COVID-19 Update - 10/01/2020

My own workup | 10/01/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 197

As of 09/30/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities dropped by 34 cases from the previous day, to come in at 955
yesterday. That was a 14.35% decrease from the same day the week before.

New Cases dropped by 4,132 from the day before, to come in at 40,964
yesterday. That was an 0.72% decrease from the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities droped by 137 cases from the previous day, to come in at 6,138
yesterday. That was a 5.42% decrease from the same day last week.

New Cases rose by 25,463 cases from the day before, to come in at 318,418
yesterday. This was a 0.52% increase from the same day the week before.

Global Declared Cases Milestone

Global Case Declarations topped 34 million cases yesterday. Remember, we have
much fewer active cases than that, 7,708,614 to be exact.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations dropped off a moderate amount yesterday.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It's also informitive to look up the data columns to see how the
situation has changed recently. We're now seeing a percentage
that is rather significant.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active cases fell off by close to 11,200 yesterday. Nice!

Take note of the Serious/Critical case situation on the right there.
They've been going up and down recently.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Yesterday we looked better in both these categories.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Active Cases fell yesterday. I'm not sure if anyone else sees this the way
I do, which translates to the possibility I am wrong on this, but I see the
flattening during the first two weeks of June, to have been the end of the
first wave. It looks like the end of the second wave right now to me.

The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.

Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave. He may be
right. I'm not sure what the scientific requirements are to declare a wave
over. If it settles down, that seems like an end to me, and the chart looks
for all the world like a second wave to me.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing was at it's highest level ever yesterday, with 1,362,310 tests given.
Wow! The highest number prior to that was 1,086,851 on 09/19. I thought I,br. remembered some higher numbers, but looking back in my records I couldn't
find a higher number that one on 09/19.

This is the second day after the 14-day positive percentage of testing didn't
have to deal with that 9.988% postive single day rate on 09/25.
I thought it would immediately show a drop, and it did, but now it's going
even lower for now. The three-day and single-day looked exceptionally good.

That single day positive percentage is the lowest I can find going back to
04/11. It there is a lower one, I didn't see it. Great number...

Hope it is indicative of things to come.

As I suspected, we did see an even lower 14-day figure yesterday, and as you
can tell by the chart lines, we're in some better terrirotry these days.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

I like the New Case Declarations line right now. They are ever so slightly
moving in the direction of flattening.

The active case line has flattened out.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Texas and Florida took the top spots yesterday.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declartations rose by 25,473 cases yesterday.

The Resolved percent came in at 77.248% yesterday. Looking good...

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose moderately again yesterday. Serious/Critical
cases dropped off moderately.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This metric rose back up yesterday. We are in the higher reporting
days now.

It was a Wednesday, and the numbers rose as the global scene transitioned
deeper into the work week. We looked better by comparison.

The blue line seems to be poised to drop off a bit in the short term.
hope that pans out.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

<

The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)

France - Ooo

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

I checked the parameters for Spain, and they were correct. That growth is
amazing.

Frace is suffering the same fate.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.

The Netherlands is just going ballistic.

We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

India led out in both metrics again yesterday, by a wide margin in one
and a fairly substantive amount in the other.

If things don't change with regard to India's case momentum, it will replace
the United States as the nation with the most Declared Cases roughly six
weeks out.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

This chart revealed more of a flattening, but no more. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases, and then the size of their increased
numbers as they grow recently. Both are good signs of a more healthy situation.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We rose to a 77.304% level of Resolved Cases yesterday Globally.

I like these resolved rates have said so, but with so many cases having been
declared, we could have a 90.00% level of Resolved Cases, and still have a lot
Active Cases.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose up again yesterday, and Serious/Critical cases
fell off moderately.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

The numbers of Fatalities fell off a bit across the board.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

Our Fatalities fell off a bit yesterday. Nice.

Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

While we are still slipping on and off, we're still doing much better than weeks
back.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

After four days of not setting a new daily number, we did again yesterday.
It was a small inrease over the last highest Wednesday. The problem is
when we're headed into the highest reporting days of the week with new
records, it doesn't bode well for the Thurday and Friday numbers.

Fingers crossed...

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We remained in 20th place here yesterday.

Over the last couple of months we've been in this rut from 19th to 16th place.

Now we're at 20th place for three days in a row.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 1.

Data from PA Department of Health as of midnight September 30/October 1:

LTC deaths = 5456 (no increase, imagine that! /s)
Total deaths = 8160 (increased by 18)

LTC deaths as percent of total = 66.9%

A great miracle has happened here! No new LTC deaths...after yesterday when LTC deaths exceeded the total deaths.

When your Secretary of Health doesn’t know which restroom to use (plumbing or chromosomes) anything is possible.

[thinden]

Bttt

[Paul R.]

So (I mentioned a couple threads back), my wife, daughter and I all tested negative for CV-19... and a couple days later I got pasted by the worst “cold” I’ve had in years. Got up to 101 deg. F mild fever before the acetaminophen in the cold medicine knocked it back a bit. I was pretty dang useless for over 36 hours. But... ~ 40 hours after I started feeling “pretty bad”, I was “better”, and by 48 hours later, felt 90% of normal. So, the “course” of it was almost identical to my daughter’s, except it hit me harder and then declined a bit faster. Wifey’s nurse friend still thinks it was a rhinovirus - apparently there have been some similar cases locally.

I tried to isolate somewhat @ home, but with my daughter here too, and my wife also here & well exposed (some symptoms, but did not get nearly as sick), well... a 24/7 N95 likely would have kept the bug away, but, they are just too uncomfortable if worn over 2-3 hours at a time. Probably the best bet would have been to isolate in the pop-up camper! I’m not proposing that for winter, tho’!

Now, I do have a “data” question — will post shortly.

[Paul R.]

Anyway, my question is: Is there any way to know how many of the tests run are tests on persons with symptoms at the time of the test?

[halo66]

Kellyanne Conway tests positive...

[Paul R.]

2nd question: Is there any evidence of the recent cool weather in much of the eastern US having a regional effect on the numbers?

[DoughtyOne]

Heard that...

Seems strange how that she’s in the private sector.

All these infections would be coincidental. It’s still
quite interesting isn’t it.

[DoughtyOne]

I don’t now of any way. I haven’t run across anything
addressing that.

A lot of these tests are work related, or offshoot such as
that. You have to be cleared before you can x, x, and or x.

[DoughtyOne]

I’d have to sit down with weather maps, get a list of where
it has been cold, and then look at the numbers after colder
spells. I don’t have much time to add in these types of
studies.

[halo66]

Very interesting!