Targeted bar and restaurant restrictions in Pa.: What early data says, Wolf’s logic behind them, more: Analysis

Pa. Gov. Tom Wolf and Health Department Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine rolled out new coronavirus restrictions on July 15 in an effort to slow what they feared was another surge in new cases.

The order was focused, both said, and targeted one area in particular: Hospitality.

Bars, restaurants, wineries, and breweries can now only serve alcohol for on-site consumption if it is purchased with a meal. Peanuts, chips, and pretzels do not count. Instead, the food has to be “prepared on the premises, sufficient to constitute breakfast, lunch or dinner,” per state law.

The thinking, it seems, suggests that by requiring a food purchase, customers are less likely to gather in confined spaces without a mask for long periods of time. That said, multiple drinks can be purchased as long as a meal is.

Indoor dining was reduced to just 25 percent of capacity from 50, bar service had to be stopped, and night and music clubs had to close. Additionally, and regardless of the industry, indoor gatherings were reduced to 25 people, and outdoor ones 250, except for religious institutions, which were exempt. The new mandate included requirements that those who can telework again, as well.

It all amounted to something of a mix between the green phase of Wolf’s reopening plan, which the entirety of the state has been in since Lebanon County finally moved there July 3, and the yellow phase, which the first county moved to back in May. Its impact is far-reaching but perhaps felt most by the foodservice industry, which was restricted to takeout or delivery sales for months as the global health crisis worsened.

When a county went green, things could return to something of a new normal. Then, in about the time it takes to flip a burger, that changed.

“Reduction to 25 percent capacity is essentially the same as eliminating indoor dining entirely and there is no scenario that restaurants can survive at that level of occupancy,” John Longstreet, the president and CEO of the Pennsylvania Restaurant & Lodging Association, told PennLive.

Here’s an attempt to outline the path that carried the state to Wolf’s July 15 announcement, which went into effect at 12:01 a.m. July 16, and how long it could last.

Just six of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties have their own health department, and they have the authority to make similar or more restrictive shutdown orders in addition to ones the state’s health department can make.

On June 28, the Allegheny County Health Department ordered an end to on-site consumption of alcohol in bars and restaurants.

Then, as June turned to July, officials continued to express concern about a new rise in confirmed coronavirus case counts; 90 new cases were reported on June 27th; 96 on June 28th; 109 on June 30th; 110 on July 1st; and then 233 on July 2, per a press release. A higher percentage of tests were coming back as positive, too.

So, on July 2, right before the busy Fourth of July weekend, Allegheny County’s Health Department said bars and restaurants had to close their in-person operations while limiting group gatherings to just 25 people for at least a week. Their order explained why.

“ACHD investigations of each new COVID-19 case indicates that the sudden increase in cases beginning on June 22nd was due, in large part, to crowded conditions at bars, restaurants, and other businesses serving alcohol,” it wrote.

“To the extent that the ACHD has determined that the increase in COVID-19 cases is attributable to crowded conditions at bars, restaurants, and similar businesses serving alcohol, it further determines that appropriate disease control measures shall be required in order to abate and mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Allegheny County.”

Bar and restaurant owners immediately expressed their frustration in a manner their peers around the state would echo nearly two weeks later. But, a different ACHD press release issued July 2 cited data from June 20-June 30 in the county and offered additional insight.

“The Health Department is providing the following information on recent cases:

Four individuals indicated during case investigation that they had attended a protest – and two of these had also visited bars and restaurants.

New cases reported visiting over 40 different bars, restaurants and night clubs. About 15 establishments were identified more than once by new cases, who reported that in many of these locations, neither patrons nor employees wore masks or practicing physical distancing.

By July 8, outdoor dining was allowed again, but customers were limited to three alcoholic drinks per visit and everyone had to sit at a table.

More: Pa. targeted mitigation order FAQs: What counts as a meal at a bar? How it applies to weddings, schools, more

A new order issued July 17, two days after Wolf’s and Levine’s, was more restrictive than the state’s, allowing just 25 people at indoor events and 50 outdoors. Bars and restaurants had to be closed by 11 p.m., too. The reasons remained the same: The confirmed case count continued to rise, and crowds at bars and restaurants were still being blamed, according to the order.

