Pennsylvania Ping!
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Posted on 08/13/2020 9:50:35 AM PDT by lightman
It’s a simple question, really.
Do state Republicans, constantly thrashing Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf over his handling of COVID-19, pump up President Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania base?
And, if so, does that push the state off it’s “Leans Dem” designation (reflected in views of prognosticators from the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato to the Cook Report to Inside Elections) and put it into the “Toss-up” group?
Instinctively, you’d think, nah.
Polling and most punditry suggest the structure of the state race is set, in favor of native-son Joe Biden. His VP pick of Kamala Harris further helps in that it’s likely to boost turnout among minority voters, especially women. Besides, since when do state issues sway presidential races?
Ah, but can the coronavirus, a global issue impacting every aspect of our lives, shove political “structure” off kilter? And can partisanship around the issue affect the state vote in a presidential election?
Consider: Trump’s base is mostly outside cities. The loudest complaints about Wolf center on one-size-fits-all restrictions. Often, less populous Republican areas with few virus cases are treated the same as Democratic population centers with lots of cases. That riles Republicans.
GOP voter registration, through June, is running much higher than Democratic registration. So far, it’s cut the state Democratic edge down to 801,000. It was 916,000 in November 2016, when Trump won the state by 44,000 votes.
Meanwhile, Republicans paint Wolf an out-of-touch elitist who exaggerates health risks while favoring government control over personal freedoms.
Wolf’s hit for ordering or advising curbs on business, booze, golf, bars, churches, restaurants and high school sports. He’s at the center of mask/no mask wars. He takes heat for not working with the Republican legislature.
Franklin County GOP Sen. Doug Mastriano, a harsh critic who’s on social media (hourly, it seems) busting on the Guv, wrote in a recent op-ed piece that Wolf, “Enjoys being a fearmonger.” Senate Republican Leader Jake Corman and others label Wolf’s decisions “unilateral, ill-considered.”
Facebook, Twitter and conservative talk radio (KDKA Pittsburgh personality Wendy Bell comes to mind) hound Wolf repeatedly.
Does it, over time, build on Trump’s base?
I don’t know. I asked around.
Robin Kolodny chairs Temple University’s political science department: “What we know from 50 years of political science data is that presidential approval and economic prosperity/hardship are the two things that propel turnout.
“I don’t see anything at the state level that could change that dramatically…also, how are those new coal and steel jobs working out where (pro-Trump/anti-Wolf) protestors live?”
Philip Harold, poli-sci prof at Robert Morris University in Allegheny County: “There’s a lot of anger and frustration out there…Wolf’s position on high school sports is politically dangerous in this regard. Without a reversal, and if Democrats are seen as the shutdown party, Pennsylvania should definitely be ranked as a toss-up state.”
Elizabethtown College poli-sci prof Fletcher McClellan: “It’s definitely a base turnout strategy and would be effective if we were talking strictly state politics in 2022…(but) at the presidential level, I think both D and R bases are highly motivated regardless of what state politicians do…I think Pa. is a toss-up, mainly because of the mess over mail-in voting, which includes pending lawsuits, Russian hacking, Trumpian tricks and the politicization of USPS.”
Penn State poli-sci associate prof Robert Speel: “While national politics often affect how people vote in state elections, the reverse is rarely true…(So) my guess is probably not, unless Gov. Wolf does something within a week or two before the November election that upsets rural and exurban voters…and even that may be too late if most voters have voted by mail.”
Berwood Yost, director, Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research: “I’m not sure talking about Wolf will drive voting in the presidential race. Generally, Wolf is more popular that the President in this state…Trump’s vote will turn out no matter what, and he will win most counties…the keys are whether voters see Biden as a reasonable alternative who they turn out to support, and whether Biden can cut into Trump’s margins in counties Biden doesn’t win.”
So, there’s a case with historical precedent suggesting GOP squabbles with Wolf don’t much play to Trump’s advantage. But, due to COVID, there is no historical precedent for the atmosphere and politics of 2020.
Question then is what factors (COVID, economy, mail-in voting, debate performance, etc.), and reaction to them, most move votes and how?
And that’s not so simple to answer.
Pennsylvania Ping!
Please ping me with articles of interest.
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It will be close. Democrats vote party over person.
Being so close to NYC and seeing what is happening there would cause anyone concern.
On my annual trek to Florida from Upstate New York I travel the entire width of Pennsylvania. I pass numerous TRUMP signs painted on barns etc. I have never seen the same phenomenon for either Clinton or Biden. If it weren’t for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the state would be solidly in the Red column.
Yes
Yes
Yes
and Yes
We have Republican State Senators who think they are getting close to flipping enough Democrats to override a promised Wolf veto of legislation ending the state of emergency. That is YUGE! Everybody is fed-up with this.
We live in Northampton County & have old friends that are BRAINWASHED by CNN. They live a totally conservative lifestyle & vote democrat. He owns a small business & hunts. They hate Trump.
PA is not leaning Dem. the only way Trump is in any threat of losing PA is mail in voting fraud... legit election and he will win the state by far larger margins than 16
Yes. The only question is will it be enough to overcome the massive voter fraud.
Dead give away on the politics of this POS journalist. Sorry, I haven't picked on PennLive/Patriot News for a while so I need to get a couple of digs in. I saw "native-son" and thought, "Com'on man, poll a 100 people in PA and ask where Joe Biden is from." Most, if they had an answer would say Delaware or Washington, DC. Like it means a damn thing. Only leftist journalists write tripe like that to give mental midgets a reason to vote for Biden.
Anyway, the author did a piss poor job in presenting an argument that the "guv" has pushed voters towards Trump. While the premise is true, the reasons are many more and much more compelling.
There are only 6 or 7 counties out of 67 that are solidly blue in PA.
last I checked, Trump won PA. What has happened since then. Best economy ever, bad trade deals reworked, low unemployment, all favor Trump. Joe Biden is not as strong a candidate at Billary and when folks see him debate, he will fail miserably. He has dementia. Since Covid, all Wolf has done is alienate people. Sure the partisans would be alienated no matter what.
The writer interviews political pundents on colleges who would be decidedly pro Dem just based on their environment and chosen profession. The writer will hear from the people in November.
Nobody outside of some corners of Scranton think of Joe Biden as a Pennsylvania son.
There were some burning fires in Philadelphia too, sadly.
Then again, what about fracking? D’s want to stop it.
And it weren't for the downstate cities, Buffalo and Ithaca New York would be solid Red.
‘If it weren’t for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the state would be solidly in the Red column.’
you could say the same for almost any state with large urban populations...
BUT, mail in vote fraud and vote fraud in general gives me real pause.
If I were guaranteed that voter fraud would be equal to or less than 2016, I would call PA for Trump as a lock, BUT...
I’m seeing more Trump signs in unexpected places around here in PA. Most people are unhappy with the mask haters who people blame for business closures at least as much as Wolf. Business closures are extremely unpopular and nobody wants to see that again.
Trump gains, I think, when Progressives we’ve never seen before come into our neighborhoods and try to tell us how to vote. Pelosi has done what we can always count on her to do, in overplaying her hand and hurting people. I might be wrong, but I think the Democrats have a San Francisco problem that is only going to get worse in non-San Francisco places.
Or they could ignore the diktats and take out the government thugs who attempt to enforce them.
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