Posted on 10/23/2020 6:57:45 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
We are in the 3rd quarter of the game and the home team is back a stunning comeback.
Bayonets at the ready!
“10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%”
Dem combined lead down to 9 points from 15.9 points over 4 days.
Don’t forget the claymore mines.
“Do not go gentle into that good night”
Said the home team.
Too much at stake.
What does this mean in layman’s terms?
Do not go gentle into that good night
Dylan Thomas - 1914-1953
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Steady as she goes
New plan: Republicans take the lead next week and never look back.
Below numbers assume straight party-line voting and ignore a presumed 50/50 independent split vote.
Using in person early voting (IPEV) data from the Joeisdone site, after 4 days Republicans are averaging 155,343 ballots cast per day while Democrats are averaging 120,938. A healthy GOP delta of +34,405 per day. Pretty impressive.
But wait, not all counties are doing IPEV yet. Counties starting IPEV on Saturday, 10/24 (various sources):
The GOP had a +50K ballots cast advantage on 10/22. If we carry that forward as an average forward for the next 9 days (through 10/31), that's another 450K cut out of the Democrats' ~554K vote-by-mail ballots cast lead as of 10/22 (credit: ElectionCzar). 11/1 & 11/2 would probably see smaller GOP gains, or even small Dem gains, due to many counties wrapping up IPEV. But the current total (VBM + IPEV) Dem advantage could be completely wiped out based on current trends and counties remaining to come on line. Republicans might actually have a lead of ballots cast going into Election Day if vote-by-mail does taper off significantly (hasn’t happened yet).
But frankly the +50K GOP IPEV daily average may be low. Why?
How did those counties not yet doing IPEV vote in Nov 2016?
2016 United States presidential election in Florida
While Ds are over performing in VBM, Rs are winning in person voting.
According to Coach Trump, the R plan is to put up great numbers this weekend and the D combined lead will go down into the 300k’s.
A week from now in the 200k’s.
On November 3rd, Victory.
To paraphrase Mitch, “Leave No Vote Behind”.
“Don’t forget the claymore mines.”
Use when necessary.
So this is a 2nd straight day since 2018 we have cut into the D lead?
I use Florida official 8am report for numbers.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517
Correct!
byecomey...
Is your map updating properly this morning? For example, Hillsborough has been stuck on same number. I’m watching it because I want to see it change to light pink. ;)
I think 50k a day cut is ambitious, but an 18-20k daily cut is reasonable. If that happens, they will be nowhere near the 653k you project. However, what are the other scenarios where the 2 day trend would be reversed?
Okay, that’s close to the # I was expecting. I was probably looking at an older #. Thanks
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