, like Hillary was a slam-dunk in ‘16...
Here is a poll I did this last weekend. I drove the back roads through towns, villages and hamlets in New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. I saw 1 Biden sign, 7 Trump signs, and 6 BLM signs (3 homemade). Considering most Trump supporters are leary of putting out signs because ... vandalism ... I’d say Trump is leading in the heartland.
I contend the California AB5 legislation will cost Ds many popular votes, and hopefully swing a district or two back to the R column.
Their legislature’s arrogance in this time of high unemployment will hurt them badly.
The ‘shy-voter’ info was stunning, imho, and deadly for Ds. Are they stupid enough to ignore it once again ?
Indications some are, some are not, but how would anyone get accurate information if WE AIN’T TALKIN’ .
Good point on lower college-aged turnout with colleges closed. No peer pressure to get out and vote. Should also be a steep decline in college students working to get out he vote.
What are you current thoughts on the popular vote? 9 States now have the popular vote law and 18 more trying to pass it.
1) I think Trump wins the pop vote. When that happens, you’ll see the lefties rescind & repeal these “compact” votes faster than Newsome can lock down a healthy city.
2) The “compact” is meaningless until 279 electoral votes’ worth of states sign it. But even then, it means nothing until/unless actually enacted. (The legal principle of “moot-ness,” i.e., you can’t challenge a law until there is a real harm-—it’s the reason the USSC refused to hear the NYC gun case, because it was moot. NYC repealed it, so no one actually suffered a harm).
The Court will NOT act on hypothetical harms. So a case against this will not go anywhere until someone loses an election in which one person wins the popular vote, loses a “compact” state, has the compact put in force, and a legal challenge is issued. One would hope this would be expedited and settled as was Bush v. Gore before the electors are counted.
So don’t hold your breath waiting for a court challenge, and don’t worry about the “compact” states until their number reaches 279 worth of states.
Thanks, Larry. Good synopsis.
I want Trump to take the popular vote.
These popular vote compacts are like little kids that didn’t win the game and demanded to change the rules. I grew up with a bunch of siblings and know their next claim after Trump wins the popular vote is that we cheated somehow.
There are a good 8 races there we “can” flip. We got one (CA25) and that I think will be safe. I think Valladeo (a mere 800 votes) will flip and Young Kim probably will be able to re-take her seat.
If we hold 25 and flip the other two, I think that would be an indicator we’ve flipped the House. If only CA +1, likely lose by a couple of seats. More than 3, good chance we have a nice 5-10 seat majority.
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