Posted on 07/18/2020 7:33:24 AM PDT by bray
I will praise thee with uprightness of heart, when I shall have learned thy righteous judgments. Psalm 119:7 (King James Version)
Once again, we have the analysts quoting these phony polls as if they were gospel when they have been proved over and over to have no correlation to election results. You would have a better chance of accuracy of throwing darts blindfolded at a spinning dartboard since it would take out the obvious bias. When you have no idea of what the actual turnout will be for the candidates then you have no idea of the outcome and by all appearances Trump has the motivated angry voters.
I started my writing hobby by making colorful posts on my beloved Oregon Ducks and people were always axing me how I was able to predict wins and seasons so well. One year in particular the entire board and local sports talk radio were predicting a disastrous year for the basketball team and most picked between 8 and 10 wins while I was predicting 21. They ended up winning 28 and getting to the Sweet 16.
This was simply one example, but I did it over and over and have always been the most accurate over the years until the board got woke and became unbearable to write for. The reason I was able to beat the experts and negative fans on the board was by going against groupthink. It really was as simple as that and analyze actual facts rather than repeat the groupthought.
Sports analysts are some of the most overpaid weathermen in the business. If you watch them, they all predict exactly the same teams as everyone else and are wrong about 50-55% of the time. If you were to take the average of predictions of the Super Bowl you would find they are wrong as often as they are right at about 50% and these people are paid millions of dollars to be right when you could do the same thing with a coin.
As a professional sports analyst you want to sound intelligent and knowledgeable so when it comes to picking a winner before the game is played you see who everyone else is choosing and you pick that team. Then you decorate the cake with your reasons which are all subjective but sound legitimate and give solid reasons why this player or that will win the game.
Why is it done that way? Simple economics, if you are all right you look like geniuses but if you are all wrong you can simply say you didn’t see the upset coming and you were all shocked. If you are out on a limb by yourself and you are wrong, then you are stupid and the group makes fun of you. After you miss a few out on the limb by yourself you are out of work and looking for a new career. This means you always go with the groupthink leading up to the game and you will all be right or all shocked with the upset since the better team didn't really win.
Back in the day, I was right around 80% with my Ducks since it was a building program and the experts were always picking against them. Even the fans would pick against them to sound so intelligent and above the fray so they can be pleasantly surprised when they win as they stroked their objective chins. I simply had fun predicting the win all the way to the game and when we won, I was able to enjoy it all the more. When we lost it was twice the gut punch since I was truly sold on winning with no doubt about losing.
There is no difference between sports and election analysts other than sports commentators are not usually rooting for one team to win. They never cry on air when the team they predicted to win by a huge margin gets blown out by the upsetting team. Sports analysts will spend days and weeks explaining the strengths of the upsetting team and how the events occurred so the win happened. They do not spend the next year trashing the team and whining about how their team had the game stolen from them.
Pollsters do the same thing; they see what all the other pollsters are showing, and they will make their poll shadow theirs. They are not going to go out on a limb and be an outlier although some are simply pushing a narrative, they are never going to go against the grain so the Dem will always be in the lead if all the others show that. They know they will never have to explain what they got wrong so they make their polls and analysis look and sound like the group so they can all be right or shocked they missed something and all wrong.
Sports gurus will never go out on a limb more than once or twice in their lives for fear of losing face, political talking faces all belong to the same team and are going to echo the same message. To say Trump is going to win reelection will get you out on the smallest of limbs and nobody wants to be out there if the group is right.
How was I able to predict games at 80%, my Ducks won at around 80-90% it was just that the Debbie Downers were more interested in sounding intelligent than truly analyzing the teams. They were more afraid of going against the group and having to really point out strengths and weaknesses than simply repeating the echo chamber and saying how good the favorite was and how they beat such and such a team while ignoring the teams my Ducks had beaten. Back then, every team was good until Oregon beat them and then they were a lousy team since they lost to the Ducks.
You see the same thing in politics. Everyone is assuming Trump is losing and are reading the talking points of why. Even though 2016 should be fresh in their mind they have the same fake polls they used last time and the same polls which are wrong more than 60% worldwide and run around as a gaggle of geese hoping for a DNC win.
The analysts from the Conservative side are so intimidated from being outsiders they will not climb out on that limb and predict a Trump win even when it is staring them in the face. Which swing voter is not better off today than they were under Obama/Biden? That is all that matters.
So once again I am risking my 7 Presidential election streak and officially predicting a Trump reelection. My reasons are the incumbent is hard to beat since who wants to change horses in the middle of a flooded stream? Who would want to ride a dead horse? The economy is doing very well even with the virus and most are going to vote their wallets. The Christian vote is going to come out stronger than it did last time, and blacks are not buying BLM and are going to vote Trump between 30-50% as he goes after them like no Republican ever has.