Here’s a look at Allegheny County’s case count by day since July began, via its Twitter page:

The data shows a decline of late, but still, some will wonder if bars and restaurants were truly the culprits they were made out to be, or if something else has kept the county away from 200 or more new cases this weel. The other side of the argument, however, says that reopening them is unlikely to help continue the decrease in positive cases, and so they remain restricted.

All told, the seeds for the state’s latest mitigation order started in Allegheny County in late June.

“Pennsylvanians have been ignoring mask-wearing requirements and social distancing when they are visiting Pennsylvania bars and restaurants,” a press release said.

Pennsylvanians traveling to out-of-state and then returning home, and also out-of-staters visiting the Keystone State.

A lack of national coordination in the fight against COVID-19. In other words, other states reopening too broadly too early were seen as a reason for the flare-up of cases in the Keystone State.

Wolf and Levine have said often since the pandemic’s earliest days that they can’t restrict intrastate or interstate travel, and thus targeting that for focused mitigation was out of the question. So, too, was the idea of controlling how other states were operating, for obvious reasons.

“We’re trying to follow the dictate of this virus, and this virus is saying, ‘I’m back,' and you might have done everything you need to do in Pennsylvania, but you couldn’t control what happens in all these other states, you couldn’t control who’s going to be going across your state borders, you couldn’t control who’s going to congregate in bars,” Wolf said July 15.

“I don’t like this any more than anybody else does, but this is what we’re trying to do. This is what we need to do if we want to stop this in its tracks, right now, so that by, the time we get to the opening of schools we can do that.”

Bars and restaurant owners, their employees and patrons, however, wanted evidence that they were the problem that needed to be controlled. And Pennsylvania can’t completely provide it, at least not in black and white numbers.

“The press release, from Allegheny County, highlights the number of cases from June 20-30 and discusses the large percentage of those that came from bars and restaurants,” Maggi Mumma, the Deputy Press Secretary for the Pa. Department of Health, told PennLive Wednesday. “In our case investigations, we have heard information of concerns in regard to this. The Department of Health also conducted analyses and case investigations in counties outside of Allegheny that demonstrate bars and restaurants as a nexus for the spread of COVID-19.

“That case investigation data is not available in an aggregate data where it can be shared.”

So what supporting arguments can be shared? Here is a sampling of the information Mumma provided to PennLive. All quoted material below comes from the Health Department’s Wednesday response:

“We have seen cases remain low in Philadelphia, which has yet to allow indoor dining and bars, New York and New Jersey, who have not allowed for indoor seating at restaurants to resume, or for bars to open.”

“The CDC, on their website about restaurants and bars amidst COVID-19, lays out several different categories of risk. The highest risk is on-site dining with both indoor and outdoor seating where seating capacity is not reduced and tables are not spread at least 6 feet apart. The mitigation efforts Pennsylvania is taking in bars and restaurants are necessary to keep restaurants and bars at the CDC’s described lowest risk level possible, without completely curtailing indoor dining.”

“A study out of Japan looked at 3,184 cases of coronavirus disease in Japan and found that “many COVID-19 clusters were associated with heavy breathing in close proximity, such as singing at karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, having conversations in bars, and exercising in gymnasiums.”

“This study led to some national reporting about the fact that closing bars could help stop the spread of the virus. We know that locations that are crowded, where social distancing is not possible, where you have to breath heavily to be heard are among those that leave individuals most susceptible.”

In addition, Wolf said during a news conference this week that the state would not be identifying specific bars that were a problem, but did double down on the fact that the state has information, some of which is surely outlined above, to support its latest effort to keep the case count in Pennsylvania from rising to the levels seen in problem states the administration often cites, like Florida and Texas, where similar limits on alcohol sales are also in effect.

“What we focused on is, we know that [the uptick in cases] are coming from places where people are coming together and in close contact and where they’re drinking,” Wolf said. “That’s bars, and so, the order, I think, has really addressed that in a targeted way. The question used to be, you know, red, yellow, green [phases]; we’re not doing that. We’re actually saying ‘Okay here’s where the problem is. That’s where the problem is, let’s make that that our focus.'

“If we don’t do this, I keep saying this, If we let it just burn, we’re going to get to where Florida is and that’s not going to be good for anybody. Not a bar, not a restaurant, not a business, anybody, and so, we’re trying to avoid having that happen by acting decisively as we did early on, and hope for the same good results.”

Longstreet, the restaurant association president, expressed frustration over the restrictions in general but particularly the 25 percent indoor capacity limit, which he claims came after discussions about keeping the 50 percent limit previously a part of the state’s green phase in place.

