COVID-19 Update - 07/17/2020

My own workup | 07/17/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 121

As of 07/16/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Counties Report Was Not Live in the 07/16/20 report for 07/15/20

When I went in to capture the data for Counties yesterday morning, it was not
there. The data on the JHU site just wasn't there. What was posted was the
same data from the day before.

I meant to post a notice of that here yesterday, but it slipped my mind. For
any of you that watches those figures or uses them for studies, sorry about that.

Fatalities Remained Heavier...

Fatalities remained just a hop skip and a jump from 1,000 yesterday. The count
was 968. That was up only 0.83% from the same day the week before.

This and the results from the last few days seem to indicate there isn't much
strength in a rising Fatality rate. A few days back, it seemed to me there was
strength in rising numbers in that category. Now it looks as if those numbers
are stalled in the mid 900s as a high these days.

Not real sure where these numbers will go for now, up or down. Either is possible,
but there's no real indicator at this point.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

We've seen our numbers of New Cases grow almost more than we can believe. We
were showing 20k a month or so ago. 77k is almost four times as high as this
category was not too long ago. This has helped to blow out the global nunbers
also. Today was a new record there.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

You can check out the status here. Not too happy about it. It is what it is.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

Testing number were massive yesterday. That was the highest legitimate number
we've seen per day. At the same time the Positive Rate has gone back up into
the 9.00% region. That combo produced the highest New Cases day on record, both
domestically and globally.

You can see the direction we're headed there.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

The Active Cases and Resolved Cases are closing. Some time a couple of days from
now we'll probably see them intersect. Seems like they did their best to avoid it.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Look at that record number of Global cases yesterday. Pretty massive.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This area took a turn for the worse yeterday. It was a Thursday, and the number
here was a new all time record in this category.

It's pretty clear the New Case declarations are a lot heavier than they were a
few weeks back. Those were heavier than weeks before that. Still,... the
important thing to watch is the level of Fatalities.

These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.

. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Hard to miss the correction in the direction of the U. K. there. I double checked
the data, and the correction has been sustained for the last day and a half.
It is accurate. Unless a correction occurs, the U. K. just changed
direction.

The U. K. line there is quite similar to France's line over a month ago.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

As the number of daily Fatalities grow, the dismissing of those high levels of
New Cases loses favor. I wouldn't mind 100k New Cases per day, if the Fatality
rate was low. If the fatalities move up into the thousands per day level
it's going to be a problem.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.005% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

I'm a little surprised to see this over 63.00%. I had resigned myself to the
idea we weren't going to go up much higher right now. Wrong...

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

For your review...

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

U. S. Fatalities for the day fell back below 1,000 yesterday. I'm not seeing the
strength to grow numbers here I was seeing a week or so ago. Will be interesting
to watch.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

In the lasts 40 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had even one clean count day over 1,000 out of those 39 days, but the day before
yesterday we did. Then yesterday we slipped back below 1,000.

New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s We had a little mini-event just after New Jersey also.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

If you'll note, we just passed the half a percentage point of our populace's
infection rate.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Look at that massive margine of increased New Cases over the same day in prior
weeks. Not good...

We happen to be the primary reason for that too. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We came in at 23rd again on the Testing per million scale yesterday. Running over
760 thousand tests didn't hurt this metric any.

Progress...

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Bulwinkle]

If you Had COVID and RECOVER and the die from something else it is countered as a COVID death!

“ Presumptive laboratory evidence:
Detection of specific antigen in a clinical specimen
Detection of specific antibody in serum, plasma, or whole blood indicative of a new or recent infection”

That’s right, “RECENT INFECTION”!
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/case-definition/2020/

[Raycpa]

My belief is this system is similar to how a wildfire spreads. Fire breaks can slow down the spread but eventually they burn out when they run out of fuel.

Some of us are dry wood and some of us are too wet burn.

[afchief]

This Covid BS is NOTHING BUT A LIE!!! IT IS THE FLU!!!

Ready To Hang ‘Em Yet?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=239710

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Some of us are dry wood and some of us are too wet burn.

Good one.

[elbook]

“Cases” I assume are people with tests hitting positive (not neccessarily even showing symptoms or hospitalization)

When do ‘active’ “Cases” go OFF the counted statistics ?

