“There’s nothing internal about it. Trump lost MN by 1.5 points four years ago. It borders key states IA and WI. The three Republicans (Trump/Johnson/McMullin) took over 51% of the MN vote. His campaign was always going to compete here. DJT can not only flip its 10 electoral votes, but also two key U.S. House seats and a U.S. Senate seat.”
All good points. Fischbach should be WAY ahead in heavily Republican CD-7 now that Peterson’s gone, but those others are going to be nailbiters. The Senate seat being in play at all is very refreshing.
BTW, is there any realistic chance of getting CD-3 back in 2020? I’m guessing ‘no’. It was represented by Republican squishes for years — maybe that’s the best we can do here? — but this Karen-heavy district flipped hard in 2018 and Paulsen (~70% liberal RINO) got destroyed by some 100% liberal Democrat.
“now that Peterson’s gone” Huh?
“BTW, is there any realistic chance of getting CD-3 back in 2020? I’m guessing ‘no’. It was represented by Republican squishes for years — maybe that’s the best we can do here? — but this Karen-heavy district flipped hard in 2018 and Paulsen (~70% liberal RINO) got destroyed by some 100% liberal Democrat.”
I lived in the 3rd for a number of years when I was younger and again more recently. It has always been one of the truly moderate GOP districts. The last three Republicans to represent that district were moderates - Frenzel, Ramstad and Paulson. As sad as it is to say this, you had to be a moderate to win the district.
But in the last 10-15 years, the 3rd was starting to turn purple. Once solid GOP suburbs like Edina and Minnetonka were starting to elect Dems at the legislative level. Even members of Congress like Ramstad and Paulson were starting to see diminished margins of victory. No longer could a Republican win 65-70% of the vote in that district.
There were lots of reasons - Minneapolis residents fleeing the city and moving to the ‘burbs but bringing their BS politics with them, self righteous millennials and Gen X’ers politically indoctrinated in high school and college were now buying homes, etc.
In 2018, we lost about 5 legislators from the 3rd District - even in strong GOP suburbs like Eden Prairie.
Kendall Qualls (a black Republican) has a compelling story and is running a surprisingly well-run and decently financed campaign but I’m afraid this district has permanently flipped because of suburban soccer moms and the detritus coming in from Minneapolis.