Posted on 10/19/2020 7:59:20 AM PDT by Kaslin
One of the main COVID-19 statistics used by the CDC is referred to as the "percent of expected deaths" in 2020 when compared to previous years. The CDC estimated a number for total deaths it expects in 2020. The CDC then compares the actual reported number of deaths in 2020 to the number of deaths that the CDC estimated to be expected in 2020. Deaths above the "expected deaths" number are then suggested to have been caused by COVID-19.
On its main COVID-19 data page, the CDC labels the comparison between the reported number of deaths in 2020 and the expected number of deaths in 2020 as the "percent of expected deaths." To estimate the expected deaths in 2020, the CDC is using the average total deaths (also known as the mean of total deaths) from 2017, 2018, and 2019.
The CDC's number of expected deaths in 2020 requires close evaluation. The CDC's data for 1999–2018 are found here (click "I agree"). Data from 2019 are more difficult to find but are obtainable here (click "Downloads," then "Download data"; the total deaths for 2019 was determined by adding column "K" from rows 171 to 222, which are data for weeks 1–52 of 2019).
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The CDC appears to be grouped with the WHO with regards to their apparent neglect to take (or pass) a first year stats course before going to med school.
CDC accounts for the variation year over year by extending the average by a statistically significant amount before calling anything “excess”. In other words, if you had 100 deaths in a given jurisdiction in a given week each year for the past 5 years, 101 is NOT considered excess, but 150 surely is.
All of their methodology is covered in the technical notes here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Article is trying to instill doubt in the reader, but it’s clear the author doesn’t understand how the thresholds work.
Wow, these are basic issues a college freshman would catch, if not a high school stats student.
Business closure and mandatory isolation will induce excess death as well.
Corollary vs. Cause
Bogus.
“Now for the main topic of this article: the CDC misrepresents excess deaths in 2020 by using a misleading and inappropriate method to estimate expected deaths. Look above at the total deaths in 2017, 2018, and 2019 compared to the previous years. The CDC reports that the total deaths increased in large amounts from 2009 to 2016 and then suddenly stopped increasing in 2018 and 2019. While that is possible, it is worth noting as an odd trend in the data.”
The obvious reality is not all of the data is in.
Of similar importance is medical science does improve. Fewer die.
Of lesser importance later in the article, but very significant, immigration, legal or otherwise, are not elderly. They won’t die as soon after their numbers are added to population so population growth rate need not be accompanied by similar death counts.
There is nothing amiss with this data.
The usual claptrap about the car accident guy dying who had a positive Covid test is still mentioned some places by the uninformed. There are far, far more old folks living at home, often alone, who catch the virus, don’t know they have it, try to tough it out and die. The cops show up, load the body on the stretcher and send it to the morgue. There may never be a Covid test on the body. Probably won’t be one. The guy was 80 years old. Why bother?
The odds of undercounting are far higher than overcounting because the scenario above is far more credible than the car accident death who had previously tested positive, and btw, maybe the disease caused a breathing episode that caused the crash.
In general the CDC’s excess death pages are the most immune to agenda. Case numbers have variable testing numbers embedded. CoVid death numbers can have the two points above embedded in them.
But excess deaths are ALL CAUSES. More people are dying this year. More than the official CoVid death count (which reinforces the under-reporting scenario). The most interesting part of Excess Deaths is the curve of normal year deaths by month. More people in the US die in winter than summer. It’s a substantial difference.
The Excess Death curves have flattened some, not entirely, but some, as the upward curve in normal death count schedule arrives this winter. This is good.
You don’t address the numbers in the story in any way. All you are saying is that for whatever wrong number the CDC shows, you believe they say a 50% increase shows some amount of legitimate “excess.”
Yes. The method the CDC uses to calculate the Flu is pretty simple. They assume that only 10% of flu patients get tested. They “know” the tested number. They estimate the “cases”. They know the number hospitalized.
When someone dies if influenza is on the certificate, they will count it. If someone dies of pneumonia, they assume its a flu death. Comorbidities are taken into consideration as secondary, contributing causes.
When you are talking about numbers in the millions (people in the US) you are NEVER going to use absolute, accurate numbers. Estimates based on statistically modeling is going to get you close enough.
People are relying on a scientific world that has always relied on statistics for their findings. It is clear that the average American does not comprehend “estimates”, “projections”, and basic math.
What this is telling us is that reporters and “journalists” and people on internet forums do not take the time to understand how stuff works, how it has always worked, and how to come to conclusions based on imperfect information.
The people running the medical systems know a lot of stuff. Communicating with functional ignorant populations is not one of them.
Okay, explain it to us.
So, you agree the “car accident” deaths with COVID are legitimate, but you call that “claptrap?”
There are two causes of death on death certificates: immediate and underlying. The immediate cause of death is the thing that finished you off. For a terminal cancer patient, this might be listed as multiple organ failure. The underlying cause of death is the disease or injury that initiated the chain of events ultimately leading to death. A cancer patient may die when their organs fail, but the underlying cause of their death was cancer.
If you get stabbed and you bleed out because you’re a hemophiliac - whereas a healthy individual would likely have survived - your death is still coded such that stabbing/homicide is the underlying cause of death and the immediate cause of death is exsanguination. The death certificate also has a place to list underlying conditions that contributed to your death. In this case, hemophilia would be listed. But you didn’t die of hemophilia; you died because you got stabbed.
This is how deaths have been coded in the US for decades. The expectation for medical examiners and the like is that a clear path from the beginning of the chain of events to the end is described to the best of their ability given the available medical knowledge.
The CDC juggling numbers is a lot like a one armed juggler.
Not even as good as a stopped clock. They are never right.
Did you read what’s already stated in the link I provided? Did you have specific questions about it? The technical notes on methodology are pretty clear.
The number of apparent mistakes where a death is misattributed to COVID-19 is dwarfed by the missed cases - primarily early on when few people knew what to look for and no tests were available - as evidenced by the excess mortality figures. Causes of death like dementia that are known to be major factors in COVID-19 survival rates spiked way up at the start of the pandemic before testing was available. When tests became available, those deaths returned to normal. This is ~40,000 missing COVID-19 deaths. There’s likely fewer than two dozen mistakes in the other direction.
The infatuation with this flu is off the charts. Wait... not infatuation... orgasmic OBSESSION!
The thing that I find interesting is that even after grossly manipulating the numbers... alll that they can come up with is a little over 200,000 “Covid Deaths” when cancer, heart disease, and the real killers are in the millions. The CDC has claimed numerous times in the past that smoking is directly attributable for 500,000 to 600,000 deaths per year. Should we shut down the economy and all hold our breath until everyone stops smoking?
I’m from the government should read,
I’m from the government and here to lie to you.
Those cases where COVID was applied to car accidents were not “apparent mistakes,” but a matter of interpreting every COVID positive case, regardless of actual reason of death, to COVID. This was policy and not how we interpret the impact of the flu.
I don’t deny there are also “missed cases,” as well, but we have been estimating COVID positives when tests weren’t available and we’ve had tests for a relative long while now, so there shouldn’t be any deaths of consequence that went unrecorded as “COVID positive.”
The original poster also called people pointing these things out as “uninformed,” yet he then goes on to say such facts were legitimate.
In other words, he is saying he himself is “uninformed.”
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