Posted on 08/12/2020 6:58:20 AM PDT by nwrep
The map shows one potential scenario among forty thousand in the Monte Carlo-style simulation. Biden has a slight edge in Florida, 51-48, within the margin of uncertainty. No polls yet surveyed Louisiana, but the model suggests a lean toward Trump, 58-42. We have polls in formerly red states like Arkansas and Alaska that suggest strong support for Biden, perhaps enough for a victory.
Keep campaigning and be sure to vote Trump. If eligible voters among Trump supporters don’t vote in huge numbers, then Biden certainly will win.
He hasn’t learned to adjust polls for their true inadequacies and believes the pollsters are even-handed, just like last time.
When the pollsters were wrong before and their methodologies haven’t appreciably changed to compensate for the problem with polling in which conservatives don’t want to share their stance while liberals over-express theirs, then you can’t have accurate predictions off of them.
Pollsters under represent conservatives and over represent liberals. Any statistician who can’t see this obvious bias and correct for it is an idiot.
His map shows Louisiana going for Biden. Disqualified.
When? Two months before? As I recall, he gave him a 3-in-10 shot the night before the election. That is a heck of a lot more than most did.
This afternoon, the pro-Trump trends continued, taking Trump up to 32.5, which is the best that he has done, so far as I know, since the model was released. There was one point early on where he hit 32 in intraday, but did not settle there.
Iowa just moved from “slightly favoured” to “favoured” (70% is the cut off for this category). All the states in the “slightly favoured” category have been trending Trump of late.
Silver, or in the least his model, is not saying slam dunk Biden. I expect this trend to continue.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.