Posted on 10/16/2020 7:21:40 AM PDT by hsmomx3
PHOENIX — Just 19 days before the November election, Democratic challengers continue to maintain their leads in the two races at the top of Arizona’s November ballot, according to a new poll released Thursday.
The OH Predictive Insights survey of likely voters shows:
- In the presidential race, Democrat Joe Biden holds a four-point lead over President Donald Trump, 49% to 45%. Over the last six months, the former vice president has consistently led Trump by three to four points in polling averages.
Only one Republican presidential nominee has lost Arizona in the last 72 years.
- In the U.S. Senate election, Democrat Mark Kelly, a former space shuttle commander, leads GOP Sen. Martha McSally by five points, 50% to 45%.
The race appears to be tightening as McSally’s nonstop barrage of negative advertising cuts into Kelly’s approval rating.
The survey shows Kelly’s favorability rating plunging from plus-17 points (the difference between his favorable and unfavorable ratings) to plus-7.
McSally’s favorability rating remains underwater, at minus-7 points.
The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points.
Both Trump and McSally have led just a handful of the roughly three dozen polls in Arizona since January.
Arizona is being widely watched as a first-time swing state that could deliver the White House and the U.S. Senate to Democrats.
The poll comes as tens of thousands of Arizonans have already cast early ballot in an election likely to shatter turnout records.
Phoenix-based OH Predictive’s poll also shows the “yes” side in the lead on both of Arizona’s ballot propositions:
- On Proposition 207, which would legalize recreational marijuana, 55% of respondents were in support, 37% were opposed.
- Proposition 208, the Invest in Education Act, would impose an income tax surcharge on high earners in order to create an $825 million-a-year revenue stream for K-12 schools. Prop 208 is in the lead, 55% to 39%, according to the poll.
I have NOT seen or heard of any poll that shows Trump or McSally in the lead either on local Phoenix TV or in the papers.
Even with Kelly and his cops are pigs statement?
That was one of his staffers.
Should have built a wall on their California border too.
Ah, figures he would hire someone like that.
Survey’s and Polls?
Really? Bribing the ballet workers for info?
If it was someone on his staff it can be laid at Kelly’s feet.
Simple AD - “Democrat Mark Kelly and his Campaign believe the police are “Worthless F—king Pigs”. Is that what you want your Senator to believe?”
KEEP this front and center for the balance of the campaign.
I have NOT seen or heard of any poll that shows Trump or McSally in the lead either on local Phoenix TV or in the papers.
*************
And you likely won’t. The purpose of the polls is not to fairly inform.
I find it hard to believe a huge tax increase for funding schools will pass when most parents are educating their kids at home with almost no support from the schools. I don’t know of anyone with school age kids who respects the teachers right now.
Show the cross tabs
The latest Beloved* Trafalgar Group Poll has Trump up by 4 in Arizona. But even they haven't managed to salvage the McSally Senate race for us yet (Kelly is up by 2, so they say). Both polls were released within the past 7 days so they're still pretty fresh, FWTW.
* as long as they tell us what we want to hear
Yep and AZ media leans heavily to the left.
I wanted to post this to encourage everyone to get out and vote.
What disturbs me are people like my parents who have internet access, but they watch/believe CNN, local news, and the local AZ Rag. They refuse to seek out information on the internet.
School taxes pass 99.9% of the time here. I vote NO. Our school taxes went up via our property tax statement we received in September.
Yeah, but if they do that Cindy McCain or Mike Bloomberg might not invite them to their next cocktail party.
That’s more important than winning a silly election.
They would never show this :(
I’m seeing/hearing 20 Kelly ads for every McSally ad. I don’t think ANY of Kelly’s ads mention he is a democrat. None have any specifics either - just, “I’ll fund training so the poor can get good jobs” stuff. Hint: People who are poor and who stay poor almost never have the ability to learn high tech skills.
If McSally is pulling 5 points down now, she might have a chance. The few ads she is running now almost seem worth listening to.
Evidence of Californication but let’s pray it can be overcome.
Wife and I are going in to the early voting location this morning to do our part.
Is Trump scheduled to go to AZ?
He should go and spend 10 minutes talking about the “worthless F—king pigs” comment. Go SAVAGE on Kelly.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.