Posted on 10/06/2020 12:10:21 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in the crucial battleground of Florida for years, but have had little to show for it — walking away from the election box mostly empty-handed after failing to capitalize on their sizeable voter registration advantage.
Republicans have significantly cut into that lead in recent months, putting even more pressure on Democrats to turn out the vote in November — an uncertain proposition amid the coronavirus outbreak and for a political party that has long been on the losing side of razor-close, high-profile contests in the country’s largest swing state.
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.com ...
Our old friend, Mr. Smith (goes to Florida):
B”ut relying on an advantage in mail voting is risky in a year where norms are being upended by the pandemic, according to Dan Smith, a data guru who chairs the Political Science Department at the University of Florida.
“Voting by mail is a completely different process, one that is alien to many voters. To think that merely requesting a ballot means you’re going to vote is very risky.””
“very risky”
Lets see, voting in line because of the pandemic is “very risky”.
Voting by mail for Dems is “very risky”.
I guess Dems should just not vote.
Ha ha! AP should have hired one of us to write this article.
when you see articles like this... you know they’ve lost FL
Latinos are turning on Sleepy Joe (cubans, PRs)
He and Jill were campaigning in around Miami, where they are doing poorly... instead of the battleground I-4 corridor (Orlando to Tampa) tells me a lot.
I thought Biden was way up in Florida???
Is this the Babylon Bee?
well according to CNN, Joe should be up 16 points in florida
He’s up 16 with the LGBTQABCDEF sub group.
With the 30 point lead, why worry about turnout?
Our old friend, Mr. Smith (goes to Florida):
B”ut relying on an advantage in mail voting is risky in a year where norms are being upended by the pandemic, according to Dan Smith, a data guru who chairs the Political Science Department at the University of Florida.
“Voting by mail is a completely different process, one that is alien to many voters. To think that merely requesting a ballot means you’re going to vote is very risky.
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Translation: Democrat numbers aren’t nearly as good as they look on the surface.
I really do think Trump wins FL.
Another couple of weeks of VBM returns and we can see the trendline.
I’m guessing R returns overtake D returns within 2 weeks.
Right now Dems have returned 15% of their ballots, and Reps have returned 11.6% of their ballots. Rs overtake in 2 weeks and lead through election day (in terms of percentages returned).
I think R’s will be voting in person, unfortunately in CA. we are NOT ALLOWED to vote in person, I have very high hopes of getting our house seats back here however I now have very little hope I HATE THESE BASTARDS!!
But but but Mister Democrat, Little Michael is still going to buy us Florida right Mister Democrat, right?
I HAD very high hopes. OOPS!!!
Lies Trump is behind by 20 points no lol
Ha ha! AP should have hired one of us to write this article
_______________________________________________________
Exactly! Great work on the Florida #s, gents.
Gentlemen, our data is great and it pushes back on the BS narrative that is being pushed out by liberal professors and DC types who live in a bubble. But the data has to be considered in context. Just like very few (think Saleno Zito) predicted the uprising of working-class Trump voters, very few are taking into account the elephant in the room: the China Virus. The Democrat base is disproportionately frightened of the China Virus (think liberal and black women). There isn’t a day that goes by that I don’t personally observe “frightened behavior” by likely Democrats. Black women are much more afraid than any group I come in contact with, and they are the backbone of the party in most swing states. That’s understandable, as blacks have more virus deaths and at a YOUNGER age (e.g. 50s and 60s). These record-smashing VBM numbers are a combination of two things: FEAR and the DNC heavily pushing mail voting. If enthusiasm was causing these numbers, we would see huge spikes in youth and black VBM ballots. That hasn’t materialized.
Logically, if huge numbers of older voters are switching from voting in-person in 2016 to VBM in 2020, there is an element of fear of showing up to crowded polling places to vote in-person. How will that affect turnout for the 75% leftover pool of voters who did not request a VBM ballot in NC? The issue isn’t IF there will be voters who decide not to vote b/c of China Virus fear, but, rather, HOW MANY decide not to vote. Want some anecdotes?:
1) In the past month I am familiar with 5 black women who will not let anyone in their homes for fear of catching China Virus or passing it to a relative. These were relatives of criminal defendants I am representing-—I have black clients who judges will release to house arrest, but I can’t get relatives to take them b/c older people are afraid of the virus.
2) Today while standing in line at the Subway some Karen announced that she needed “extra space” for social distancing.
3) One of my employees advised that a neighborhood 7 year old is only allowed to play outside if he wears a mask! Mom doesn’t want him infecting elderly relative in home.
4) Freeper SamAdams76 advised that he lives in a 55 and over community where a handful of residents haven’t left their home since the outbreak even when a fire alarm went off.
5) A Democrat senate candidate debated from behind a plexiglass shield.
Granted, we all probably think the above is kooky, but its happening. Watch CNN, MSNBC, etc. BTW, the China Virus impact is already showing up in voter registration numbers, as Dems are afraid to canvass door-to-door. Just my two cents.
Slow clap
BTW, SpeedyinTexas received a 1 week suspension. He gave me his email if you really need to get data to him.
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