Posted on 08/12/2020 6:58:20 AM PDT by nwrep
Summary:
Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.
But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.
Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.
That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.
If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.)
Nate hedges his bets better this time, but is still a liberal hack.
“””Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide,””
I’ll keep my record player turned on so I can listen to the news about this, man.
Your personal gold standard of polling. But then again, you actually believe in polling.
I do, especially this year. Thank you.
The actual headline is “It’s Way too Soon to Count Trump Out.”
Nate may be liberal, and he may be gay, but I think he is still a very good statistician. He is analyzing polls that have a bias, and that he bakes into his narrative that Trump is starting statistically where he finished statistically in 2016, which is by no means dead, speaks volumes.
One can think the polls are bunk, but they are still the polls that actually exist, like them or not.
does that map show Biden winning Louisanna and Florida? ROFL
nope!
The pollsters are making the exact same mistakes they made in 2016, and getting the exact same results.
That is the definition of stupidity—doing the same wrong thing over and over again, and expecting different results.
the squirrel gives me more confidence in Nate Silver.
Nate is smoking way too much reefer or, maybe drinking too much booze. The POTUS/VP ticket of Democrats, Joe Biden & Kamala Harris is the joke of the century...period!!! Nate, ya better revise your goodies...you are dead wrong!!! Read my lips, Nate Silver...it is a Trump victory in a massive landslide!!! But, Nate if you hold to your prediction...welcome to the legions of Democrat Party, BUTT WIPES!!!
That is one of 40,000 simulations run through the statistical prediction model.
I have more confidence in a rotting pile of manure predicting elections than I do Nate Silver. This is all a waste of time blathering about something that will not occur this year.
“One can think the loss are bunk, but they are still the polls. . “
One can doubt that the moon is made of cheese.
But the media is still saying it so it is a notion.
Silver gave Trump a 1% chance of winning in 2016
The Lord of the Algorithms comes down with a very scientific, definite maybe.
Even Nate knows the Kamala selection stinks on ice.
On election night Nate’s percentage chance of HRC winning dropped by 20% per hour.
Biden favored to win FL and LA? I dont think so.
Biden wins LA and FL?? No fkn way.
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