This is real analysis and not the pap you see by the talking hair. These are real reasons although they need to be pushed with a solid grassroots campaign, but how you can look at these two candidates and not say Trump is the favorite is either pure bias or fear of going going out on that limb. This is as easy as picking my Ducks against overrated Florida State in the Rose Bowl. Who had FSU beaten, and my Ducks were loaded which is why they won 59-20 while I was doing the tomahawk chop in the endzone.
I was the minority who picked against the majority and loved every minute leading up to the game and the win. I also picked Trump to win the minute he gave his speech after coming down the escalator who could read America like no other politician. He talks to the common man and not the pundiots who are offended by that. This is why I picked 44 of 50 states correctly and they were seen crying on the screen the night of the election being wrong on 20 of 50. If these people were picked on accomplishments, they would be replaced but that is not how the media complex works.
As hard as it is you have to ignore the propagandists and realize they are really cowards to not go against the groupthink. Even though they likely have huge doubts listening to babbling Biden, there is no way they are going against their team or the echo chamber to claim Trump will win. Just remember, just like my Ducks, the proclaimed experts will never pick them which is a good sign they will win.
Pray for the election
He will be running against the DNC’s handpicked Bolshevik Woman of Color.
enough brayin
Yeah, but don’t get cocky. Trump would certainly win any free and fair election. Is the United States even capable of holding one of those now?
We have to get every Trump supporter out to vote, thwart Progressive attempts to divide the American electorate along racial lines and work like mad to stop Democrat ballot stuffing, dead voting, mail-in voting and “harvesting”.
100% agreed. Joe ain’t runnin. He went downhill so fast, I’m starting to think that his memory issues are made up. Like “the chin” Gigante.
The debbie downers here (and there are a bunch of them) ought to carefully read this piece.
It will be generations before a black is elected to the Presidency again.
Which state(s) will flip from blue to red and from red to blue?
Trump is going to win.
>>>It will be generations before a black is elected to the Presidency again<<<
Don’t bet on it. Most of the BLM protestors are stupid White People (especially Women), the same ones that got Obama Elected twice.
“The Chin’’ faked it and badly. Slow Joe’s dementia is real. If you’ve seen enough of dementia in people, as I have and do nearly everyday you know it when you see it.
The biggest ‘’tell’’ is that the patient , for the most part thinks everything is fine. This is where Joe is. He thinks it’s 1974 and he can get away with crude sexual antics and we still have ‘’record players’’ and ‘’radios in the home’’.
“Don’t bet on it. Most of the BLM protestors are stupid White People (especially Women), the same ones that got Obama Elected twice.”
That was then, this is now.
And I would most definitely bet on it.
EVERY
SINGLE
DAY!
That seems to jump out doesn’t it? All those stupid white people - ESPECIALLY THE WOMEN! Geez. Maybe if they could get laid a couple of times a week they might calm down.
I already said he will carry the states he carried last time and could add MN, NM and NV.
Every one of us has to go vote, even in solid democrat states! If feel-em-up-Joe is elected, he will implement the soros agenda, and give blm, the chicoms, the muzzies, everything they want - it’s over for us!
I think Joe also has a problem in that he has told self-aggrandizing lies all his life. As his memory falters, it must be difficult to distinguish memories that are real and memories that are lies he made up about himself.
We have to get every Trump supporter out to vote, thwart Progressive attempts to divide the American electorate along racial lines and work like mad to stop Democrat ballot stuffing, dead voting, mail-in voting and “harvesting”
Agree 100%. We cannot afford to get complacent by dismissing polls and articles we don't like as "biased" and "unrealistic", while praising polls and articles that we do like as evidence that President Trump will win in a landslide. In 2016, the Democrats took things for granted, assuming Hillary would win easily. They won't make that mistake again. This time, they'll pull out all of the stops to win the election if they can, and steal it if they must. They are pushing hard to conduct the election through nationwide mail-in voting, rather than have people actually go to the polls. ("It's too dangerous to vote in person because of the virus.") They want to keep the schools closed supposedly because it's too dangerous for the children to go in there (Guess where most polling places are located - in school buildings.) The Post Office is already delaying mail delivery. If we let them, in November, the results will be delayed because of the lag in mail delivery, giving them time to determine how many mail-in votes they need to manufacture before the races can be called. We need to stand our ground, insist on keeping the polls open, overwhelm them at the polls on Election Day, and fight for every vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.