I’ve long figured that DNC ad spending is a form of money laundering and a payoff scheme to the networks/broadcasters.
So, much of that money is earmarked as a return of capital to their supporters.
But yeah, I think now we know that Trump has a bigger lead than in 2016 based upon where Trump is spending his time. His path to victory is about MI/PA/WI... 3 traditionally blue states. Bush won without those states. They are frosting, not meat and potatoes. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, notice nobody talking about Ohio... then the former three are padding.
Sorry, that’s not correct. If Biden wins all three of those states (WI, PA, MI) and all the current RCP “leaning blue” states, he’ll have 272 electoral votes.