what the magic # needed by the Dems going into Nov 3?
Aftger early voting and VBM in 2016 (one day before Election Day), Hillary led by 775,000 votes and we out-voted them by 885,000 on Election Day itself.
I don’t believe in magic numbers, but I will say this: Democrats are WAAAAAAYYYY underperforming polling. 89% of Democrats say they will vote early, compared to only 67% of Republicans. Republicans are only supposed to edge Democrats on in-person early voting by 30-27, and they’re leading 45-39. They’re supposed to have 59% more votes by mail, and they only have 45% more returned, and only 25% more unreturned. (Republicans started out very slow to return, and are catching up.)
All this suggests that Democrats are HUGELY under-delivering on early voting. But will they show up ON Election Day? Or will Republicans fail to show up even worse on Election Day than Dems failed to mail in their ballots?