Please ping LS on Twitter when Ralston’s blog post goes up. I don’t use Twitter.
Well, I don’t see an update on his website. MAYBE the update about rurals I posted earlier is the news. He usually has an evening update and I see the latest posted time right now is “Update, 5:20 PM, 10/28/20”.
I’m assuming the info below is the NEWS. Trump could net 70,000-80,000 in the rurals of NV vs 58,000 in 2016. Trump lost NV by 26,000.
“First, the Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it.
Second, in 2016, Trump won rural Nevada by 65-28. If we apply those numbers to the current turnout, he actually is up in rural Nevada by more than 40,000 votes. Indies in the rurals lean right. Might the president get above 70,000 and closer to 80,000? It’s possible.”
We need to analyse Ralston’s blog. I think he is overestimating Dem turnout and crossovers. Covid changed everything.