The media constantly state more/record ‘cases’, but is this not just because there has simply been more tests being done now ?

.

[WildHighlander57]

From the link

https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/case-definition/2020/

in your post:

“Clinical Criteria

At least two of the following symptoms: fever (measured or subjective), chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, sore throat, new olfactory and taste disorder(s)

OR

At least one of the following symptoms: cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing

OR

Severe respiratory illness with at least one of the following:

Clinical or radiographic evidence of pneumonia, OR
Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
AND

No alternative more likely diagnosis

Laboratory Criteria

Laboratory evidence using a method approved or authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or designated authority:

Confirmatory laboratory evidence:

Detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ribonucleic acid (SARS-CoV-2 RNA) in a clinical specimen using a molecular amplification detection test

Presumptive laboratory evidence:

Detection of specific antigen in a clinical specimen
Detection of specific antibody in serum, plasma, or whole blood indicative of a new or recent infection*
*Serologic methods for diagnosis are currently being defined.

Epidemiologic Linkage

One or more of the following exposures in the 14 days before onset of symptoms:

Close contact** with a confirmed or probable case of COVID-19 disease; OR
Close contact** with a person with:
clinically compatible illness AND
linkage to a confirmed case of COVID-19 disease.
Travel to or residence in an area with sustained, ongoing community transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
Member of a risk cohort as defined by public health authorities during an outbreak.
**Close contact is defined as being within 6 feet for at least a period of 10 minutes to 30 minutes or more depending upon the exposure. In healthcare settings, this may be defined as exposures of greater than a few minutes or more. Data are insufficient to precisely define the duration of exposure that constitutes prolonged exposure and thus a close contact.

Criteria to Distinguish a New Case from an Existing Case
Not applicable (N/A) until more virologic data are available.

Case Classification

Probable

Meets clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19.

Meets presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence.

Meets vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19.

Confirmed

Meets confirmatory laboratory evidence.

Other Criteria

Vital Records Criteria

A death certificate that lists COVID-19 disease or SARS-CoV-2 as a cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death.”

NOTE THIS:

“Criteria to Distinguish a New Case from an Existing Case

Not applicable (N/A) until more virologic data are available.”

[Presbyterian Reporter]

WORLDOMETER reported new cases in the USA yesterday were 73,388.

But WORLDMETER added 78.198 cases to their Total Case number.

Still not sure why Worldometer is making these adjustments.

[buckalfa]

Good morning and thank you!

[Paul R.]

Is WoM adding to previous days? CDC does, with up to 2 week lags if it is a fatality confirmation, IIRC.

I’ve noticed that sometimes counties that have been running significant new (daily) fatalities may report few or none at all for a day or two, even in mid-week. This is statistically almost impossible as an actual physical event. So, if county “x” finally gets their full report for 7/15 posted, on 7/17, but dated 7/15, does the “discrepancy” get added to 7/15 (and then the total new fatalities) or is it added to 7/17? I believe it’s the former - so maybe that happens to some degree with positive cases, too?

Of course (morning here) it could be it is a mistake that I don’t drink coffee. ;-)

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””Is WoM adding to previous days?””””

It appears they are. WOM originally reported 3,616,827 total cases for July 15.

Now WOM is reporting 3,621,637 total cases for July 15.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.

Jul 1 = 325
Jul 2 = 341
Jul 3 = 244
Jul 4 = 160
Jul 5 = 150
Jul 6 = 380
Jul 7 = 333
Jul 8 = 409
Jul 9 = 435
Jul 10 = 421
Jul 11 = 248
Jul 12 = 227
Jul 13 = 383
Jul 14 = 453
Jul 15 = 491
Jul 16 = 366

During the week Jul 1 thru 7 there were an average 276 new covid hospitalizations each day.

During the week Jul 8 thru 14 there were an average 368 new covid hospitalizations each day.

We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over three weeks.

We can conclude there is an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients. How this increase in new hospitalizations plays out is yet to be seen.

Given the fact that Florida has 62,000 hospital beds, the number of new hospitalizations of covid patients seems manageable.

Death rates in Florida are starting to creep higher.

[Theoria]

Thanks for doing this.