Posted on 10/12/2020 10:56:27 PM PDT by LibWhacker
I’m just trying to remember the odds in November of 2016....what was it...92-percent chance of Hillary winning?
The polling system is dead...probably for over twenty years.
And a bigger majority of bettors lost big time in 2016
they are just listening to msm
-its the same reason why the favorite in a horse race wins only 33% of the time- in other words 67% of the time the majority of money is wrong (the favorite in a horse race is only the favorite if a majority of $s are bet on it thanks to parimutuel system)
When I hear Biden is up +12 or +14 I ask lefties, do you think Biden will win by that much, sure they say!
Ignorign that it i s an electoral election, I say ok, give me Trump and 10 points nationally and I will bet you $1,000 -they all say-no,
nobody will take the bet
Simple gaming strategy!
Must be a bunch of professor types from east anglia.
Seven weeks of close contact.
And the majority of Europeans thought that by selling out some other country to Hitler at Munich that “There will be peace in our time”. Surprise, surprise.
Old American say, Europe, “A fool and his money are soon parted”. No US loans to fools anymore.
Gonna be a lot of gamblers crying in their beer as Trump wins.
Wow! That’s a good payout. Wished I had known that before. Went to another site where they actually had Biden winning at a pretty good margin. Still, I put my money (Renminbi - whatever currency that is) on Trump.
I’m very concerned if Trump loses. The Dems will not hesitate to go full bore on their agenda, not letting the opportunity go to waste this time around.
See predictit.org if you want to bet. Trump to win EV is at $0.40 with a $0.95 payout. Trump to win PV is at $0.20 with a $0.95 pay out. In 2016 I bet $830 and got paid $2,775
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
looks like odds of trump EV & pop vote win this year is stronger than 2016?
looks like free money?
do you suppose some one has to be certified with TDS before they vote for quid pro joe?
And the Nobel Prize Committee awarded Obozo the Prize because of his ‘\”potential”...which never materialized and which thereby degraded the value of the prize...bigly.
Money laundering.
69.25% + 33.33% = 102.58%
?
Nope.
The bets are not placed by the world but by NGOs who are influencing the election by placing a few bets.
You should read Jon Stossals article on this in 2016. he also believed the bets showed the wisdom of crowds until it was shown that its super easy to manipulate.
Which people were telling him before the election but it is hard to break out of your own template.
The democrats rigging is looking worse by the day odds changing.
They won't waste any time. Liberals enjoy leading. They're comfortable. Republicans like being the minority party and complaining. They still get paid. There will be no #NeverBidens to hobble the newly-elected president from within his own party. They'll circle the wagons.
I’m guessing those are the estimated chances of winning, and if you think of confidence intervals, there’s bound to be some overlap.
I didn’t consider the over/under, but you’re right, it wouldn’t be exactly equal to 100%.
Easiest bet I ever made.
I will win $150 million when Trump wins : )
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.