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Wonder if we can banned all Chinese products.

It will take time, because the logistics have been 30 years in the making, but those of us in our 50s and above can remember when we got nothing from the "People's Republic" except black market fireworks.

In the '60s, Japan made our cheap stuff. "Made in Japan" was a bit of a joke. In the '70s and past, Japan became a quality importer, joining Germany in both cars and electronics. Hong Kong (then under U.K. protection) and Taiwan (R.O.C.) were for cheap electronics. Brazil and S. Korea were for cheap shoes. Baseballs were made in Haiti. Latin America for cheap textiles. Pharmaceuticals were made in the U.S. including Puerto Rico.

Only in the '90s with MFN/Normal trade status and WTO membership did Red China take over.

We can dial it back through law or tariffs (knowing full well that bad actors in Europe and elsewhere will move product around to obscure ultimate origin), and we'd be no worse off than in the '80s.

I still have some old “Made in Japan” stuff. Probably from the time when the Japanese had embraced Juran and Demmings.

Stuff’s still GREAT!

Japs were making F1 cars in the 60’s. Seikowas making professional dive watches as good as Swiss in the 60’s. “Made in Japan” was a joke because of Western chauvinism. There is no comparison, in engineering prowess, between the Japanese and China.

“It will take time, because the logistics have been 30 years in the making”

Very True.

But I believe that the supply chain will be ripped out of China, significantly faster than it went in - the lead times started in earnest, during President Trump’s first week in office, and the physical movement started in earnest as tariffs rolled out.

1. We are working on Trump time, with expert managers like Wilbur Ross guiding the strategy. The are using all the strongest levers, and are themselves members of the CEO elite, who rub shoulders and socialize with the decision makers.

2. Global consensus was already huge, but coronavirus has driven the International concern about ChiCom dominance into over drive.

3. The new trade deals are significantly designed to structurally incentivize pulling out of China.

4. There is no longer any doubt that President Trump can and will use tariffs to force the move out from China. Once he is re-elected, the calculus for the electronics industry will change big time. They will know that the second half of the tariffs (on electronics) are inevitable, and they will have to take those big hits to their sunk capital in Chinese production capacity. CEOs were naturally hesitant to take big write offs, but the math of tariffs will force those decisions. Their ample grace period to accommodate the long lead times needed to establish production elsewhere will be up, and President Trump will want the job done before the end of his second term - which likely means rolling out the new tariffs in the first year, with maybe a few quarters of waivers.

5. Push is likely going to come to shove, as things start cracking in the Chinese economy. Some crisis is likely going to speed up decoupling even more. Maybe it will be a debt, banking, real estate, stock market or currency crisis in China. Maybe it will be financial sanctions over Hong Kong, COVID-19, or aggression in the South China Sea, Taiwan, India, against the Uighurs, or some other. Maybe they will will serve up the policy that is the means of their own downfall, by trying something like cutting off pharmaceutical supply, out of hubris.

As things get more painful, they are unlikely to degrade gracefully and gradually. Stuff happens.

I anticipate, that Trump Administration strategists have anticipated, such breaking points from a gradual decoupling process. I will not be surprised if they plan for some sharper breaks.