bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
We are in the 3rd quarter of the game and the home team is back a stunning comeback.
Bayonets at the ready!
Steady as she goes
Below numbers assume straight party-line voting and ignore a presumed 50/50 independent split vote.
Using in person early voting (IPEV) data from the Joeisdone site, after 4 days Republicans are averaging 155,343 ballots cast per day while Democrats are averaging 120,938. A healthy GOP delta of +34,405 per day. Pretty impressive.
But wait, not all counties are doing IPEV yet. Counties starting IPEV on Saturday, 10/24 (various sources):
The GOP had a +50K ballots cast advantage on 10/22. If we carry that forward as an average forward for the next 9 days (through 10/31), that's another 450K cut out of the Democrats' ~554K vote-by-mail ballots cast lead as of 10/22 (credit: ElectionCzar). 11/1 & 11/2 would probably see smaller GOP gains, or even small Dem gains, due to many counties wrapping up IPEV. But the current total (VBM + IPEV) Dem advantage could be completely wiped out based on current trends and counties remaining to come on line. Republicans might actually have a lead of ballots cast going into Election Day if vote-by-mail does taper off significantly (hasn’t happened yet).
But frankly the +50K GOP IPEV daily average may be low. Why?
How did those counties not yet doing IPEV vote in Nov 2016?
2016 United States presidential election in Florida