Below numbers assume straight party-line voting and ignore a presumed 50/50 independent split vote.
Using in person early voting (IPEV) data from the Joeisdone site, after 4 days Republicans are averaging 155,343 ballots cast per day while Democrats are averaging 120,938. A healthy GOP delta of +34,405 per day. Pretty impressive.
But wait, not all counties are doing IPEV yet. Counties starting IPEV on Saturday, 10/24 (various sources):
The GOP had a +50K ballots cast advantage on 10/22. If we carry that forward as an average forward for the next 9 days (through 10/31), that's another 450K cut out of the Democrats' ~554K vote-by-mail ballots cast lead as of 10/22 (credit: ElectionCzar). 11/1 & 11/2 would probably see smaller GOP gains, or even small Dem gains, due to many counties wrapping up IPEV. But the current total (VBM + IPEV) Dem advantage could be completely wiped out based on current trends and counties remaining to come on line. Republicans might actually have a lead of ballots cast going into Election Day if vote-by-mail does taper off significantly (hasnt happened yet).
But frankly the +50K GOP IPEV daily average may be low. Why?
How did those counties not yet doing IPEV vote in Nov 2016?
2016 United States presidential election in Florida
I use Florida official 8am report for numbers.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517
Numbers from last night won’t include Miami-Dade County and Sarasota.
The official 8am report will have those numbers.
Amazing number crunching. Looking forward to what tomorrows GOP GOTV brings. Typically Saturdays have been a bit slower but I think tomorrow may be an exception.