Nate Silver releases election forecast: Looks very similar to 2016, too soon to count Trump out

FiveThirtyEight ^ | August 12, 2020 | Nate Silver

[USS Alaska]

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

When did I read this before?

August 12, 2016, Nate, the Invincible, made the same prediction.

But, this time it's going to be different.

[Gay State Conservative]

IIRC Silver had ILLary with a 75% chance of winning when all the rest had her at 98%.If Plugs flips PA...his “home state”...the President can still win. Seems that FL and MI will be key.

[DoodleDawg]

At least they admit that their call in 2016 was way off and give that as a reason why they’re not convinced of what the polls say currently.

[DoodleDawg]

At least they admit that their call in 2016 was way off and give that as a reason why they’re not convinced of what the polls say currently.

[angelcindy]

ANYONE who votes fopr Basement BIDEN is nuts.....they want to destroy this country...

[TexasGunLover]

does that map show Biden winning Louisanna and Florida?

I think you forget the slim margins in Florida.

[CommerceComet]

does that map show Biden winning Louisanna and Florida? ROFL nope!

I saw the same thing. Flip those two states with their 37 electoral votes and Trump is now at 272.

[italianquaker]

Oh noes another landslide win against President Trump lol

[DaxtonBrown]

Nate has Florida, Louisiana and Arizona in the Dem column on that map. I don’t think so. Pennsylvania too once they figure out President Kamala is Green New Deal anti coal.

[Lazamataz]

Those are random results from 40,000 simulations fed into the statistical model. Thank you.

You say that like it is meaningful.

Here is a simulation for you:

while (int i=1; i++; I<40001)
{
     rand float = random(time.now, 1.00);
     case {
        when rand < 0.20
           console.println("Joe Biden Wins!");
           break;
        when rand < 0.40
           console.println("Joe Biden Wins!");
           break;
        when rand < 0.60
           console.println("Joe Biden Wins!");
           break;
        when rand < 0.80
           console.println("Joe Biden Wins!");
           break;
        when rand < 1.00
           console.println("Sadly, Donald Trump Wins.");
           break;
     }
}

So based on my statistical simulation, Trump only has a 20% chance of winning.

What balderdash, both mine and Silver's simulations.

[Lazamataz]

There are also simulations showing Trump winning Oregon and Nevada and Minnesota.

Again, you say that like it's meaningful. Shall I offer you another simulation generator, or did the first one make my point?

[Lazamataz]

"He gave Hillary 99% in 2016" An easily, provably and demonstrably wrong statement. Thank you.

He gave Hillary more than 66% in 2016. An easily provable and demonstrably correct statement. Thank you.

(Whaddya, Nate's cousin?)

[TBP]

It looks so similar to 2016 that liberals should be scared. Instead, they’re overconfident.

[nwrep]

It looks so similar to 2016 that liberals should be scared. Instead, they’re overconfident.

It seems to me that conservatives are overconfident this time.

[OrangeHoof]

There’s nothing that illustrates statistical analysis like cartoon characters!!

Does Nate Silver include those because his target audience has the emotional IQ of an 8-year-old?

[OrangeHoof]

Let the pollsters conclude Biden has it in the bag. They rig the polls to show he’ll win and then believe their own rigged data.

I’m ready for another “shocking” November Trump win. Get those video recorders churning. There will be sooooo much liberal crow to eat.

[Cuttnhorse]

"One can think the polls are bunk, but they are still the polls that actually exist, like them or not."

And these would be similar to the polls that gave us president Hillary...oh, wait.

[Lazamataz]

It seems to me that conservatives are overconfident this time.

I don't think so. We are, however, very hopeful.

[Brown Deer]

Note that this forecast is a statistical prediction, not a political prediction.

It's not based on any statistics. It was created with a biased random number generator.

[rb22982]

Spot on