“All of a sudden out of the clear blue without any notice, they reduced it to 25 percent. There will be no statistics that show 25 percent makes sense because they don’t exist,” Longstreet told PennLive.

“The only significance to that number is thousands of Pennsylvania restaurants close permanently and hundreds of thousands of employees are out of work.”

An online petition is being circulated, but beyond that, it’s unclear. Legal fights would likely side with Wolf’s powers as governor to impose the measures he believes are necessary to fight the coronavirus, and any action by the General Assembly likely would take far too long to reach Wolf’s desk, only to be vetoed, in all likelihood.

“How can one person have this much power? How can one person go across our constitution, stomp on it and never look back? And there’s nothing we can do? He has too much power,” Matt Flinchbaugh, owner of Flinchy’s in Lower Allen Township, told PennLive at a recent restaurant rally that aimed to gather support for the industry.

More: Are you wearing a mask? Dining out? Survey captures life in Pa.‘s green coronavirus phase

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court, however, has already confirmed the governor’s expansive authority during a health emergency after it sided with Wolf in a lawsuit filed by Republicans that attempted to end his coronavirus emergency declaration.

Levine is hardly the only health professional suggesting restrictions on bars and foodservice businesses that serve alcohol.

In a July 1 opinion piece published by the New York Times under the headline “We Have to Focus on Opening Schools, Not Bars”, Jennifer B. Nuzzo, an epidemiologist and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and Joshua M. Sharfstein, a pediatrician and a professor at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins, make the case the title suggests it might.

“A responsible strategy for reopening school starts with controlling the community spread of Covid-19 through distancing and the use of face masks, as well as robust tracing, isolation and quarantining, as all countries that have opened schools without spikes in cases did before resuming instruction,” they write.

“Reopening businesses that pose a major risk of community spread should be a lower priority than reopening schools, for which continued closure carries far greater harm. Reopening schools supports the economy, so businesses should do their part in reducing community transmission by allowing employees to work from home and following strict in-person social distancing.”

Then, there was this from Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, to a U.S. Senate panel in late June:

“Congregation at a bar, inside, is bad news. We really have got to stop that.”

That is anyone’s guess at this point in time, but various news conferences and press releases held or sent by from Wolf’s administration make one thing clear: Controlling case counts to allow schools to reopen in the fall is of utmost importance.

Put another way, the restrictions are likely to last until further notice, with, as previous PennLive reporting noted, changes only coming based on sustained positive news from a variety of models and data points such as but not limited to 7- and 14-day case averages and the percent rate of positivity when it comes to the number of COVID-19 tests administered versus the number that comes back as positive.

“We’re trying to shut this down in a short, focused way so that all of us can get back to work as quickly as possible,” Wolf said recently. “If we do nothing, we’re going to be overwhelmed by this disease, and that’s going to be a bad thing for all corners of the economy.”

The critter in the woodpile:

Four individuals indicated during case investigation that they had attended a protest....

...but blame the bars anyway.

Pennsylvania Ping!

Please ping me with articles of interest.

FReepmail me to be added to the list.

How many hospitalizations? How many deaths?

Those are the only numbers that matter.

Quarantine sick people

It’s a friggin virus

Quit panicking

Wash your hands

Don’t spit on the sidewalk

If the political class is intent on solving a non-existent problem and the metrics used to define this problem and its resolution can be manipulated at will that problem can go on indefinitely.

If the problem can go on as long as those in power wish it to, so to can those measures set in place to resolve the problem.

And since the problem can not be resolved by any measures put in place unless those in power wish the problem to end, new measures can be implemented at any time.

This COVID thing reminds me of FDR and the Great Depression. FDR was always rolling out a New Deal Program as the depression rolled on and on.

It is hard for a restaurant that is busy all the time to stay in business. I don’t see many around me making it. (I am in SW PA)

".... If the political class is intent on solving a non-existent problem and the metrics used to define this problem and its resolution can be manipulated at will that problem can go on indefinitely...."

BINGO! The #1 real answer to the government's reaction to this pandemic I've read so far.

You've bored right to the heart of why many states and locales are still in lockdown, mandating masks and social distancing, requiring businesses to close that I have seen clearly explained so far.

Garbage in = Garbage out.

We could be is perpetual, permanent lockdown with these political wizards in charge.

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