Posted on 10/15/2020 8:24:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
That’s a squeaker.
While a win is a win, a mid 270s count would not be enough to stop the DEMs from “vote counting” and steal one more state.
3334thewin!
Trump4moreyears!
AllahPundit is a moron. Of course if Cahaly is off in WI and PA, then Trump repeats 2016.
..how about 363 instead?
That means that Biden would have to run the table winning all the swing states and that just seems impossible. Instead, Trump is going to win by a large popular vote margin and a near record electoral vote margin.
He is. What is the story with using a moniker?. What does this clown have to hide? Use your real name, this is not grammar school.
I predict 324 EVs for DJT and that is not subject to change.
“Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.”
I’d like to think that picking up NH, NV and/or MN might allow a little breathing room.
Still cannot fathom how such an extraordinary leader like PDJT is literally fighting for all our lives against a woefully pathetic opponent such as Biden
Trump will be in the 320ish range +/- 10
At the minimum, I expect Trump to take the states he took in 2016. That’s a low 300s victory.
His campaign is better than 2016 and he has 4 years of great success. His base is even more energized than 2016.
My assessment of Biden is that he is a worse candidate than Hillary, but someone pointed out he’s more likable. Maybe. That’s a low bar to clear.
My range for Trump’s victory is 300-355. That’s not allowing for any states to be lost by fraud. If we lose one or two states to fraud, then we’re at 270-325.
I’m predicting 274. Biden takes Michigan but Trump takes Wisconsin and a surprise in New Hampshire.
Great interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) here where he breaks down his very successful polling method (Correct in both 2016 and 2018) and gives his predictions for 4 battleground states:
https://luckboxmagazine.com/TPT/
He thinks the “shy Trump voter” numbers are even higher this year than in 2016.
And sets the record straight that he still does not add anything to the Trump numbers to make up for that (as others had accused.) He just uses a lot more platforms to try to reach more of the those voters who are VERY reluctant to respond to polls.
Also, this was interesting....he said Republicans are hard to poll because they are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Also said that they see lots of voters who say they are going to vote for Biden but based on how they answered other questions like do you approve of fracking (they do); do you support strict constructionist supreme court justices (they do); do you support defunding the police (they don’t.) he believes they are lying about voting for Biden but he still records them as Biden voters...:-)
Said his polls show Trump is doing great with Hispanic and black voters. His polls predict mid to high teens for black vote. Said Trump actually got 10% of the black vote in 2016 even though exit polls showed 8%. Said voters who don’t want to disclose they are voting for Trump over the phone sure don’t want to admit it to a kid with a clip board after voting...:-)
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett will stop any counting beyond 1 week. I think Trump will win about 280 electoral college votes.
“If the silent Trump vote is 2%, he has a chance of winning. At 4% it is likely Trump wins. Between 2% and 4% it becomes a question of turnout.”
_______________________________________
Pollsters say the “shy” Trump voter is now larger than in 2016. In recent PA poll 65% of voters said there is a significant “shy” vote. 30% of respondents say they are uncomfortable disclosing who they will vote for.
Recent Bloomberg study says 11% of Republicans; 10% of Independents and 5% of Democrats will not disclose who they intend to vote for.
Response rates for polls have plummeted (now down to 1-2%) Republicans are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Currently polls have no way to capture the shy vote so polls are now totally inaccurate.
Trump is going to add to his electoral college win from 2016
I am Praying Trump takes Mi. and brings John James with him!! People in Michigan are PISSED I think Trump has a shot!!
James is polling slightly ahead of Trump. This is the Senate seat Cahaly thinks Republicans have the best chance of taking from the dems.
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