The TIPP poll gives Trump only eight or 9% on the internals for African-American... I think a lot of polls have trouble picking up the actual African-American vote unless you do large numbers and if you have to do it by IVR text or email because many are scared to admit they’re voting for Trump. And if you do a small sample or you only get a hold of the people who are not scared to answer that question tand hey weight incorrectly... That’s why trafaglar does well.. He gets a hold of these type of voters so you don’t have to weight as much...
The very hardest core hard-core Trump voters are not difficult to poll, they are _impossible_ to poll.
They will not answer pollster’s questions—period.
Life is simple when you know the rules.
Exit polls had Trump at 8% in 2016, so it is at least consistent with that. Whether it is appropriate for 2020 is another matter. I imagine the percentage for black females (4% in 2016) won't budge much, but black males (13% in 2016) could approach 20%.