The Nate Silver take: Independents will save Biden in Florida and Nevada. I kid you not.
“For example, Biden lost independents by 13 points in Nevada in 2016, per the exit poll there. This year, he leads them by 3 points, in an average of the last 6 polls of the state. That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.”
“That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.”
Trump lost NV by 2.6 points.
A 6 point swing mean Trump loses NV by 8.6 points.
You are dreaming boy.
Every night, he was day dreaming.
Independents is literally all they have to hang their hats on now.
The last 6 polls of the state . . . we would need to see the internals of those. If the D/R mix in a poll differs from state registration, that indicates a zipcode imbalance, and that would affect Independent positions too.
Nate could be right. If Biden wins indies and the crossover battles he will win. But I have my doubts. We shall know in a week.
That’s pretty much the fall-back for everyone on the left. Funny whatever helps them sleep. They’ve probably never even heard of the “Indepedent American” party in NV and how it has close to 80,000 voters. And the assume NPAs in these red counties in FL are going to save Biden - good luck with that.
LS-—Check this out: As of this morning, in the Big 3 Democrat strongholds of Florida, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, the EV differential by percentage is virtually the exact same today as the EV differential at the end of the 2016 EV:
Palm Beach 2016: 47%(D) vs. 28%(R)
Palm Beach 2020: 48%(D) vs 27%(R)
Broward 2016: 55%(D) vs. 21%(R)
Broward 2020: 55%(D) vs. 21%(R)
Miami-D: 2016: 44%(D) vs. 29%(R)
Miami-D: 2016: 42%(D) vs. 31%(R)
D’s doing slightly better in Palm Beach Co., R’s doing more than slightly better in Miami-Dade, and dead even in Broward. However, Rs are expected to greatly out-perform these numbers during the remaining days of early voting (Rs out-voting Ds slightly in in-person voting in Palm and Miami-Dade, and over-performing in Broward).
Put this in perspective: The Dems spent a ship-ton of money and effort to get the EV out in FL, yet Rs will be closer in EV %s in all 3 big Florida Dem. counties this year as compared to 2016.