Florida Early Vote update, 10/23/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/23/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Keep in mind the ballot factory in Broward has been shut down.”

What does that mean?

[LS]

Hillsborough just went R by 1300 ballots.
Miami-Dade is now a D advantage of 275
Palm Beach around 2% D advantage.

WOW.

[LS]

Yeah but Rs are blowing it out. Over 162,000 here at 12:00 EST. Over the weekend, we’ll add mores than 100,000.

I think the Ds will be in NEGATIVE territory by election day.

[LS]

They did. Rs took the LEAD in Hillsborough.

[SpeedyInTexas]

The state VBM return rate is 57.1%

Ds 60.7%
Rs 56.4
Ms 50.0 (minor parties)
NPA 51.4 (no party affiliation)

Rs are closing in on state average 56.4 vs 57.1. Closest I’ve seen them.

Ds way over performing.
No Party Affiliation greatly under performing.

NPA had the lowest turnout in 2016.
Ds 74, Rs 81, NPA 63%

NPA VBM numbers indicate they will be the lowest of the 3 groups again in 2020.

[Owen]

The yet-to-open red counties are not huge.

maybe 20-30K net GOP out of all of them in sum

[Coop]

The point on the red counties is they will improve already impressive GOP performance.

[Owen]

The occasional comment appears about Dems voting Trump and Quisling Republicans voting Biden, and no one can know about that yet so that’s ignorable.

But the question of VBM numbers being pre or post screening for rejection . . . that should be a phone call.

[SpeedyInTexas]

This was posted by floridalife68 a couple of days ago. No reason to doubt the numbers. A few counties started voting 10/22 but most don’t start til 10/24. A bunch of votes there. 100k net. Plus many Ds VBM, so even more from an IPEV perspective. Won’t get all this weekend, but going to net alot over the next week.

“Yes Speedy Here is some of the Red Counties that have not started EV and their Round Number of GOPers over Dems in each:

Baker....... 6k More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Bay....... 40k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Columbia.... 9k More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Glades...... 1k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Gulf.......2.5K More GOP starts Oct 24th
Hardee...... 2k More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Highlands...13K More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Suwannee.... 7k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Union....... 2k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Walton......26K More GOP starts Oct 24th”

[SpeedyInTexas]

Following up the VBM return rate thoughts.

Rs VBM return rate now only 4.3 points behind Ds.

If Ds really hit 86.3%, Rs on pace for 82%.

Both are stunning numbers.

[Cathi]

The Trump campaign, RNC, and their JFCs saw a record-breaking $26 million haul around last night’s final presidential debate.

[SpeedyInTexas]

From Schale. I assume correct. Ds only go 60% of their voters left. We got 67%. Who runs out of voters first???

“Turnout by party (as of last night - obviously has grown since then):

Dem: 39.8%
GOP: 32.5%
NPA: 24.7%”

[SpeedyInTexas]

“The Trump campaign, RNC, and their JFCs saw a record-breaking $26 million haul around last night’s final presidential debate.”

Nice. Didn’t watch the debate but reviews say President did well.

[Owen]

Bay had 87K total votes in 2016. Net 40K GOP.

The map shows Advantage Biden 5K VBM vs 2016.

The only other county of signif would be Walton which was 30K total 2016 votes. The map reads Advantage Biden by 2K votes VBM vs 2016.

20-30K net, maybe 40K if VBM dies out. We would need big population shifts from 2016 for 100K. The other counties are sub 20K total votes.

[Ravi]

Not insignificant

[Coop]

I think it was Speedy earlier in the thread provided raw rejection #s for 2016 VBM. Should be easy to calculate a percentage and apply it to 2020 ballots. Might even be a good idea to bump up the percentage of failures (20%? - I dunno) since Dems seem to struggle with FL ballots. 🙄

[SpeedyInTexas]

Ralston on NV. VBM has slowed down. Not clear yet. Could be slow down in returns or slow down in processing/reporting from Clark.

"The real question as we head into the last day of the first week of early voting is whether the GOP can continue to subtract from the Dem lead every day or whether enough mail votes will come in to help the Dems build on the votes they have already banked. If the GOP does continue to subtract from the Dems lead for the next week, this is going to be very close.

If there is any pattern developing – and because this year is so different, I am cautious – the last four days of early voting show the Dems losing ground every day, getting about 9,000 or 10,000 votes a day with the GOP at 12,000 or 13,000. Been pretty steady since Monday, as you can see."

[SpeedyInTexas]

160,000 invalid votes in Florida in 2016.

Seems likely 200k+ this year.

Could even approach 300k if Dem/Dim voters can’t fill out a ballot correctly.

[Owen]

Ya, there was some focus on total return % VBM and rejection takes that down.

Would not lean on that too very much. If counts were close there would be a shotgun spread of lawsuits to get them all accepted.

[Rumierules]

I’m showing that Ds lead Rs in IPEV in just 9 counties:

Duval
Broward
Alachua
Leon
Gadsden
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Miami-Dade

5 of these are in the top 10 counties in terms of size: Miami-Dade; Broward; Palm Beach; Orange: and Duval.

While not all 67 counties are early, in-person voting now, those that aren’t are Trumpland.

Need to darken the red counties!