Posted on 09/16/2020 3:32:00 PM PDT by Conserv
Political waves come unexpectedly.
That is especially the case when it comes to the House of Representatives.
In 1994, nobody expected the House to flip to the Republicans for the first time in 40 years.
The Contract with America was seen as a curiosity, Rep. Newt Gingrich’s (R-Ga.) vanity project. The media roundly lampooned it. And then November rolled around and history was made.
In September 2006, George Bush wasn’t that popular, the Iraq War wasn’t going that well, but most pundits and most Republicans thought the House would hold. Then the Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) scandal consumed Washington, and Nancy Pelosi was swept in as history’s first female Speaker of the House.
In September 2010, after the Tea Party summer, the smart set still didn’t see how the future would unfold. I remember seeing an analysis from an investment bank which confidently predicted that the House would stay in Democratic hands. Oops.
The election of 2018, perhaps, was more predictable. The Democrats raised unprecedented gobs of money and mounted unprecedented opposition to the unpredictable presidency of Donald J. Trump. But that new House majority was built on an unsteady foundation of districts that were initially captured by Trump two years before.
Most analysts now believe that Trump will lose his bid for reelection and Pelosi will stay on as Speaker.
But I wonder if that is true.
What are the Democrats running on?
Well, the smart ones are running on health care, the same issue that carried them to victory in 2018.
But the top of the ticket isn’t focused on health care. It is focused on hating Donald Trump.
Will hating Trump work in districts that went for Trump the first time?
I don’t know.
It certainly works on raising money from the uber-wealthy, who despise Trump because he is a traitor to their class.
But for normal Americans — those who want to get back to work, those who want their schools to reopen quickly, those who want to be able dine outside without getting harassed by mask marauders disguised as social justice warriors, those who respect the police and the American flag — hating Trump isn’t the main message they want to hear.
I look at the middle of Michigan in the 8th and the 11th districts, and I see voters who voted for President Trump but also voted for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), and I wonder if they are so enamored with the ridiculous lockdowns that have closed small businesses and penalized citizens who wanted to visit their cottages and do some recreational boating. The fact that the governor’s husband pulled a “do you know who I am?” when he tried to get in his own boat only made the situation worse for the Democrats in the Wolverine State.
I look at Minnesota’s 2nd District, and I think of how the riots in Minneapolis play in a part of the country that values law and order and believes strongly in the ideal of Minnesota nice. They might not love Trump there, but he beat Hillary Clinton by point and a half in the district and Republicans are investing serious resources to win the state for the first time since Nixon in 1972.
I look at New Jersey’s 7th District, and I see a scion of famous governor, running on the Republican ticket in a state that was hard hit by COVID-19. The current governor has used sky-high ratings to consolidate power and push a left-wing agenda that is just now starting to garner strong opposition. Trump lost the district by a point, and most analysts see Tom Kean losing. But these are the type of districts that move quickly in a wave.
The voters are restless to get on with their lives, disgusted by a political class that continually flouts the laws in private as they tout them public. Pelosi’s “hairgate” is but one example of politicians behaving badly.
GOP ramps up attacks on Democrats over talk of nixing filibuster Pence: Trump sees Florida, Minnesota, Arizona as keys to 270 Joe Biden is all about American calm again, as he sluggishly campaigns with his mask and his teleprompter.
But if Trump’s energy, enthusiasm and vision prevails in November, look for Republicans to catch a ride and recapture the House majority. Waves are hard to see in September but rise up quickly in November.
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We lost the House because of lies and Russia Russia Russia and all those nevertrumpers who purged themselves.
Frankly it was worth it. Good riddance Rinos.
We lost the House because of Paul Ryan and all of the Republicans that hated Trump. We shot ourselves in the foot, stabbed ourselves in the back.
Trump is like chemo therapy for our party. It hurts, but its the only way to rid ourselves of the cancer cells in the body.
I remember the late Chuck Harder saying in January of 1994, “Mario Cuomo could be in real trouble. Let’s keep an eye on that.” The media told us nothing was wrong and everybody loved Clinton’s congress and gun control measures.
“But if Trump’s energy, enthusiasm and vision prevails in November, look for Republicans to catch a ride and recapture the House majority.”
Very good news from the Hill.
Add Oregon 4 to the watch list. Most of it is kind of like West Virginia, only backwoods, but with Eugene thrown into the mix.
WV flipped a few cycles back. It’s time for the sons of millers and log workers to tell the liberals to duck off.
This makes me nervous. We’ve heard “red wave” (coughcoughmidtermcoughcough) predictions before.
Keep your powder dry, folks.
Trump could win, but if the House and Senate are Democrat he will have been impeached before the summer. They’ll either drum up something against Pence or use him as their whipping boy. Trump needs to win along with the House and Senate going Republican so that a purge of the swamp creatures in the executive branch and military can happen or the country is in big trouble.
West Virginia, only backwoods? OK. I heard someone jumped off the Robert C. Byrd Bridge a couple of hours ago.
Losing the house in 2018 was due to 2 BIG things: Harvesting VOTES IN SO CALIF and Paul Ryno and the other 35 rinos who retired to go to DEEP STATE jobs!!!
This year we have some excellent new house republicans running and I hope we sweep the old dem rats off the ship for good!
Don’t forget the ballot harvesting in CA!
The traitorous Demonicrats, their Deep State allies, and the Roberts SCOTUS majority will be working overtime to get fraudulent mail-in ballots, phony postmark dates, and treacherous court opinions coordinated to overthrow the constitutionial reelection of President Trump.
They stole the senate seat in Arizona too, by counting for a week after election night.
Trump will lose the West Coast, Illinois, Maryland, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. That’s it. It’s over.
Professional writers shouldn't make spelling errors like that.
No, McSally lost Arizona because she sucked as a candidate. Close elections in AZ always take a long time to count all the absentee ballots. McSally WON her house seat once in December, IIRC.
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