D VBM return rate is 70.4%. Yesterday was 68.1%
R VBM return rate is 67.8%
2.6 point gap. Smallest gap since beginning of election.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
In 2 days, Ds will reach their 2016 Election Eve VBM return rate. So they are ahead of 2016 pace and indicates D turnout will be up this year.
Last 2 day average gain was 1.8 point
1.8 * 5 + 70.4 = 79.4% VBM Return Rate trajectory.
Pretty high.
Rs need a high turnout this year, at least 2016s 81.2%.