[SpeedyInTexas]

Our favorite map and spreadsheet:

bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0

[SpeedyInTexas]

“10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5% ”

Gap down to 3.6 points.

Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.

Looking good

[Ravi]

You probably saw this video that byecomey had posted from Jake Novak of CNBC. Fascinating.

https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1320802361447796736
This map has taken over the election universe.

[Tercio]

First of all, many, many thanks for the time and effort that many of you have been contributing to this effort for all of these days. Between starting the threads, the map (it’s amazing), the “on the ground” reports, and the information from other states, it helps getting a sense of what is happening in Florida and some other of these key states.

I do have one question, however. I know it has been said that we still have many more “super voters” in reserve (I’m one of them). What is the method of determining whether a super voter has already voted or not? If this something that one can determine by analyzing the official information provided by the state? Or is this an informed estimate made by parties such as TargetSmart?

[Political Junkie Too]

It's probably too late now, but is it possible for byecomey to add extra buttons like the "Compare Early Votes to Active Registrations," but make it for remaining votes for Election Day?

Can we see where the votes that are left are, or does this visual not add any additional value?

-PJ

[Florida1181]

Interested to see if there is any kind of bump in Hillsborough/Tampa tomorrow. Trump is rallying in the parking lot of the football stadium. The football stadium is serving as an early voting location. Smart. Go to the rally, then go submit your early vote inside.

[CarolinaReaganFan]

So many numbers being thrown out ,it’s hard to follow.
I reinvested a lot of time to relearn since 2016.
I have to write this down so i don’t have to relearn again in 2024.(assuming i’ll be able to search to find this)
Thanks for doing this.
Let me know if you see major errors.

— >Key data and source

>90K 2016 (D-R) (MIV + IPEV) from your 2016 final
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3490855/posts

> 113K 2016 final R margin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

>193K new R registered voter gain (Thank you Ravi)
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3894122/posts

Assumptions:
(MIV + IPEV) is the only variable.
2020 ED R net gain = 2016 ED net + % new R registered
2016net =2020 is OK with lower turnout since R% higher
ev I’s split 50/50
ev R&D vote 100% for party
Registered voter turnout = 80% (for new R’s)
D’s voting method is 50% MIV, 25% IPEV , 25% ED
R’s voting method is 50% ED, 25% IPEV , 25% MIV
No cheating or massive voter fraud

So
2020 ED R net gain = 90K + 113K + (80%)* (50%)* 193K
2020 ED R net gain = 280K

UF = Uncounted Factors ( both help the R’s)
1) some MIV will be disqualified and more of those will be D’s
2) I’s went Trump about 53% in 2016, assuming ev I’s even split leaves some chips on the table

Scenerios:

A) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 300K > win by a hair due to UF
B) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 200K > win by about the2016 margin
C) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 100K > win by ~double the16 margin
D) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 0 > win by ~triple the16 margin